NFL Playoffs Second Round
Topic: NFL
Ravens over Colts
One of the more agonizing decisions I’ve ever had to make. At the start of the playoffs, I picked the Ravens to win this game and was feeling totally confident with that pick. After watching the Indianapolis Colts defense win the game last week against KC, (That’s right, you read that correctly. I didn’t type defense by mistake. I’m surprised my computer hasn’t picked it up as a grammatical error) I became extremely tempted, as a Colts fan, to believe the Colts could beat the Ravens. If they could stop LJ then stopping Jamal Lewis should be a walk in the park. And you can’t think that Peyton Manning will throw a complete stinker against the Ravens’ defense, he’s already got his annual three interception playoff game out of the way. He always has found a way to score some (not alot, but some) points on the Ravens D.
Why am I picking the Ravens? Once I got over the initial giddiness that comes with a playoff win by your team, and looked at things objectively, some other things stood out.
1) The offense that the Colts baffled last week was lead by Trent Green. A Trent Green who has never gotten into a rhythm following his early concussion. This week? Steve McNair, a guy with a pretty decent postseason resume. (One yard short of a Super Bowl title? no?) He’s not the same as he once was, but he’s a hell of alot better than Trent Green at making decisions and leading a football team.

Note: Is Trent Green’s hair REALLY gray or does it just reflect light very well??? This is something I must know.

2) The Colts defense is built on speed, which matched up well against an aged KC O-Line. The Ravens’ line is younger and very good in pass protection, allowing the second fewest sacks in the league. This is a problem because if Steve McNair is given time to throw, he’ll be able to pick apart the Colts weak secondary, especially if Bob Sanders is brought up for support in stopping the run.

3) I can’t get over the fact that I’ve seen this before.

In the 2005 playoffs, the Colts thrashed the Denver Broncos in the Wild-Card round, 49-24. Lots of positives, lots of optimism, the Colts looked very good. They followed that up with a 20-3 defeat in a snowstorm at Foxborough.

In the 2004 playoffs, the Colts killed the Broncos in the opening round, 41-10. In the divisional round they went into Arrowhead and outscored the Chiefs 38-31. They went into the AFC Championship game having punted just once during the playoffs. The emergence of Reggie Wayne as an effective No. 2 receiver had the Colts’ offense looking absolutely unstoppable. They lost an ugly game in Foxborough that year as well, 24-14.

In fact, if you go all the way back to the 1999-2000 season, (The Colts first playoff with Manning at the helm) the Colts are 4-0 against AFC West opponents in the playoffs and 0-6 against everyone else. Has there ever been a simpler formula for predicting a team’s playoff fortunes? How come this isn’t mentioned before every Colts playoff game?


Saints over Eagles
Have you read Gene Wojciechowski’s recent piece with Deuce McAllister on the devastation of Hurricane Katrina? No one has a greater home advantage than these New Orleans Saints and even if they had toilet paper for a defense (they’re not much better) I couldn’t even imagine picking against them at home in the playoffs. End of story.
Intangibles aside, with Lito Sheppard out of the lineup and the Eagles defense very leniant against the run, the Saints are going to put up some serious points on Saturday evening. The kind of point totals that Jeff Garcia can’t produce.

Seahawks over Bears
The Seahawks got lucky against the Cowboys. They escaped. I’m still waiting for their offense to wake up and show me the talent that made them NFC Champs last year. Matt Hasselbeck has been average and Shaun Alexander has never really got going. But since the loss of Tommie Harris, the Bears defense has not been a difference-maker, they’ve almost been a hinderence to the their success. They may be one of the worst top-seeds I’ve ever seen. An average defense and a streaky offense on a bad streak leads me to pick the Seahawks.

Patriots over Chargers
I hate Tom Brady. I’ve never expressed this in a column before, but I absolutely cannot stand the man. Cannot stand the way the Patriots offense operates in general. They seem impossible to stop. Their 8-yard passes to the sidelines are one of the most infuriating plays in sports. Every time you think you’ve got them on a 3rd and 6 or something like that they pull out one of the goddamned fairy-assed plays, get the first down, causing every opposing fan to scream in frustration. EVERY FREAKING TIME. Over the years, I’ve developed a complex for dealing with this stress, as I’m sure many other Colts/AFC East fans have. Just expect it. They’re gonna do it. Just give off a little laugh when it happens. Say something like “God, that was a cheap play you little bastard, God you’re good Tom” and move on to the next cycle. There, rant over. I’m sure this will be elaborated upon in a future column, just had to get a little bit of it our here and now.

