The Cyclone season - the most severe weather conditions fall between January and March.
Dec. 17, 1999 — Cyclone Ilse hit the northwest coast of Australia on Friday, just two days after the powerful Category 5 Cyclone John had raged over the region. Ilse was downgraded to a Category 1 storm by midday and was located about 165 miles east-northeast of Port Hedland. The cyclone made landfall on the northwest coast near Sandfire Roadhouse on Eighty Mile Beach. A cyclone warning remained in effect for the coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Pardoo. Ilse was packing winds of up to 56 mph, but was predicted to weaken later in the day as it moved inland.
Dec. 16, 1999 — After lashing Australia's northwest coast on Tuesday, Cyclone John had dissipated by Thursday as it moved inland over the desert terrain.
Meanwhile, meteorologists warned that cyclone Ilsa was intensifying in the Timor Sea and could make landfall on the Pilbara coast over the weekend, following closely in John's path.
Wednesday, December 15, 1999 - PERTH, Australia -- Cyclone John, the most powerful storm ever recorded in Australia, battered the country's northwest coast today, uprooting trees and tearing roofs off homes. Damage was limited and no injuries were immediately reported because the cyclone, with sustained winds of up to 130 mph, came ashore in the sparsely populated Pilbara region.
Forecasters warned that cyclone Ilsa is gathering strength in the Timor Sea and could cross the Pilbara coast as early as Thursday.
Dec. 14, 1999 — Residents on the northwest coast of Australia braced for the arrival of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone John, which is predicted to make landfall late Wednesday local time.
On Tuesday afternoon, John was located 161 miles north-northwest of Port Hedland and was moving south-southwesterly at seven mph.
Operations at offshore oil fields near the storm's path have been suspended.
A tropical cyclone warning is in effect for coastal areas between Wallal and Onslow, inland to Pannawonica. A cyclone watch extends southwest to Exmouth and inland to Newman, Tom Price and Paraburdoo.
As of 1:00 p.m. Tuesday AWST, John continued to intensify. Winds are predicted to increase and become extremely destructive with wind gusts of up to 165 mph near the cyclone's center.
Residents in coastal towns are warned of the potential for very dangerous storm-surge tides as the cyclone makes landfall. Tides may rise up to 23 feet above normal, with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.
Meanwhile, to the west, Tropical Cyclone Ilsa continued to move in a southeasterly direction near Christmas Island and is predicted to intensify further on Tuesday. The storm is not posing an immediate threat to any land areas.
December 1, 1999 - The nation's top weather officials warn that tropical storm regions seem to be heading into an era of more and bigger storms. Tropical weather seem to operate in cycles of 20-30 years and the nation currently is just a few years into a more active storm period.
MIAMI - On November 30., the long, nerve-racking, quirk-filled hurricane season of 1999 finally drew to a close.
That would be not a minute too soon for many Miamians living in this prime hurricane zone, whose nerves fray as the season progresses. But it may be that the worst is yet to come. William Gray, one of the most prominent American hurricane forecasters, announced last week that a new era of intense hurricane activity is about to unfold. Likely to be hit more than ever, he said, will be the Caribbean islands, the East Coast of the United States and the Florida Peninsula. The last intense era of hurricane activity ended in the 1960s, Mr. Gray said, when Florida and the East Coast were not nearly so extensively developed. During the relatively quiet period that stretched from 1970 to 1994, more people were lured to the shoreline, and many more homes and businesses in prime waterfront locations are in jeopardy today. ''If this new period of increased landfalling storms is now with us, it could pose serious threats to safety and to property for the country,'' Mr. Gray said. The reasons for the renewed activity involve several ''climate signals'' that have been reliable indicators in the past, he said, including above-average sea temperatures in the North Atlantic and above-average rainfall in Africa. For the past two busy seasons, the presence of La Niña, the mass of cold water in the eastern equatorial Pacific, has managed to keep at bay the wind shear that helps to weaken strong hurricanes.
