I've been waiting for an in-depth look at the new Group A playoff proposal, and, well, to no surprise, no one's done one. Then I remembered that old Chumbawamba song (no, not Tubthumping... another one) ... If it is to be, it is up to me. So .... here's my mini-thesis.
The VHSL Executive Committee will meet this Thursday (May 6th) and vote on a number of items, includung a piece of "emergency" legislation that would drastically change the Group A football playoffs, if three-fourths of the committee votes yes.
This proposal would trash the current Division and seeding systems. Group A would switch to a "hard number" cutoff, with Division 2 being schools with an ADM of at least 475 and Division 1 having ADMs of 474 and lower. Since this process would produce unbalanced Divisions within the Regions, the suggested way to make this work is be eliminate Regional bids altogether (and Regional playoffs) and award bids at the state level.
I decided to see what the 2009 playoffs would have looked like if the state was split at 475 or higher for Div. 2, and an imaginary line divided the East & West.
First, I listed every Group A team in order based on their final rating.
Then I noted the D2 schools... all 38 of 'em, leaving 48 in Div. 1.
[side note... If the cut-off were at 450, the split would be more even... 44 in D2 & 42 in D1. This would have moved a couple of highly ranked teams, George Wythe & J.J. Kelly to Div. 2.]
{Second note... To be fair, using the Sept, 2009 ADM numbers to project 2011, Div. 1 will only have 5 more schools than Div. 2 ... 51 to 46.
IF the Wise County schools consolidate, Div. 1 will lose five and Div. 2 will add two, making Div. 2 the larger one, 48 to 46.}
Then I checked the Regions of the Div. 2 schools and found ...
A-7, B-20, C-5 & D-6, so I had to move a few schools from Region B to the West.
I had the option of moving 6 teams from the (all-D2) Shenandoah District or
5 teams from the Dogwood (which also has two D1 teams).
Based on travel, I went with the Shenandoah, giving the East 21 & the West 17.
Then I checked the Regions of the Div. 1 schools and found ...
A-12, B-3, C-17 & D-16, so I had to move about half of the Region C schools to the East.
The Pioneer & Three Rivers got the boot, giving the East 23 & the West 25.
[You know how some people say "Virginia ends at Roanoke"? Well, under this arrangement, Giles is in the Eastern half of the state.)
Next, I put each team in either the East or the West, then gave them their seed.
Finally, I seperated the Div. 2 and Div. 1 teams and listed their 1st round games. From there, you can easily pick whoever you want to win each game to create your own bracket. I decided to pick a few upsets that would've created the most interesting travel scenarios.
D2 seeds D1 seeds
--------------------
27.0 Gate City D2 W1
26.2 Essex D2 E1
24.2 Clarke Co. D2 *E2
24.2 Gretna D2 *E3
24.0 Clintwood W1
24.0 Sussex Central E1
23.6 Buckingham Co. D2 E4
23.1 King William D2 E5
22.9 Appomattox D2 E6
22.7 Riverheads D2 W2
22.6 Altavista E2
22.3 Holston W2
21.9 J.I. Burton W3
21.8 Wash. & Lee D2 E7
21.2 George Wythe W4
21.0 Lebanon D2 W3
21.0 Madison Co. D2 E8
21.0 West Point E3
20.9 J.J. Kelly **W5
20.9 Chilhowie **W6
20.8 Franklin E4
20.7 Ft. Chiswell D2 W4
20.7 Radford E5
20.6 East. Mont. E6
20.1 Powell Valley D2 W5
20.0 Lancaster E7
19.8 Va. High D2 W6
19.7 George Mason D2 E9
19.7 Giles D2 W7
18.9 Glenvar D2 W8
18.8 Hurley W7
18.5 Dan River D2 E10
18.3 Buffalo Gap D2 W9
18.2 Haysi W8
18.1 Bath Co. E8
18.0 Central (W) D2 W10
17.5 Thomas Walker W9
17.2 Lunenburg E9
17.1 Randolph-Henry D2 E11
16.9 James River E10
16.8 Appalachia W10
16.7 St. Paul W11
16.5 Middlesex E11
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D2 seeds D1 seeds
--------------------
16.4 Covington E12
15.9 Honaker W12
15.6 Floyd Co. D2 W11
15.5 W. Campbell E13
15.1 Twin Springs W13
