Holding onto a Shaky Coalition

FOCUS ARCHIVE:

America and its Allies are busy building a grand coalition of countries from all over the world ....will it stand the test of time?

U.S President George Bush made it clear from day one that its going to be a long campaign against terror. In that he forced the rest of the world into taking America's side in its war by stating, "You are either with us or with the terrorists". This statement was enough to win support of almost every nation on the planet..

Pakistan like many other muslim countries denounced the attacks and pledged to assist the U.S in its war by accepting initial demands of logistic and intelligence support. PAF Base Samungli [Quetta] and Pasni Int'l Airport are currently on U.S disposal and are being used for 'logistic' purposes. But with increasing demostrations in the streets and internal pressure and perhaps disputes within the army high command, will Pakistan keep its pledge for long? President Musharraf faces the toughest battle of his career now; one of national pride against int'l pressure; losing it threatens isolation and perhaps more sanctions or a military action even. While chances of Internal Instability are minute, there still exists this possibility which might favour overthrowing Musharraf with civil unrest and possible military coup againt him. Pervez Musharraf is thus fighting the battle of his life!

Will the coalition hold?
With 3rd night of strikes on Afghanistan underway, the Pakistan government is already shaking with domestic pressure. Violent protests in cities of Quetta, Peshawar, Karachi and even Islamabad show increasing tension among the population about ongoing strikes which are signs of concern for the coalition members. Only time will tell wether this shaky coalition holds or not, but there are more than 60% chances of its dismembering in near future.

Which countries makeup the coalition at present?
NATO countries along with Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Russia, Japan and Australia. Other countries have pledged verbal support to Allies.

Which countries threaten the coalition?
Pakistan tops this list. Political unrest here could force government to withdraw its support of strikes against Afghanistan, which would be a serious blow to Allied Coalition resulting total turnover of events. Considerable risks ensue.
Uzbekistan & Tajikistan only reluctantly allowed use of their bases. Although they support the Northern Alliance fearing rise of Islamic fundamentalists in the region, internal instability and Russia are 2 antagonists the Allies face in staying here too long. Moderate risks ensue.
Saudi Arabia refused to allow Allies to use its soil to launch attacks against Afghanistan however it gave verbal support to strikes against terrorist Osama-bin-Laden which means a lot for the coalition. Islamist factions condemn attacks and might force government to do so more openly in time. Minute risks ensue.
Indonesia & Malaysia are moderate islamic societies however attacks on Afghanistan sparked widespread demostrations in Jakarta and overall condemnation from public. Verbal support on government levels exists for the time being which could vanish soon if domestic pressure increases. Moderate risks ensue.
Russia remains a key regional power with influence in central asia and experiance in fighting in Afghanistan. It however has reservations on allowing U.S forces to be stationed in Central Asia, a move that could lead to souring of relationships between Allies and Russia. Minute risks ensue.
Japan is giving all out support including military backup but has reservations about humanitarian conditions prevailing in Afghanistan which could lead to more verbal condemnation in future if the predicted humanitarian catastrophe does occur. Minute risks ensue.

What chances of Success are there for the Allies to capture of possibly kill Osama?
In figures, it'd be something like 10-20%. Thus it is highly unlikely that binLaden be apprehended or killed even since the notorious terrain of Afghanistan is possibly the best hiding place he could find. 'If hes safe anywhere on this planet, its in Afghanistan', commented one analyst.

What is the U.S heading for? Victory or a shameful Failure?
Victory is highly unlikely, not impossible though, so is a shameful failure to this campaign. If U.S makes the right choices and manages to keep the coalition going strong, its target can be achieved within a few months time. If however the U.S prolongs this conflict well into the next year, the coaliton might break up on the way and perhaps leaving U.S fighting alone in Afghanistan ending up like Vietnam War, a shameful failure.

Afghanistan is a country where generations grew up fighting and it is renowned for its guerilla warfare. Even if U.S invades Afghanistan, it can never keep hold of the country and ultimately the warring afghans would force the U.S out leaving more of a mess than a resolving conflict.

Final Verdict
All we can do is hope that coming days would be better for the millions of Afghans living across the border and here in Pakistan as well and that this conflict could be over as soon as possible and more time could be spent this time around to fix this unresolved problem that has plagued this region for decades like a malignant tumor which is now showing its signs in the rest of the world too.

Filed on October 8th 2001.