Archives of Predictions for Spring 2006 Severe Weather Season

• Quotes Archives:
• "That places it [march 10, outbreak] as the third-largest tornado outbreak in March on record. March 20-21, 1976 had 68 and March 13-14, 1990 had 59." - Dr. Greg Forbes TWC Meterologist.
• • It's not out of the question that we end up with a record number of severe weather reports by the time we reach June 1st if this pattern continues.

                - By AccuWeather.com Sr. Meteorologist Henry Margusita

• (NEW) "It is near speculation as to how frequently such a confluence of factors might occur. One such guess might be several hundred to five hundred  years. " - unknown regarding largest outbreak in 1974 April 3-4th.

May 11, 2006  - FINAL RELEASE PREDICTIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK

I have analyzed all outlooks, and have arrived at specific time frame for the Severe Weather outbreak. I'm predicting that these storms will hit between May 24th, and June 3rd. Now, if these events do not occur within this time frame my predictions would have been wrong. However, I have said will state that I will continue running this site because my predictions are generally accurate, and I do believe that 2006-2007 will be a very active severe weather seasons - thunderstorms / hurricanes. I hope that all have found my predictions useful, or at the least entertaining. I will no longer be posting anymore predictions until September 2006 when I will make next years predictions. At the moment I'm preparing for the possibility of this outbreak, and document it very well in the event it occurs. Since I'm the only one in the meteorological community predicting such, I will be the one and only one to have documented and become an authoritative figure on the '2006 mega outbreak'.

 I would like to predict winter weather events, and hurricane events. Gaining more experience into this is needed before I make any stab at these predictions. Some have entertained the possibility that these severe storms I speak could come in the way of a hurricane. This is highly true, because actually tornadoes are frequent in Hurricanes with cyclonic motion. Often times, a lot of damage is not caused by the hurricane itself, but by tornadoes that are spawned by imbedded thunderstorms.

VERDICT: Expected 2006 to be a a very unpredictable year. 100% certainty an outbreak will occur between 2006-2007 May-June-July seasons.

May 10, 2006  - SNOW in Great Lakes? Flooding in New England? Prediction holds true. Super Outbreak Eminenet

I originally said 4 month ago that flooding would occur before the super outbreak I predict for the Northeast. " "According to Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams of Accuweather.com, there is a strong potential for locally heavier rainfall that could lead to localized flooding, especially in central New England." Also, the Great Lakes is under a weather advisory as several inches is expected! The unusual cold air is a key component in making the severe weather outbreak hold true. Below I have some key temperatures which are substantially below normal.

So, at this point it's not a question if this outbreak will occur, it's if will it actually occur within the specified timeframe I have been mentioning over the course of 8 months. From empirical observations and key predictions up to the event I predicted, by mathematical probability I have predicted 4 events that would lead to the storms. That leaves 1/5 probability that the event will not occur at this time.  20% CHANCE that a super outbreak does not occur does not rule out a very severe weather event rivaling 1998, or a 1985 perhaps. I think I need to clarify what constitutes a super outbreak.Super outbreak would be more then 100 tornado reports, and 500+ wind related damage reports. Death toll could be 15-20, and many reports of hail damage. Although localized to some degree, outbreaks generally sweep a large area.

May 4, 2006 - VERIFIED BY EXPERTS - SPRING COULD BE VIOLENT

Northeast - Bastardi’s research indicates that this spring is similar to the spring seasons in 1954 and 1985, when there was a northwest flow over the Northeast during the months of June and July. During the summer of 1985, there was a major tornado outbreak over Ohio, Pennsylvania, Western New York and Southern Ontario. 

NEW PICTURES FROM MAY 31, 1985: Could be a scene from this May?

April 7, 2006 - Found more details on May 31 1998 for those who are interested

• http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu:7773/past/may31a/may31.htm

The more I analyze May 2006 I keep hoping that it does not happen. However, I was entertained the notion that what if it does not happen? Come June 1, 2006 nothing happens what will happen? The event probability will most likely decrease after May, but I can not rule out that June - July can yield this event. The next time frame would be August - October 2006.