Mr. Gray predicted this year that there would be 14 named storms in 1999, nine of them hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes would be intense, he predicted. The final count: 12 named storms, with eight of them qualifying as hurricanes. Five of those hurricanes were major. Mr. Gray's predictions for 2000 will be released next year. By Sue Anne Pressley Washington Post Service
November 29, 1999 - " The 1999 Atlantic hurricane season that ends tomorrow generated an unprecedented spate of powerful storms and brought killer floods to the United States, but fell far short of last year's deadly toll.
The six-month season saw five Category 4 hurricanes - Bret, Cindy, Floyd, Gert, and Lenny - for the first time on record. Category 4 storms are the second-most-powerful type, with winds of 131 to 155 miles per hour, capable of leveling mobile homes and badly damaging houses.
In all, 12 tropical storms formed and eight became hurricanes. Tropical storms form and receive names when winds reach 39 miles per hour. They become hurricanes when winds reach 74 miles per hour.
''It's definitely an above-normal season. All five of the major hurricanes reached Category 4 status,'' said Brian Jarvinen, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. ''We've never had five of them be Category 4. That in itself was a record.''
But while Hurricane Floyd claimed about 70 lives in the United States and the Bahamas, the 1999 season did not match the crushing toll of 1998, when Hurricane Georges killed 500 in a Caribbean rampage and Mitch took as many as 11,000 lives in Central America.
Forecasters and emergency managers have warned for years that hurricanes pose a catastrophic threat to overbuilt coastal areas. But the 1999 season sounded alarm bells for inland residents who can fall victim to a hurricane's torrential rains.
Floyd's floods killed about 50 people in North Carolina, putting houses and barns under water up to their eaves and forcing people and animals onto roofs and into trees and attics. In South Florida, Hurricane Irene dumped up to 18 inches of rain, and six people were killed, five from stepping into puddles electrified by downed wires.
''The big lesson and the thing that's going to be discussed is the inland flooding with both Floyd and Irene. We've learned that tropical storms and hurricanes can cause major inland flooding with loss of life,'' Jarvinen said.
The Caribbean, bashed by Dennis, Floyd, Irene, and Jose, received a late-season surprise when Lenny formed this month south of Jamaica. Instead of taking a normal path to Central America, it headed east, pummeling the Virgin Islands and St. Martin.
''Lenny is unprecedented,'' Jarvinen said. ''We hadn't seen a storm that moved initially in a southeast direction and then an east-northeast direction. It was just incredible.''
The busy season - the average Atlantic season brings 9.3 named storms, 5.8 hurricanes of which 2.2 are intense - was simply a continuation of a period of hurricane activity begun five years ago, forecasters said."
Hurricane season is said to run from June 1 through Nov. 30 in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. But history shows that some tropical cyclones have ignored the calendar. Weather records show that in 1908, a tropical storm formed in the western Atlantic on March 6 and became a hurricane before dissipating March 9. There also have been tropical storms and hurricanes in May.
On the late end, a number of tropical cyclones have formed in December. And it seems the 1954 hurricane season just didn't know when to quit. The last hurricane of that season reached tropical-storm strength Dec. 30, and on Dec. 31 became a hurricane that carried over into 1955, dissipating Jan. 5.
March 1999 -
PROBABILITIES PREDICTED FOR HURRICANES TO HIT THE COASTLINE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN:
Colorado State hurricane forecaster William Gray and his team are standing by earlier predictions of an active hurricane season similar to last year's, with 14 tropical storms, nine hurricanes and four intense hurricanes expected in 1999. For the first time, Gray and his associates have issued probability predictions of hurricanes occurring in the vicinity or making landfall in the Caribbean Basin-Bahamas or on the east coast of Mexico. "We expect this year to be an active season, comparable to the ones in 1996 and 1998, but less busy than the extreme season of 1995," Gray said. The team believes there is a 50 to 75 percent higher probability that a storm will come ashore in the Caribbean or along Mexico's east coast this year compared with the average per-year probability for the past century.
Meanwhile, there is an approximately 72 percent chance that one or more major hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson 3-5) will strike the U.S. coastline between Brownsville, Texas, and the Canadian border, or 44 percent above the 100-year average. Landfall probabilities for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, are about 54 percent for one or more major hurricanes, or 74 percent above the 100-year average, and about 40 percent for one or more major hurricanes making landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle west to Brownsville (33 percent above the long-term average.)
