1. An Enormous amount of time and resources would be needed to develop the technologies for at least mid-scale intersteller travel.
2. People are required to operate, improve upon, and develop technology.
3. Without continuous development and adaptation, a system's likely-hood of continued survival deminishes.
Conclusion: Statistically, the most likely extra-terrestrial civilization to visit Earth would:
Statistically speaking, the anthropomorphic shape is probably not that rare. Sure, there are sometimes many ways of accomplishing something biologically. However, the precurser features of an organism have a direct path of development. This tends to eliminate alternate possibilities. Additionally, it has been found that any differences between organisms tends to be enviromentally and efficiency based. The case for a high frequency of analogous structures (different features, but with the same function) seems to be diminishing. It's rare and probably statistically less likely, even on intersteller scales. Those who have thought otherwise tend to eventually find they weren't looking hard enough for the advantage of that particular feature difference.