NiE index »  Probabilites for charges in the game Napoleon in Europe

Chargebonus										Probability (%)																							Corresponding exact probabilites * 1/1296
Attacker			Defender			Net A - D				A wins			draw			D wins			A's killed			D's killed			A's routed			D's routed					A wins	draw	D wins	A's killed	D's killed	A's routed	D's routed
	+5			0			+5				90			4			5			1			76			14			4				1170	56	70	15	986	184	55
	+4			0			+4				84			6			10			3			66			18			7				1090	80	126	35	861	229	91
	+3			0			+3				76			8			16			5			56			20			10				986	104	206	70	721	265	136
	+2			0			+2				66			10			24			10			44			22			14				861	125	310	126	575	286	184
	+1			0			+1				56			11			34			16			34			22			18				721	140	435	206	435	286	229
	0			0			0				44			11			44			24			24			20			20				575	146	575	310	310	265	265
	0			+1			-1				34			11			56			34			16			18			22				435	140	721	435	206	229	286
	0			+2			-2				24			10			66			44			10			14			22				310	125	861	575	126	184	286
	0			+3			-3				16			8			76			56			3			10			20				206	104	986	721	70	136	265
	0			+4			-4				10			6			84			66			3			7			18				126	80	1090	861	35	91	229
	0			+5			-5				5			4			90			76			1			4			14				70	56	1170	986	15	55	184

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A little example: Heavy cavalry with combined arms charges squared Militia:

Attacker:     heavy cav. +1 combined arms +1 cav. vs inf. +2 inf. is squared -3 +1

Defender:     inf. is militia -1 -1

Attacker has a net charge bonus of +2 (Attacker +2, Defender 0), Net +2 column above shows a 66% probability for cavalry to win and only 10% chance of getting cavalry wiped out. Chance to eleminate the militia is almost fifty-fifty (44%).
A pretty sound decision will be to conclude the charge, but keep in mind that heavy cav. costs 12 prod. while militia cost only 4. If militia should fail to square net bonus gets +5 and militia is toast.