Details about May 2006 Outbreak:

I'm going to keep this simple as opposed to very technical. If you do not understand the nature of thunderstorms and tornadoes I advise you do some research. My predictions thus far for severe weather are excellent, with the exception of 2005.  Further inquiries should be directed via AOL/AIM at ns7654321 as I'm very busy. I am on Fridays at 10:00 PM - 11:00 PM, SATURDAY - 8:00 PM - 12:00 AM.

(NEW) Tornadoes in the Northeast? Believe it or not it happens!

Violent (F4 and F5) tornadoes are relatively rare in the northeast United States, but they do occur. The most recent occurred last Memorial Day when an F2 tornado ripped across Columbia County, New York. The tornado lifted as it approached the Massachusetts border. A short while later, an F3 to F4 tornado caused major damage across southern Berkshire County, Massachusetts. I have provided a valid hypothesis how the May devastating severe weather could be exacerbated by what is called 'TERRAIN CHANNELING'

The deadliest tornado in the Northeast, an F4, killed 94 people in Worcester, Massachusetts, in June 1953. In August, 1973, another F4 tornado struck Stockbridge, Massachusetts, killing 4. More recently in July, 1989, an F3 tornado moved across Schoharie County New York. The same thunderstorm complex that produced the Schoharie County tornado, later generated an F4 tornado in Hamden, Connecticut.

In addition to studying the meteorological conditions that produce violent tornadoes, meteorologists are studying the role that topography plays in their formation and intensity. New York and western New England possess complex topography. We have the Catskills, the Adirondacks and the mountains of western New England. The mountain ranges are separated by the Hudson and Mohawk River Valleys. To the west, Lake Ontario is the source of lake breezes that can help initiate summertime convection.

The State University of New York at Albany (SUNYA) has joined the NWS in a Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education and Training (COMET) project to study the Memorial Day 1995 tornado. In particular, we will be looking at the hypothesis that terrain channeling, by the Hudson Valley can on occasion create unusually favorable conditions for severe weather. In the Memorial Day Storm, it appears the Hudson Valley played a key role in the storm's intensification.

At about 330 pm EDT on May 29, 1995, a thunderstorm developed over central New York, a little northwest of Binghamton. The storm moved to the east during the next few hours crossing the Catskills and reaching the Hudson Valley just before 630 pm EDT. During the 3 hours the storm produced isolated reports of severe weather. When the storm reached the Hudson Valley it encountered air that was especially favorable for severe thunderstorm and tornado development. Very moist air (dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F) flowing northeast from New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania was funneled northward up the Hudson Valley. The added moisture made the air very unstable.

                                                   
                                                   


The wind flow in the lower atmosphere that day was from the southwest. However, since the Hudson Valley is oriented north to south, low level winds in the valley were more southerly. Turning the winds near the ground from southwest to south, increased the clockwise turning of the wind in the lower atmosphere. This increased turning of the wind and added instability, caused rapid strengthening of the thunderstorm as it reached the Hudson Valley. A tornado touched down in Columbia County at 640 pm EDT.

The National Weather Service's WSR-88D (Doppler radar) provided information on wind movement in the storm. Archived radar data was used to calculate the change in wind (shear) across the thunderstorm. As this shear value increases the strength of the storm's rotation increases. As the storm moved from central New York through the Catskills there was little change in the observed shear. However, when the storm reached the Hudson Valley there was a large increase in shear, indicating rapid intensification.

The first tornado lifted at 700 pm EDT. There was a large drop in the shear, shortly before the tornado dissipated. It appears that the area of high terrain in the southwest corner of Massachusetts, may have cut off the inflow of warm, moist air into the storm. Once the storm emerged into the valley to the east (where Great Barrington is located), it once again intensified and produced an F4 tornado.

Catastrophic Year - May 2006 - WHERE?:

Early in the day, there will be a threat of severe thunderstorms in late afternoon for southern Ontario, eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and New York. Between 2:30 p.m. EST - 9:00 PM, dozens of Tornado Watches will be issued. Will anybody be listening? The first tornados will strike causing several many deaths as it plows a path for several hours."

In order for May 2006 to come to fruition many factors need to come together. Although one can not predict these particular factors needed to yield what I'm calling  the most catastrophic severe weather outbreak I can only speculate as to the exact nature of the day or days these events will unfold. Since no record yet exists in the New England territories I will do my best to give you an idea of the upper air dynamics that will play out, and where I believe the most favorable areas will be for this catastrophic outbreak.