I have compiled a list of important dates of major severe weather outbreaks such as this are not uncommon across the Northeast. Major severe events have occurred in the recent past, including July 3, 1997, July 15, 1995, May 29, 1995, July 5, 1992, May 2, 1992, August 28 1990, and July 10, 1989.

• April 7, 2006 - High Risk for  Severe weather extended into Friday
• "There is a high risk of severe weather tonight across the Central Plains. In a very rare move a High Risk alert has already been issued for Friday." - Accuweather.com
• "The National Weather Service describes this as a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION that could result in destructive tornadoes, hail up to 3" in diameter, dangerous lightning and wind gusts up to 70 mph." - Accuweather.com 
• "There have been 19 unconfirmed reports of tornadoes in eastern Kansas since 6:00 am CDT [4/6/2006], along with 162 reports of hail and 26 wind reports." -  - Accuweather.com

• UPDATE UPDATE APRIL 7, 2006 - NASHVILLE AREA 20+ REPORTS OF TORNADOES 4:38 PM
• 

April 6, 2006 - Possible Northeast Tornado Depictions Pictures

So what will May look like possibly when you look at your window? I have decided to give you an idea of what it COULD look like.

• April 6, 2006 - MASSIVE TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY
• This is an extremely dangerous situation... 'NWS Meterologist'   9:09 AM
•   
•    THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
     THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
     TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
     POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
•  
•  Below is the probabilistic map of Tornadic activity. 30% chance of Tornadoes today? This is by far the highest recorded since the early 90's.
• 
• As it stands, the number of Tornadoes reported this Spring along have suppressed all expectations I had for the the United States. We have a HISTORICAL RECORD NUMBER OF TORNADOES THIS SEASON. This is precursor to the weather we will see within the next 3-4 weeks in the Northeast. For the skeptics, I highly recommend you use common sense at this point and realize that weather patterns have been violent here, and abroad (refer to last article - Tornadoes in Israel).  YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

April 5, 2006 - Awkward Severe Weather Patterns (TORNADOES IN ISRAEL)

Tornado eyewitnesses: We've only seen such things on TV

By Tamara Traubman, Jack Khoury, Revital Levy-Stein, Haaretz Correspondents, and Haaretz Service

A tornado and other stormy weather wreaked havoc across Israel on Tuesday and weather-related accidents caused injuries to at least 70 people. The tornado and accompanying heavy storms raged across the Western Galilee, and hailstones the size of ping pong balls were reported. A total of 70 people, including 20 children, were admitted to the Nahariya hospital in the wake of the violent weather. Most of the patients suffered light injuries from flying objects or from road accidents. Two children, aged six and seven, suffered deep cuts in the storm. Meteorologist Nachum Malik confirmed that the Western Galilee storm was a tornado and said it was an indication of increasingly unpredictable weather in the country.

April 3, 2006 - Ravaging storms head towards Northeast

I woke up at 6:00 am this morning just to see where the wicked weather was going. At least 15 people in west Tennessee were killed as severe storms swept across the region, bringing the total death toll across the Midwest to 19, emergency officials said. Below are some pictures. Every single local station in Connecticut has showed radars, and as Bob Maxon Meterologist at NBC30 Hartford puts it - "violent weather... nasty".

 So where is all this heading? Well, the good news is our air mass is pretty stable, but points south of New Jersey this afternoon will be potentially under the gun for a pretty violent day. Expect tornadic activity, hail, wind, and vivid lightning from Washington D.C. to Charleston NC. Below I have posted the tornadic probability charts from NOAA NWS. I would go down south if I could, but I'm currently unable too!

April 2, 2006 - First Thunderstorms of the season New England (Photos)

Yesterdays storms did warrant a special statements from the NWS in Upton, NY. I decided to snap a few photos from my apartment which is located in Storrs, CT as the minor squall line approached.

