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Xan Rice, Dec 08, 2010 02:00 EST (6 days ago) on News: Main section | guardian.co.uk (Original Article)
The birth of the world's newest country
moves closer to reality today with the end of voter registration
for the southern Sudanese, clearing the last big obstacle before
the independence referendum next month.More than 3 million southerners
have signed up for the 9 January poll, which is likely result
in Africa's largest country being split in two. Disputes and delays
in registering voters had led many to suggest that the vote for
an independent south Sudan would have to be postponed a
dangerous outcome, given the huge weight of expectation there.
However, aided by a renewed international engagement over the
past two months, the registration process has passed peacefully
and smoothly in the semi-autonomous south.
Despite the registration window being extended for a week until
today, hopes are high that the vote will still go ahead on schedule.
"Logistical challenges remain but things look to be on track,"
said John Ashworth, an analyst who works with Sudan's churches.
"The momentum is there, and 99% of the international community
now say it should happen on time."
South Sudan's right to choose secession stems from the 2005 comprehensive
peace agreement, which ended a 20-year civil war between the non-Arab
south and the Arab-led north that claimed more than 2 million
lives.
The referendum is open to all southerners, including those living
in northern Sudan and the diaspora. A separate and simultaneous
referendum will take place in Abyei, an oil-producing area on
the north-south border.
Though the peace has held for the past six years, the mistrust
between the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in
the south and the president Omar al-Bashir's National Congress
party (NCP) in the north has not disappeared.
About three-quarters of Sudan's 500,000 daily barrels of oil come
from the south, and while this revenue is currently shared between
the two sides, the north will lose out if the country splits.
Many southerners believe Bashir will try to postpone their bid
for freedom to avoid giving up much of the country's petrodollar
income.
These suspicions led to many of the southerners living outside
south Sudan refusing to register for the referendum, fearing that
the Khartoum government will tamper with their votes.
The April elections that saw Bashir returned to power for another
term were plagued with irregularities in the north and, to a lesser
extent, in the south. For its part, the SPLM, which is mindful
of the situation in western Sahara, where Morocco has blocked
an internationally agreed referendum on independence for Saharawis
since 1991, warned at the weekend it would not accept a delay
in the poll "even for a single day".
While the UN and international community will have to play a prominent
role in ensuring there is no delay printing of ballot papers
has not yet begun and the African Union last week described the
referendum schedule as "desperately tight" diplomats
are also concentrating on persuading the NCP not to sabotage the
process.
The US has been leading the effort, offering Bashir and his government
incentives, from an easing of sanctions to debt relief, as long
as the vote is free and fair and the outcome respected.
But understanding the true intentions of northern leaders is difficult,
and nobody outside Khartoum knows how the politicians will react
if the vote comes out in favour of secession.
"The NCP does not have a collective will on this and I don't
think it even knows [what] it will do," said John Ryle, chairman
of the Rift Valley Institute, a research and advocacy organisation
that issued a recent report on the referendum. "Northern
Sudanese in general have not yet woken up to what separation might
mean." Adding to the uncertainly over the post-referendum
situation is the failure to implement key parts of the comprehensive
peace agreement, including the demarcation of the north-south
border.
The SPLM and NCP have also not agreed on how the oil would be
managed in future, which is critical since the only pipelines
from the southern oilfields run through the north.
Zach Vertin, Sudan analyst at the International Crisis Group thinktank,
who wrote a recent report on the country's future, said Bashir's
government was stalling to extract as many concessions from the
south and the international community as possible.
But he added that "the chances of a delayed vote have diminished
in recent weeks".
The Abyei referendum, which will see residents vote on whether
to join the north or south, remains in doubt however, and Vertin
said there may have be a negotiated settlement "Abyei
to the south in return for X" instead of a vote.
Regardless of what the NCP can negotiate, a divided Sudan will
weaken its hand in the north.
Opposition politicians are likely to blame Bashir for the country
breaking up, and the loss of a large chunk of oil revenue will
also hurt.
This uncertainty has led to some Sudan-watchers to suggest that
Bashir would consider using force to prevent secession.
But Vertin disagrees: "The prospect of a return to large-scale
conflict is limited. There's lots of positioning and rhetoric
but neither side wants war, or has anything to gain from it. It
would be a lose-lose scenario."