15.0 Cumberland D2 E12
15.0 Luray D2 W12
14.7 Charles City E14
14.6 Col. Beach E15
14.5 Mathews E16
14.3 Pound W14
14.2 Nelson Co. D2 E13
14.2 Northumberland E17
14.1 Rural Retreat W15
13.9 Grayson Co. D2 W13
13.7 Amelia Co. D2 E14
13.7 John Battle D2 W14
13.5 Lee D2 W15
13.4 Man. Park D2 E15
13.4 Rappahannock E18
13.3 Narrows W16
13.2 Windsor D2 E16
13.1 SJ (MJ) D2 W16
13.1 Nandua D2 E17
12.8 Galax W17
12.8 N'hampton D2 E18
12.5 Ervinton W18
12.3 Surry E19
12.1 Coeburn W19
11.9 Chatham D2 E19
11.9 PH (GS) W20
11.6 Page D2 W17
11.5 K&Q Cent. E20
11.4 Rye Cove W21
11.3 Bland Co. W22
11.3 Northwood W23
11.1 Strasburg D2 E20
11.0 Parry McCluer E21
10.8 Castlewood W24
10.5 Auburn E22
10.4 Craig Co. E23
8.9 Twin Valley W25
8.0 Arcadia D2 E21
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* Clarke wins the tie-breaker over Gretna ** I gave JJ Kelly a higher seed than Chilhowie due to better overall record
- - - - Div. 2 - - - - 27.0 Gate City D2 W1 26.2 Essex D2 E1 24.2 Clarke Co. D2 *E2 24.2 Gretna D2 *E3 23.6 Buckingham Co. D2 E4 23.1 King William D2 E5 22.9 Appomattox D2 E6 22.7 Riverheads D2 W2 21.8 Wash. & Lee D2 E7 21.0 Lebanon D2 W3 21.0 Madison Co. D2 E8 20.7 Ft. Chiswell D2 W4 20.1 Powell Valley D2 W5 19.8 Va. High D2 W6 19.7 George Mason D2 E9 19.7 Giles D2 W7 18.9 Glenvar D2 W8 18.5 Dan River D2 E10 18.3 Buffalo Gap D2 W9 18.0 Central (W) D2 W10 17.1 Randolph-Henry D2 E11 15.6 Floyd Co. D2 W11 15.0 Cumberland D2 E12 15.0 Luray D2 W12 14.2 Nelson Co. D2 E13 13.9 Grayson Co. D2 W13 13.7 Amelia Co. D2 E14 13.7 John Battle D2 W14 13.5 Lee D2 W15 13.4 Man. Park D2 E15 13.2 Windsor D2 E16 13.1 SJ (MJ) D2 W16 13.1 Nandua D2 E17 12.8 N'hampton D2 E18 11.9 Chatham D2 E19 11.6 Page D2 W17 11.1 Strasburg D2 E20 8.0 Arcadia D2 E21 playoffs : SJ (MJ) W16 @ Gate City W1 !!! Windsor E16 @ Essex E1 Buffalo Gap W9 @ Glenvar W8 George Mason E9 @ Madison Co. E8 Luray W12 @ Powell Valley W5 !!! Cumberland E12 @ King William E5 Grayson Co. W13 @ Ft. Chiswell W4 Nelson Co. E13 @ Buckingham Co. E4 John Battle W14 @ Lebanon W3 Amelia Co. E14 @ Gretna *E3 Floyd Co. W11 @ Va. High W6 Randolph-Henry E11 @ Appomattox E6 Central (Woodstock) W10 @ Giles W7 Dan River E10 @ Wash. & Lee E7 !!! Lee W15 @ Riverheads W2 !!! Man. Park E15 @ Clarke Co. *E2 (MIGHT create a rule to let Lee & SJ-MJ switch seeds, but do we really want that?) (Noticed that THREE Clinch Mtn. teams are in the same "pod" w/Floyd Co.) ---- ----- (If Buffalo Gap pulled an upset) Buffalo Gap W9 @ Gate City W1 !!! Madison Co. E8 @ Essex E1 !!! Powell Valley W5 @ Ft. Chiswell W4 King William E5 @ Buckingham Co. E4 Va. High W6 @ Lebanon W3 Appomattox E6 @ Gretna *E3 Giles W7 @ Riverheads W2 Wash. & Lee E7 @ Clarke Co. *E2 !!! ---- ----- (If Powell Valley pulled an upset) Powell Valley W5 @ Gate City W1 Buckingham Co. E4 @ Essex E1 Lebanon W3 @ Riverheads W2 !!! Gretna *E3 @ Clarke Co. *E2 ---- ----- (If Lebanon pulled an upset) Clarke Co. *E2 @ Gate City W1 Lebanon W3 @ Essex E1 ---- ----- Finals : Gate City vs. Essex NOTES : Gate City could've hosted THREE Region B teams. (There was talk about limiting team travel to 200 miles. If that happens, some games will be played at neutral sites. Gate City might have only ended up with one game at Legion - PV. And if the neutral site were to be around the mid-point, the #1 seed would have had THREE "home" games that were around three hours away.) Riverheads could've hosted Lee and Lebanon (from the Clinch Mtn.) & Giles. Lebanon could've hosted district rivals John Battle AND Va. High, traveled to Riverheads and Essex, then met district rival Gate City in the finals. If Powell Valley had upset Gate City, and a neutral field was needed because the visitors traveled more than 200 miles, where would Lebanon have played Clarke Co.? Honaker, Richlands or Emory? Where would Clarke @ Gate City have been? Ben Hur? Big Stone? Kingsport?