The blue line in the photo above represents a strong cold-front. Unusually strong at that, the temperature contrast will be between 30-35 degrees. Ahead of the front, temperatures could be in the mid to upper 90's with the passage of a warm front earlier on the day of the outbreak indicated by the red line. The white arrows indicate upper level wind patterns. A fast midlevel jet will race across the Northeast at a very fast clip, around 90-100 mph which is very fast.  At the same time, a low level wind will begin throughout the afternoon further destabilizing the atmosphere indicated by the white arrows over the water. We can call this an ocean front of some sort which will further mix up the atmosphere. The Yellow hatch represents the greatest threat areas I believe the catastrophic severe weather outbreak will most effect. People in these areas should plan themselves accordingly in the event such events do unfold to the intensity I'm predicting.

Possible Radar Image of Superweather event?:

The above is a potential image based on simulation of what the radar could possibly look like for the New England super weather event. The storms would cover 150+ miles stretching from Maine to North Carolina. The most Severe weather will be confined to PA, NY, CT, MA.

Will it really happen? :

In short, it is very likely. The weather patterns over the months have allowed me to create the probabilities below. The weather events in New Orleans, Hurricanes, and severe weather in October in Tennessee are precursors to the event I'm predicting in the Northeast.

At the moment the possibilities of this event unfolding are approximately 47.4948328% as calculated by my risk assessment computer system.  Below I have provided a chart of the probability of the event unfolding, given the following events occur within the given months. If the events do no unfold in this order, you can deduct -5.943% from the 47.4948328% figure with each successive failure. If an event misses, but the next doesn't add 7.5% to the 47.4948328 figure and continue adding 7.5% with each successive weather event. In the event that all dates and weather events do not unfold a 17.78% probability of an outbreak will be given for the months of May - June 2006 for the catastrophic outbreak I predict. 17.78% will be the base percentage. With each passing year this probability will increase by a factor of  2.5593. What this means is that within the next 4 years, the Northeast is nearly 100% due for a spring severe weather outbreak for the record books!.

What will happen?

If you are in the areas I have highlighted in the figure above, I recommend that you read this section carefully. Below is how wind phenomenon is measured. It is called the Fujita scale. To keep it simple I have made this chart with probabilistic frequency of each F-Scale wind speed happening each year across the United States.

The events I'm predicting to unfold are in the category of F3-F5. This is tremendous damage, and I'm almost scared to think of the tragedy that might be inflicted from such devastating tornadoes. F6? Although I can not conceive an F6 Tornado hitting the New England Area, or any area for that matter, I do not rule out the possibility of such an impact somewhere in the United States during the months I have isolated within 4 years.

Why will it be such a catastrophe you ask? Simple, it's the Northeast and people just don't expect a tornado. The fact is this, Tornadoes happen anywhere, anytime, in any number sometimes 2, 3, even 4 tornadoes circulating around each other. Take May 1985. Below I have posted a video of the 1985 Pennsylvania, New York, and Ohio outbreak of more then 300+ tornadoes.

If I were to rate the outbreak of May 1985 to the events I'm predicting (which you can do your own research on), they don't even come close! More then 600+ tornadoes sightings will not be out of the question. Tornadoes only cause damage in small areas, but given the right ingredients the catastrophic event of 2006 may last for a duration of over 8 hours. Many tornadoes touching down causing damage in random places will make it practically impossible to track on radar. 

How Can I prepare?:

So here is what you should do to protect yourself. Make sure you have some canned food, matches, water, and make sure you have access to some significant shelter. Power will be knocked out for days, maybe weeks. Water will be contaminated for months. Transportation will be shut down in many places. Do not try walking into areas with debris as live wires could possibly lie in the ruble.  Keep a look to the sky, and watch the news during these months and listen to the weather stations periodically. Please, I urge that you do not dismiss doing this. If the skies look threatening please don't be scared to take action, or think its just another storm. Better safe then sorry. If you hear Tornado Warning during these months take shelter, its your LIFE!

Conclusion:

You should take my warnings seriously. I have strong reason to believe that the probabilities I have given are extremely accurate and I have taken great care to preserve the authenticity and integrity of them. Lives will be taken, but the quicker you inform people of this site we can prevent  the unnecessary death. Places in the Midwest are prepared for such an event, the Northeast territory is not.