The Jets kept it close throughout a good part of last Sunday’s game, but it was pretty clear throughout that the Pats were in control. Seeing him get a rhythm going with Jabar Gaffney last week should have been a frightening sight for Chargers waiting at home.

On the offensive side of the ball, Tom Brady’s quick release and ability to read coverage should negate the Chargers’ tremendous pash-rush team of Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips.

On the defensive, Bill Belichick is the last coach you would want a quarterback facing in his first playoff game. Philip Rivers will face one of the most confounding defenses in the NFL. The availability of Rodney Harrison for this game is huge. He’s one of the leaders of their defense and a very disruptive force in the passing game.

The San Diego Chargers are a good team. But I just can’t see Tom Brady losing to a rookie quarterback and a chronic-playoff-choker coach. The only team that has bested Tom Brady in the playoffs was the Denver Broncos who possessed an experienced (albeit inconsistent) quarterback in Jake the Snake and a legendary coach in Mike Shanahan. I don’t see it happening again to Rivers and Schotts.

First Round: 4-0


You can contact Trevor Courtis at trevorcourtis@emailplus.org

NFL Playoff Power Poll

12. New York Giants
Gutsy win last week in an exciting game against the Redskins. Tiki did everything he had to do to keep his career alive for another week. Washington was pretty successful against their defense, however, and the Eagles possess a better offense than the ‘Skins. No doubt the sportscasters will mention how every single play affect’s Tom Coughlin’s job throughout this weekend’s game.

11. New York Jets
I just can’t bring myself to take the Jets seriously. I remember watching the midseason game they played against the Jags, where they got killed 41-0. Those were the Jets everyone thought they were going to see throughout the season. They looked positively awful. However, two weeks ago they played impressively against a good, but retooling, Miami Dolphins team. They had the assistance of a cushy schedule, but they won their most important game of the year against New England, a real impressive win.
In almost any other year, Eric Mangini would be the Coach of the Year. He has managed ten wins with a quarterback who has a cheap cap gun for an arm and a RB-by-committee approach.
To win in the playoffs, their defense will have to continue to be stifling and Chad Pennington will have to avoid mistakes and hope one of their backs get hot, which is not out of the realm of possibility.

10. Kansas City Chiefs
As a die-hard Colts fan, this is the single worst team that could have grabbed the final wild-card spot. This is a rematch of a wild-card game that was a track meet a couple years ago. I think there was a total of one punt between the two teams. Peyton Manning ended up winning the shootout over Trent Green and the Priest. Things have changed tremendously since then, however. All of it good for the Chiefs. Their offense is much more gritty, Larry Johnson is an absolute horse. Their defense has made steps under Herm Edwards as well. They should provide a great challenge for the reeling Colts. However, against the top AFC teams and their vaunted defenses, the Chiefs may struggle.

9. Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks are the single most dangerous team in the NFC. Personnel-wise, a whole lot hasn’t changed from their Super Bowl participant team last year, other than the loss of Steve Hutchinson. Their play during their three game losing streak to end the season was perplexing. The had finally got all their money players back on offense and were expected to finally play up to the high expectations following their successful 2005 campaign. But they just didn’t look like the same Seahawks team. Shaun Alexander is not the same. Perhaps it’s the loss of Hutchinson, perhaps it’s the lingering effects from his early-season injury, but he’s the key to the Seahawks success. If he and Hasselbeck find their timing, the Seahawks could do some serious damage in the NFC. If not, they will likely exit with a whimper.

8. Indianapolis Colts
*shakes head*
These Colts…
Oh boy these Colts… One of the most frustrating seasons I’ve ever been a part of. They have flashed signs of hope throughout the season, but enter the playoffs with a tremendous and seemingly unfixable weakness. Their 9-0 start was marked by mostly close wins, a contrast to the old Colts way of winning games. They were at their best in wins against the Patriots and Bengals. They outplayed and outcoached both teams in those games. But with the ups, there has been TREMENDOUS downs. They lost to every team in their division. Their loss to the Jaguars was one of the worst games I’ve seen played by a defense. There was maybe two first tackles made all game. It exposed to everyone the Achilles heel of the Colts. And it was made worse by the Houston game. Ron Dayne (think Jerome Bettis without a cool nickname or adequate speed) set a career high for rushing and the Colts lost to the team that had always played like they were the Colts’ warmup squad.
They drew one of the worst first-round matchups possible. Unless their run defense improves a million times over by the weekend, they’re going to get run over by LJ and the Chiefs. With the Chiefs’ improved defense and their lack of a third receiver, it’s going to be much harder for Peyton Manning to win a shootout.