- - - - Div. 1 - - - - 24.0 Clintwood W1 24.0 Sussex Central E1 22.6 Altavista E2 22.3 Holston W2 21.9 J.I. Burton W3 21.2 George Wythe W4 21.0 West Point E3 20.9 J.J. Kelly *W5 20.9 Chilhowie *W6 20.8 Franklin E4 20.7 Radford E5 20.6 East. Mont. E6 20.0 Lancaster E7 18.8 Hurley W7 18.2 Haysi W8 18.1 Bath Co. E8 17.5 Thomas Walker W9 17.2 Lunenburg E9 16.9 James River E10 16.8 Appalachia W10 16.7 St. Paul W11 16.5 Middlesex E11 16.4 Covington E12 15.9 Honaker W12 15.5 W. Campbell E13 15.1 Twin Springs W13 14.7 Charles City E14 14.6 Col. Beach E15 14.5 Mathews E16 14.3 Pound W14 14.2 N'umberland E17 14.1 Rural Retreat W15 13.4 Rappahan. E18 13.3 Narrows W16 12.8 Galax W17 12.5 Ervinton W18 12.3 Surry E19 12.1 Coeburn W19 11.9 PH (GS) W20 11.5 K&Q Cent. E20 11.4 Rye Cove W21 11.3 Bland Co. W22 11.3 Northwood W23 11.0 Parry McCluer E21 10.8 Castlewood W24 10.5 Auburn E22 10.4 Craig Co. E23 8.9 Twin Valley W25 playoffs : Narrows W16 @ Clintwood W1 Mathews E16 @ Sussex Central E1 Thomas Walker W9 @ Haysi W8 Lunenburg E9 @ Bath Co. E8 Honaker W12 @ J.J. Kelly *W5 Covington E12 @ Radford E5 Twin Springs W13 @ George Wythe W4 W. Campbell E13 @ Franklin E4 Pound W14 @ J.I. Burton W3 Charles City E14 @ West Point E3 St. Paul W11 @ Chilhowie *W6 Middlesex E11 @ East. Mont. E6 !!! Appalachia W10 @ Hurley W7 James River E10 @ Lancaster E7 Rural Retreat W15 @ Holston W2 Col. Beach E15 @ Altavista E2 ---- ----- Haysi W8 @ Clintwood W1 Bath Co. E8 @ Sussex Central E1 !!! J.J. Kelly *W5 @ George Wythe W4 Radford E5 @ Franklin E4 !!! Chilhowie *W6 @ J.I. Burton W3 East. Mont. E6 @ West Point E3 !!! Hurley W7 @ Holston W2 Lancaster E7 @ Altavista E2 ---- ----- (IF Radford pulls an upset) George Wythe W4 @ Clintwood W1 Radford E5 @ Sussex Central E1 !!! J.I. Burton W3 @ Holston W2 West Point E3 @ Altavista E2 ---- ----- (IF Burton @ West Point pulled off upsets) West Point E3 @ Clintwood W1 J.I. Burton W3 @ Sussex Central E1 ------ possible finals : Clintwood - J.I. Burton, West Point - Sussex Central NOTES : Altavista could've hosted Colonial Beach, Lancaster (both Northern Neck) and West Point in consecutive weeks. Radford (Three Rivers) could've went to Franklin and Sussex Central (both Tri-Rivers) in consecutive weeks. Sussex Central could've hosted Bath Co., Radford and J.I. Burton in consecutive weeks. East. Mont. could've played Middlesex & West Point Just for kicks, I looked at the final rankings at VHSL-reference.com The W16 team, Narrows, was ranked 77th in Group A.
So, that's how things might've looked last Fall.
Would UVA-Wise have hosted the Div. 1 state quarter-finals?
How many fans would've traveled to those "!!!" games? And what about the semis?
Shoot... would ANY of the semis have been played as scheduled?
Yeah, probably... teams would've traveled Friday and the games would've been played Saturday.
Would Clarke have made it to Gate City by 3:00 Friday? Possibly.
Would West Point have made it to Clintwood by 3? NO WAY!
I wonder if they would have even made it to Wytheville. When/where would that game have been played?
Who would've payed for 2 more nights of lodging & food??
When would they have made it back home??? Monday???? Tuesday ?????
Oh, and this system is fairly similar to how they do it in North Carolina.
I think it's kinda ironic (Yeah, I really do think) that the Tarheels are also having a vote this week to change their system - in an effort to REDUCE travel.
(see stories in the Gaston Gazette and the Fayetteville Observer.
I think I've said enough.
(Except that I've got the Pussycat Dolls going through my head now... "be careful what you wish for 'cause you just might get it!" )
[Actually, I decided to add a page 2.]