Topic: NFL
Ravens over Colts
One of the more agonizing decisions I’ve ever had to make. At the start of the playoffs, I picked the Ravens to win this game and was feeling totally confident with that pick. After watching the Indianapolis Colts defense win the game last week against KC, (That’s right, you read that correctly. I didn’t type defense by mistake. I’m surprised my computer hasn’t picked it up as a grammatical error) I became extremely tempted, as a Colts fan, to believe the Colts could beat the Ravens. If they could stop LJ then stopping Jamal Lewis should be a walk in the park. And you can’t think that Peyton Manning will throw a complete stinker against the Ravens’ defense, he’s already got his annual three interception playoff game out of the way. He always has found a way to score some (not alot, but some) points on the Ravens D.
Why am I picking the Ravens? Once I got over the initial giddiness that comes with a playoff win by your team, and looked at things objectively, some other things stood out.
1) The offense that the Colts baffled last week was lead by Trent Green. A Trent Green who has never gotten into a rhythm following his early concussion. This week? Steve McNair, a guy with a pretty decent postseason resume. (One yard short of a Super Bowl title? no?) He’s not the same as he once was, but he’s a hell of alot better than Trent Green at making decisions and leading a football team.
Note: Is Trent Green’s hair REALLY gray or does it just reflect light very well??? This is something I must know.
2) The Colts defense is built on speed, which matched up well against an aged KC O-Line. The Ravens’ line is younger and very good in pass protection, allowing the second fewest sacks in the league. This is a problem because if Steve McNair is given time to throw, he’ll be able to pick apart the Colts weak secondary, especially if Bob Sanders is brought up for support in stopping the run.
3) I can’t get over the fact that I’ve seen this before.
In the 2005 playoffs, the Colts thrashed the Denver Broncos in the Wild-Card round, 49-24. Lots of positives, lots of optimism, the Colts looked very good. They followed that up with a 20-3 defeat in a snowstorm at Foxborough.
In the 2004 playoffs, the Colts killed the Broncos in the opening round, 41-10. In the divisional round they went into Arrowhead and outscored the Chiefs 38-31. They went into the AFC Championship game having punted just once during the playoffs. The emergence of Reggie Wayne as an effective No. 2 receiver had the Colts’ offense looking absolutely unstoppable. They lost an ugly game in Foxborough that year as well, 24-14.
In fact, if you go all the way back to the 1999-2000 season, (The Colts first playoff with Manning at the helm) the Colts are 4-0 against AFC West opponents in the playoffs and 0-6 against everyone else. Has there ever been a simpler formula for predicting a team’s playoff fortunes? How come this isn’t mentioned before every Colts playoff game?
Saints over Eagles
Have you read Gene Wojciechowski’s recent piece with Deuce McAllister on the devastation of Hurricane Katrina? No one has a greater home advantage than these New Orleans Saints and even if they had toilet paper for a defense (they’re not much better) I couldn’t even imagine picking against them at home in the playoffs. End of story.
Intangibles aside, with Lito Sheppard out of the lineup and the Eagles defense very leniant against the run, the Saints are going to put up some serious points on Saturday evening. The kind of point totals that Jeff Garcia can’t produce.
Seahawks over Bears
The Seahawks got lucky against the Cowboys. They escaped. I’m still waiting for their offense to wake up and show me the talent that made them NFC Champs last year. Matt Hasselbeck has been average and Shaun Alexander has never really got going. But since the loss of Tommie Harris, the Bears defense has not been a difference-maker, they’ve almost been a hinderence to the their success. They may be one of the worst top-seeds I’ve ever seen. An average defense and a streaky offense on a bad streak leads me to pick the Seahawks.
Patriots over Chargers
I hate Tom Brady. I’ve never expressed this in a column before, but I absolutely cannot stand the man. Cannot stand the way the Patriots offense operates in general. They seem impossible to stop. Their 8-yard passes to the sidelines are one of the most infuriating plays in sports. Every time you think you’ve got them on a 3rd and 6 or something like that they pull out one of the goddamned fairy-assed plays, get the first down, causing every opposing fan to scream in frustration. EVERY FREAKING TIME. Over the years, I’ve developed a complex for dealing with this stress, as I’m sure many other Colts/AFC East fans have. Just expect it. They’re gonna do it. Just give off a little laugh when it happens. Say something like “God, that was a cheap play you little bastard, God you’re good Tom” and move on to the next cycle. There, rant over. I’m sure this will be elaborated upon in a future column, just had to get a little bit of it our here and now.
The Jets kept it close throughout a good part of last Sunday’s game, but it was pretty clear throughout that the Pats were in control. Seeing him get a rhythm going with Jabar Gaffney last week should have been a frightening sight for Chargers waiting at home.
On the offensive side of the ball, Tom Brady’s quick release and ability to read coverage should negate the Chargers’ tremendous pash-rush team of Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips.
On the defensive, Bill Belichick is the last coach you would want a quarterback facing in his first playoff game. Philip Rivers will face one of the most confounding defenses in the NFL. The availability of Rodney Harrison for this game is huge. He’s one of the leaders of their defense and a very disruptive force in the passing game.
The San Diego Chargers are a good team. But I just can’t see Tom Brady losing to a rookie quarterback and a chronic-playoff-choker coach. The only team that has bested Tom Brady in the playoffs was the Denver Broncos who possessed an experienced (albeit inconsistent) quarterback in Jake the Snake and a legendary coach in Mike Shanahan. I don’t see it happening again to Rivers and Schotts.
First Round: 4-0
You can contact Trevor Courtis at trevorcourtis@emailplus.org