May 2006 is looking more and more probable each day. Only 4 weeks away from May, and I'm really anxious, but nervous at the same time. I ADVISE that people start to precautions and have the proper plans in the event this rare rash of weather unfolds in the New England region. Remember, the atmosphere maintains a delicate thermal balance, so an idea I entertained in a previous update from January 06' was called the "rubber band" theory. We've stretched the band so long and so far in one direction, and eventually it comes shooting back, and in most cases, keeps going the opposite way.

April 1, 2006 - First Thunderstorms of the season New England

As of right now May is looking to be at the least the most destructive outbreak for the Northeast. In recent days I decided that the entire 2/3 of nation from the Midwest to the Northeast would be effected. My thinking was right as I found this article on the latest severe weather on Accuweather.com. 

• "The big story will be the next round of severe weather in the Plains. In fact, the overall weather pattern the next 7-10 days is almost a text book severe weather pattern for the Plains and Midwest. A series of storms will cross the country and each one will be capable of producing severe weather. Unlike last year which had a late start to the severe weather season, this year has started off with a bang and it will just continue for the next 7-10 days, and perhaps even beyond that. It's not out of the question that we end up with a record number of severe weather reports by the time we reach June 1st if this pattern continues."

              - By AccuWeather.com Sr. Meteorologist Henry Margusita

RADAR 2:24 PM 4/1/2006  - Peak of Weather Event

March 27, 2006 - May 31, 1998 Data Collection on F3 Twister in Mechanicville, NY

    CLICK HERE TO VIEW .PDF ANALYSIS - Detailed look at a topography enhanced supercell

March 26, 2006 - Fathers day 2002 severe weather outbreak western New England

     CLICK HERE TO VIEW .PDF ANALYSIS

It appears I'm not the only who is predicting such weather activity. This is from Michael McClellan whom my friend has gathered the following information.  The only difference is that he had made this original prediction for 2005. I to was predicting 2005 to be very violent year - yet it turned out to be a fluke and quite possibly the least severe season on record that I recall. However, lets assume he was a year off and I too was a year off.  This very well might be the year. For certain I had predicted 2005 - 2007 for the time of outbreak.

Kmetz: regarding you and your storms... or at least the last outbreak this month
Kmetz: NEW PREDICTION: 10/19/04 -- An unusually early spring, accompanied by bizarre climatological patterns, will spawn the worst rash of killer tornadoes since at least 1998. This activity may surpass all past seasons. Vector is March-May 2005.
Kmetz: COMMENTS (11/8/05): Apparently this was the worst outbreak of tornadoes in the US in over 30 years ... and at such an usual time of the year ... not including the rare touchdowns that occurred in California in the late winter and early spring. Definitely a PREDICTION FULFILLED.

March 10, 2006 - 1st United States Outbreak

It has come to my attention that the outbreak for May 2006 might span a bigger area then originally predicted.  Today is March 9th 2006 and is the first moderate severe weather event of the 2006 season, not early by historical record, but definitely quite potent for the time of season.  I'm extremely surprised at the 15% hatch area of tornado activity this early in the season, and the wind profile convection outlooks. This might be a precursor to dynamic upper air disturbances to come for May which will trigger the anticipated May 2006 outbreak. 

     "Severe Thunderstorms on A Rampage" - accuweather March 09, 2006 B

                                                                            - Sr. Meteorologist Henry Margusity                                  

March 5, 2006 - Past November Outbreak (Odd Climatological Swings)

/www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/11/16/severe.weather/index.html   Found this link, found it interesting. We barely missed a potential problem back in Nov of 05'. At the moment, temperatures are swinging quite dramatically from 20's to nearly 60 this coming weekend in the Northeast. This 'elastic' effect is exactly what I had predicted months ago. May will have to analyzed carefully in order to determine what week, and what day this event will occur. I suspect May 17th - May 26th give or take 4 days.