The Official New England Weather Prediction Site

2006-2007 'Trail of Fury' The Events Meteorologists Will Miss

Super Tornado Outbreak / Flooding / Major Winter Storms  / NEW Earthquakes/Volcanos in the Northeast Region\

     Past Accurate Northeast Weather Predictions:

    "I warned the public of devastating events... if the Floods of 2006 wasn't enough what is?"-- 1ST Accurate Prediction FLOODS

    "No one believed me about a Tornado outbreak? Yet July 12 a vicious twister ripped through NY & CT"-- 2ND Accurate Prediction TWISTER

    "...Fear for your life, now I have them saying my own words... 'Life Threatening Heat Situation"-- Third Accurate Prediction MEMORABLE HEAT

        PREDICTIONS ARCHIVES:  Data Archives - Past, historical, and detailed predictions Winter 2005-2006.  

                                                      Data Archives - Past, historical, and detailed predictions 2006 Spring May. 

NEW: Quarterly Outlooks

TROPICAL STORM / HURRICANE FORMATION IMPROBABLE FOR AUGUST 2006

The month of August will be a tricky month. Favorable conditions still exist for severe weather events, including thunderstorms with flooding rains and wind damage profiles. Further analysis of the possibility of a Tornadic outbreak seems to have decreased but if the area were to receive Tornadic activity the expectations are for the middle 2 weeks of August. Some indication is that a tropical storm might form in the Atlantic and at the last moment take a deviation north. However, current patterns would probably suggest cold front passage through the mid-Atlantic and northeast would veer any activity out to sea. Confusion exists in my models but the probability of a tropical storm coming within 100 miles of any point north of North Carolina to Cape Cod is about 34% right now. However, the patterns to start the month if they do continue could increase this likelihood to 45%. Nonetheless I do not predict any significant tropical storms for the month of August.

EARTHQUAKE/VOLCANO?

Earthquake:

Interesting information has come to my attention of the possibility of an earthquake on the magnitude of 3.0 - 4.0 might hit the Northeast sometime between August and November? The flooding rains of the 2006 coupled with the extreme temperatures if persistent  might cause more then just erosion. Flooding rains in New England has loosened many of the rock structures, and with the extreme drying from recent heat could cause slight seismic tremors within the months or month of August through November 2006. The possibility of this happening is about 1.4% but I figured I'd mention it.

Volcano:

Worldwide effects from a unpredicted volcano might occur towards the end of August through next year. I'm still analyzing this.

Significant News:

     August 24, 2006- !!!!SIGNIFICANT NEWS!!!Hurricane for September might come to Fruition for New England:  

1. 
2.  The summer is almost on its way out, but I believe that new data is consistant with active hurricane seasons. The reason no hurricanes have no formed over the Atlantic is simply due to large scale forcing and shear. The Atlantic Basin I expect to become active between the Septebmer 10 - 20th. During this period I expect the potential for a tropical depression to move off the African coast and quickly become a category 3-4 storm. Intensification will deepen depending on shear within the Caribbean. If no shear is present expect our first named Cat-4 or 5 hurricane in the first weeks of September. Old predictions originally lead me to say that any hurricane with trajectory towards New England would quickly be steered out to sea, my uncertainties in early august of stronger then normal cold fronts is decreasing. Less potent fronts and steering upper level winds should yield favorable storm tracks from North Carolina to the tip of Cape Cod through October.
4. August 1, 2006- Significant heat wave hits New England:
5. As was predicted in early Feb. 2006 a massive heat wave is about to rear it self upon the Northeast and megalopolis. Temperatures will hit all time highs across the Northeast marking in some places a 10 year high. 111 deg in Central Park?
6.          

•             UPDATE 4:31 AM: - It has come to my attention that the extreme temperatures might put an extraordinarily high load on the Northeast power grid.
•             So what does this mean? This can potentially mean a very series situation. With the recent problems in Queens NY and Long Island with power
•             outages it will be no surprise if the power grid becomes compromised. With such high temperatures please be advised and act accordingly in the event
•             you are unable to get into an air-conditioned area.

2. July 17 - 24 2006 - Significant heat wave hits New England:
3. This week is going to be a very warm week. In fact, consider it a heat wave with over 7 days over 90 degrees in most areas. 47 states this week will be over 90 degrees, and 12 states over 100! Warm and humid conditions have prompted heat advisories for the area with heat indices of up to 104!
5. Thunderstorms this week remain uncertain. I'm a bit worried about Tuesday July 18 for the potential for some significant thunderstorms. NWS has only issued 5% probabilities which is relatively low, but suggest that the potential exists for severe weather and might need upgrading in next outlooks. 100 degree temperatures coupled with a moderately strong cold front can spell trouble.   
7. No hurricane activity? Will we be hit?:
8. It has come to my attention that I should take a steady hand at assessing an accurate probability and time span for a massive hurricane in the area. I do not want to make any early assumptions, but I'm fairly confident no hurricanes will find there way in our area for 2006!   This prediction is only good for the current season. Next season remains uncertain, and it is far to early to make predictions.       