7. Dallas Cowboys
A very up-and-down season from the Cowboys. They looked ready for dead after their loss to the Giants. A switch at quarterback and five weeks later they were the favourite alternative to the Bears in the NFC. They stumbled down the stretch, getting blown out by the Saints, looking lethargic against the Eagles and losing the big-play battle against the Lions. Their defense hasn’t looked the same since they lost the pass rushing presence of Greg Ellis. He and DeMarcus Ware made a scary tandem coming off the edges. Good passing teams can carve up the Cowboys defense (Exhibit A: v.s. New Orleans Saints) and I don’t think Dallas’ offense is good enough to keep up.

6. New Orleans Saints
On offense, they are as explosive as any team in the game. Drew Brees can pick apart poor pass defenses. Their backs are solid and explosive. The Saints should be able to move the chains against every team in the NFC. Their defense has been better than advertised. They have been solid, but when you look at their depth chart, it’s hard to believe that coaches won’t find a way to finally exploit the holes that should be there. They hold the greatest positive intangible of any of the playoff teams. The SuperDome should be absolutely deafening and it’s hard to see a team coming into there and beating the Saints, with all the motivation they’ll have behind them to win one for the embattled city.

5. Philadelphia Eagles
They seem like the most likely candidate to replicate the Steelers run of last year. They enter the post-season on a tremendous hot streak. They have rallied around Jeff Garcia and have started to run the ball effectively. They an imperfect team though. The Colts are the only reason why they are not the league’s poorest team against the run and their receivers continue to be unspectacular. But this team has got a lot of momentum and excitement. Their quarterbacks run down the field after a big play, their defense gets pumped after big plays, this team could go all the way.
4. Chicago Bears
The biggest question mark of these playoffs resides in the Windy City. Which Rex Grossman will show up for the playoffs? Will it be the Rex Grossman of the first six weeks of the season? Or the Grossman who barely avoided a QB Rating of zero? The Bears would accept something in the middle. Their defense is very good, and can win games if their offense plays adequately. If Grossman commits too many turnovers, it will be hard for the defense to keep an offense at bay with consistently great field position. They should win the NFC.

3. New England Patriots
You can never count them out. Their lack of receivers has hurt the passing game, but the running game is better than it has been in past years with the addition of Laurence Maroney, a more speedy option to clock-killin’ Corey Dillon. Their defense is still excellent if Rodney Harrison is 100%. The general consensus is that to beat the Patriots, you have to load the box and force Tom Brady and his ragtag group of receivers to beat you. Given Brady’s playoff success, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Patriots beat one of the Big Two in the AFC.

2. San Diego Chargers
Marty Schottenheimer hasn’t fared well in the playoffs. That’s a bit of an understatement. His super-conservative style has cost his teams in the past. After a magnificent start to the season, Philip Rivers finished a little shaky. Couple that fact with his inexperience and Charger fans have reason to be worried. That being said, however, they possess an excellent defense led by the seemingly superhuman Shawne Merriman. They also have this guy called LaDainian Tomlinson and he’s not a bad player. If Philip Rivers can play well, the Chargers are in a class of their own.

1. Baltimore Ravens
Why are the Ravens ranked ahead of the Chargers?
Steve McNair.
He’s not the Steve McNair he once was, but as a game manager, he’s much more trustworthy than Philip Rivers. Chargers v.s. Ravens would be a fantastic football game. The type of game that would come down to a couple big plays and who wins the turnover battle. The Ravens defense is as good as their 2000 edition, if they can shut LaDainian Tomlinson down and force Philip Rivers to beat them through the air, they should beat the Chargers.

Jan 1st, 2007

Playoff Picks
AFC
Wild Card
Colts over Chiefs
Pats over Jets
Divisional
Ravens over Colts
Patriots over Chargers
Conference
Ravens over Patriots

NFC
Wild Card
Eagles over Giants
Seahawks over Cowboys
Divisional
Seahawks over Bears
Saints over Eagles
Conference
Saints over Seahawks

Super Bowl
Ravens over Saints