Mood:  surprised

Recruiting volunteers from the undead may just be the ticket for Fred Thompson.

Scary, ain't it?

Well, the Iowa caucus is just about over, and the projections are as follows, as of 9:40 PM EST:

Huckabee taking the GOP win; and the Dems are all knotted up with no clear winner between Clinton, Obama, and Edwards.

So, does it matter?

Yes, no, maybe. How's that for an answer?

"Huh?," you say.

The reason that I can give that answer is that in the caucuses held in Iowa since 1972, if you exclude those where the sitting president ran unopposed, the winner in Iowa won the party nomination an even 50% of the time.

So, yes, it sort of matters, and yet it doesn't decisively make the call. It matters in that there's momentum for the winner heading into New Hampshire, but that's not always enough. Bob Dole nearly doubled G.H.W. Bush in '88, but lost the nomination. John McCain finished fifth in 2000, yet trounced G.W. Bush in New Hampshire. And, in 1992, Bill Clinton came in fourth in Iowa, with only one quarter the number of the votes cast for "Uncommitted," yet still won the nomination and the general election. 

Huckabee beating Romney is a bit of news in that Romney significantly out spent Huckabee; however, Huckabee's play to the evangelical crowd may have done the trick in Iowa - not to mention the feel good, come-from-nowhere story that's been being spun about him in the press for the last two months. Will that carry over to New Hampshire and beyond? Perhaps a smidge, but not enough to win the Granite State nor the party's nomination. Despite heavy spending by Romney in N.H., my call is for McCain to take that state's primary once again, followed by Romney, then Huckabee. I feel that Huckabee will fall behind once more light is shed on his politics and his past. To my mind, he's the flavor of the month. Sooner or later, the press will turn on him, as they did with Howard Dean in '04.

As for the Dems, now there's a toss up. It's going to be an interesting ride, and then an even more interesting turn as a running mate will have to be selected. Too early for Corporate Satan to glean a winner.  But, I will endorse McCain for the GOP ticket's lead spot. 

AP Photo by Jeff Chiu