• VIEWER PLEASE READ: I hope that all who see this site take it seriously. Although the events I describe on this site are accurate predictions, I can not guarantee the events will actually unfold! It is no mystery that the weather in the Northeast is highly uncertain. In fact, the Northeast experiences some of the oddest weather occurrences in the country.  I have been studying New England weather and severe weather events for about 10 years now. It's my hobby, not my profession. All my predictions I try to back with meteorological experts in the field - that is fact, and opinion. However, I must emphasize the potential that 2006 through 2007 might be a very violent time in New England Weather for a wide variety of reasons. Just on empirical observation alone, it's been over 10 years since we have had substantial blizzard, and over 8 years since we have had a widespread thunderstorm/tornado event.  The events that happen in 2006-2007 for New England might only be precursors to more catastrophic weather events in the region.

SEVERE WEATHER 2006 Winter December - February UPDATES:

• Predictions for Winter 2006:
•                  *I expect this winter season to be extremely early - I can not determine snow amounts right now for our region
•                  *No extreme cold spells
•                  *No extreme cold spells
•                  *It could be a very white Christmas for much of New England or very warm

PRELIMINARY 2007 Weather UPDATES:

• Predictions for Remaining July - September 2006:
•                  *Massive weather year
•                  *Uncertainties remain, but Hurricane potential extreme great
•                  *If extreme snow fall in months of January - February - could be minor flooding in New England
•                  *The possibility for a MASSIVE TORNADO OUTBREAK rivaling 1972 March - April  (Wont Effect New England)

SEVERE WEATHER 2006 Summer July - September 15, 2006:

1. I have posted all relevant information in the data/predictions archive for Spring May 2006. The weather evens on July 12, 2006 have prompted me to reinstate a new archived session for the remaining months of July and August for Summer 06 Severe Weather.

• Predictions for Remaining July - September 2006:
•                  *I expect at least 2 additional Tornado Threats
•                  *I possibly see a Hurricane threat September, or late August
•                  *I see some indication that a large outbreak is still possible for 2006. 
•                  *Massive hurricane may hit Florida in August. Some of this storm might find its way North.

July 13, 2006 - F2 Tornado Confirmed in NY  & CT

It is confirmed by the NWS that a F2 Tornado hit NY into CT. This is a rare event. The last time a F2 tornado hit the area was in 1960.  See July 12 for video archive where meteorologists say this is a quote "... extremely rare event".

• Police car lifted in air and tossed 20 feet
• The destructive tornado in NY picked up a a cop car and tossed it 20 feet. For the video go to July 12th below under video archive.

July 12, 2006 - Possible F2 Tornado Hits Hudson Valley & CT (Fairfield County)

Hello all. Today has been a very exciting day for me and many weather watchers. My predictions for a very large tornado outbreak did not come to fruition today, but I'm very glad to hear today that the event did not unfold into something bigger. Much damage has been reported, with a potentially F2 tornado with winds over 110 mph reported. I wanted to tell you that conditions have been excellent many times this year for potential outbreaks, but today really came to life.

Possible Continued Unsettle Weather/Tornado Safety: If you have stuck with my predictions I said there would be a heat wave this summer, and I believe we might be seeing our first heat wave coming Friday into Tuesday. Tentatively, I'm going to hold back but since July is the most active month for tornadoes in our area I want to really emphasize that you understand what to do in the event a tornado warning is issued in your area in the following weeks.

Last Update 9:54 PM July 12, 2006 Regarding July 12, 2006 Storm - Additional Information Coming In

4:16pm EST - Radar Image of Storm Photos: Photo taken of storm from CT Projectile flies through window (Unknown) Storm Documentation Video: Brad Field TV1 NBC30 Video (Coming Soon) Brad Field TV2 NBC30 Video (Coming Soon) Storm Damage Video (Coming Soon) Timeline of Tornado (Coming Soon) Full Story - NBC NY July 13 (Coming Soon) Police cruiser rides Twister (Coming Soon) Note: 5:10 pm coast guard reported a tornado in Long Island Sound. Although I can not confirm this, I was approximately 36 miles from this area and can confirm odd roaring sounds emanating from the cell from a beach which lasted from 5:30 - 6:10 pm NBC30's Brad Field confirms that the storm indeed spawned a water spout 10 miles south of Stratford which would of meant I was approximately 10 miles from it given I was right at beachfront location in Stratford.  Technical Outlooks: (Coming Soon)   Today's wicked weather comes as no surprise. At 3:50 pm I spotted a hook echo approaching into the Hudson Valley area. At 1:33 pm the National Weather Service issued a discussion regarding the potential for an existing Tornado watch which paralleled Connecticut but did not include it. Why the NWS did not issue a a Tornado Watch is beyond me, and is another issue entirely. I'm very upset with the predictions of the NWS. They had time to prompt a statement of discussion about extending the watch in the first photo below. The second photo was the discussion which would of extended the watch into Connecticut but was cancelled only 1 hour before the devastating tornado hit.                             Five past four a Tornado Warning is issued for the area with strong rotation over southwestern Connecticut. I immediately phoned a friend to gather storm damage, and the possibility of capturing the eminent tornado. However, at 4:30 pm the NWS had expired the Tornado warning. Which leads me to the next issue, was a tornado still on the ground even after 4:30? Yes, I was approximately 36 miles from the storm and could hear roaring sounds from within the clouds and at some point it's confirmed I was actually 10 miles from the final touchdown of the Tornado which was 10 miles south of Stratford CT in Long Island Sound. In fact, although I did not snap a picture, I had seen the funnel ascended from the water around 5:45.                    Visible satellite at 2:00 pm confirms the possibility of some partial clearing and continued destabilization of the atmosphere. Rich dew points none the less were sufficient to create enough instability along with shear and low level jet.