Predictions made in December 1998 have remained the same for the April 7 and current updates, the first time since 1992 that numbers have not changed based on new data. "The climate signals we saw in December and early April remain the same, indicating that we're likely to see activity quite a bit above the average season," Gray said. "We don't see anything in the new information we have through the month of May that would cause us to alter our forecast." In fact, Gray said, two climate signals have strengthened his belief that this will be an active season.
"The Atlantic Ocean looks slightly more conducive to hurricane formation as sea surface temperatures have risen and, we believe, will continue to rise," he said.
In addition, "the West Coast from southern Canada to Baja California has unusually cold sea surface temperatures. During similar episodes we've had very active hurricane seasons," Gray said.
The phenomenon is not necessarily related to La Niña, an upwelling of cold water limited to the equatorial Pacific. However, La Niña also contributes to Atlantic Basin hurricane formation and is expected to remain cool through the entire June 1-Nov. 30 hurricane season.
Other factors promoting hurricane formation are westerly stratospheric winds, called the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, that exist high in the atmosphere over the earth's equatorial regions and reverse themselves about every two years. When these stratospheric winds blow from the west, as they are doing in 1999, an enhancing effect on hurricane activity, especially major hurricanes, occurs. In addition, a ridge of barometric high pressure called the Azores High is measuring below average. The Azores High has an enhancing influence on hurricane activity, as does below-average Caribbean Basin sea-level pressure for August and September 1999.
The forecast, now in its 16th year, is prepared by Gray and co-authors Chris Landsea, Paul Mielke, Kenneth Berry and other project colleagues. Gray believes that signals from the Atlantic, coupled with recent strong hurricane activity, indicate a new era of storm formation. Increasing North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and salinity suggest that changes observed since 1995 mean the continuance of a strong Atlantic Ocean conveyor belt circulation, bringing with it the chance for more intense hurricanes along the Atlantic coast and in the Caribbean. This enhanced period could continue for two or more decades, Gray believes.
While the Atlantic conveyor belt affects the Eastern Seaboard, this year could see more activity at low latitudes from easterly waves progressing out of Africa. "That could mean more low-latitude storms (from the equator to about 25 degrees north) this year and storms with long tracks, which tend to become more intense ones," Gray said. "They can affect the Caribbean, but as they move west they tend to curve to the north and could affect the Gulf Coast. "With this cold water along the Pacific, historically we tend to have lots of landfalling storms along the entire coast."
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The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season had more than 80 storm days -- days when a tropical storm or hurricane was active. The average number of storm days between 1950 and 1990 is a little more than 46 per year, so 1998 had nearly twice the average.
The 1998 Hurricane Season had 14 named storms (storms of tropical storm force or greater). The average number of named storms for the 1950-1990 period is 9.3, which means that the 1998 season produced better than 150 percent of the 40-year average. The past four years have been THE MOST ACTIVE HURRICANE-PRODUCING PERIOD EVER in the Atlantic Basin. There were 53 named storms - 33 were hurricanes and 15 of them were major. The 1999 Hurricane Season has the potential to be even more active.
Forcasters predict 14 named storms will form in the Atlantic in 1999 - 9 will become hurricanes, 4 of them will be intense (winds exceeding 110 mph). That would almost replicate the 1998 season, except that 1998 had only 3 intense hurricanes. Last year's hurricane season was ONE OF THE DEADLIEST IN MORE THAN 200 HUNDRED YEARS and is blamed for more than 12,000 deaths.
Warmer water in the Atlantic is helping to spawn more storms.
Dec. 17, 1999 — Cyclone Ilse hit the northwest coast of Australia on Friday, just two days after the powerful Category 5 Cyclone John had raged over the region. Ilse was downgraded to a Category 1 storm by midday and was located about 165 miles east-northeast of Port Hedland. The cyclone made landfall on the northwest coast near Sandfire Roadhouse on Eighty Mile Beach. A cyclone warning remained in effect for the coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Pardoo. Ilse was packing winds of up to 56 mph, but was predicted to weaken later in the day as it moved inland.