HOW TO AVOID NUCLEAR WAR BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE WEST (2008)

Dr. M. A. Fazal

INTRODUCTORY

A great threat to international peace and security is developing over the conflict in Georgia at the present time (in the summer of 2008) which carries with it the risk of an unprecedented holocaust affecting the whole world. The tension has been further aggravated by the 2008 agreement between Poland and the USA providing for the installation of US defence missiles in Poland. Russia sees this as a threat to its nuclear arsenal and has threatened a nuclear response whose effect may not be confined to Poland. According to the latest reports (available in 2008), Russia is strengthening its military force occupying the main port of Georgia while US navy ships are moving into another Georgian port with a view to strengthening Georgian military power. This shows that the world might be on the verge of a super-power conflict of an unprecedented nature. This is also likely to have consequences for the conflict in the Middle East. While the USA is providing support (including military support) for Israel, Russia is arming Iran and Syria with its advanced anti-aircraft missiles which may well neutralise Israeli superiority in the air. This, coupled with the offensive ballistic missiles, might affect the military balance of power between the parties to the conflict. The developing conflicts and tensions are likely to have economic consequences as well. The Middle East, Caspian Sea and Russia provide the main sources of oil and gas on whose supply the West is heavily dependant. All these call for urgent actions to prevent the world sliding into a major catastrophe.

ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION

There is a doctrine in the conduct of international relations known as the 'sphere of influence'. That is as follows: Each of the major powers has its own 'sphere of influence'. No outside power should extend its military activity into its 'sphere of influence'. Any such interference is likely to invite a military response. This is traced to the Monroe Doctrine propounded by the US President Monroe in his address to Congress on 2 December 1823. In this address, President Monroe warned the European powers not to seek to colonise any part of the American continent (both north and South America) which falls within the US 'sphere of influence'. Any such attempt to colonise or engage in military activity was liable to provoke a decisive military response from the USA. The doctrine was re-asserted by President Kennedy in October 1962 when the Soviet Union tried to install missiles in Cuba capable of attacking American cities.

Russia regards the territories of the former Soviet Union as falling within its 'sphere of influence'. The West has not only allowed the countries of the former Soviet block to join NATO, but has also extended its military influence into the territories of the former Soviet Union including Georgia, thereby breaching the doctrine of the 'sphere of influence'. This is what is provoking the Russian response. If Russian missiles in Cuba are not acceptable to the Americans, how could the American military presence in Georgia be acceptable to the Russians? Russia is now considering reviving its military presence in Cuba. It remains to be seen what the American response to Russian missiles in Cuba would be at the present time (compared with that in 1962).

REMEDY

The question is: how to save the world from a possible nuclear holocaust resulting from the super-power conflicts? It is submitted that the world should return to the Monroe doctrine (which is an American doctrine) of the 'sphere of influence'. This would require the West to withdraw militarily not only from the areas of the former Soviet Union including Georgia, but also from the countries of the former Soviet block, including Poland and the Czech Republic and cancellation of NATO membership of those countries. If Poland and Czech Republic were not members of NATO, the Americans would not have offered to install their missiles in those countries. It is the American decision to install missiles in Poland and Czech Republic that has been the most decisive factor behind the current tension between Russia and the West - tension that has the potential to plunge the world into a deadly nuclear war. Russia, on its part, should not revive the idea of installing its missiles (defensive or offensive) in Cuba. This, coupled with a 'just and fair' settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (on which the reader is referred to this author's article entitled "A Peaceful Resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict" available on this website advocating a federal solution to the problem as opposed to the two-state solution) ought to make the world a much safer place for the continuing existence of mankind.