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THe problem happens from a simple, yet big error. Back in the early 1960's computer programmers creating the first electronic computing systems made a decision. Minimize memory processor usage by designating the year as a two-digit fuction rather than a four-digit function.
For example, the year 1998 is recongnized digitally by the code "98". The problem becomes ugly when the date rolls over from "99" to "00" on Saturday, January 1, 2000, but instead as January 1, 1900.
The confusion may result in any number of scenarios. If the processors fail to recognize the "00" as an actuall value, they may get stuck in an endless loop, looking for a viable value and causing machinery and electronic systems to stop functioning. Or, systems may recognize the value as 1900 or some other previous date (may default to 1980) and wreak havoc on electronic billing syestems and time management systems which run continously and rely on accurate dates and time to function properly.
A problem also happens on March 1, 2000 because of the leap year 2000. The year 1900 was not a leap year so the computer misses a day of the year. This problem would also affect all the following leap years afte the year 2000, plus the leap years after the year 1900.
The problem first appeared in 1970 with calculations on 30-year mortgages, bonds and T-bills. To give you an idea of how long this has been know, the microprocessor was invented in 1971
Some credit cards are valid for four years. Issuers of such cards and some merchants that take creit cards started seeing problems in 1996 when they tried to enter expiration dates in the year 2000. One major credit card issuer had to re-issue a large number of cards with new expiration dates in 1999.
Y2K affects three basic types of things:
A lot of mainframe computer software is decades old. AS described above, it can't be upgraded in time.
Personal computers tend to have newer software. However, many large in-house networks will face the same problems. Also, every data file is given a time and date stamp. Many programs delete information once it is beyond a certain age–certainly infromation from the year 1900!
Embedded ‘chips' are digital electronic parts that are permanently soldered into circuit boards. In some cases they are aslo ‘ potted ‘ for protection, i.e., encased in epoxy resin.
Worldwide, there are about 50 Billion embedded chips. Most embedded chips cannot be reprogrammed. They must be replaced.
Many important embedded chips cannot be reached. Many chips are in satellites, on mountain tops, in pipelines or cables buried on the ocean floor, etc.
Often, replacement chips simply are not available at any price. Many of the manufacturers went out of business years ago. Many of the component parts fro the embedded chips are no longer made.
Hardware replacement cannot be automated. A lot of software is on networks. Sometimes, the network administrator can simly load a program and run it to update all related software on the network. In other cases, he can simply e-mail everyone on the network tel them "Run program XYZ.COM before you use your spreadsheet again."
But with hardware, each computer, each manufacturing robot, each intercom, each ATM must be physically opened, have intervening hardware temporarily removed, circuit boards removed, chips desoldered, new chips inserted and soldered, have each circuit board tested, have everything put back, and then be tested again and troubleshot if the entire unit no longer works. If something gets brken in the process, replacements forthatmust beobtained, installed and tested.
Hardware replacement cannot be done by amateurs. Many times, installation of a computer software ugrade can be done by someone with little knowledge of computers. This is not so with hardware.
Findingwhich parts need replacement requires electronic technician skills and experience on thatequipment. Doing replacements on a circuit board requires circuit reworking skills. Many manufactures will not permit their technicians to do circuit reworking because they don't have the necessary skills. Hence, it can take two people to repair one board. This is especially common on high-tech electronics– exactly the type most likely to be affectd.
With hardware such as computers, VCR's security systems and telephones, etc., advance the date to December 31, 1999 at about 11:58 pm. Wait for the date to roll over at ‘midnight' and see what happens.
Remember-With some equipment and computer programs, they fail when they roll over to 2000 but can simply reset the date manually to 2000 and they will work fine.
With software, type in some date-related inforamtion and see what happens. If the program always requires entering the complete year is probably will work okay. If a program calcualtes interest or the number of days between dates, see what happens if you want to calculate the interest or number of days from December 28, 1999 to January 5,2000.
If everything works fine, it has passed the first test....
Now see what happens when you set the date to Februrary 28, 2000 and February 29, 2000. The year 2000 is a leap year, but 1900 wasn't.
Most home electronics will not pose a serious problem. With home computers, installing the lastest operatin system and/or the latest version of the software should cure many problems. The only serious problems are likely to be in accounting and database programes. If a program doesn't work, you might be able to simply set the computer's date back when running that program, unless it uses date-sensitive data.
It is likely there will be interruptions in the food supply chain. It is a good idea to store up several weeks worth of non-perishable fods, beverages, etc., between now and the end of 1999. Don't wait until December 1999 to start!
It is almost guaranteed there will be interruptions in basic services such as electric power and "city water", ie., water supplied by a local district. You should prepare in the sme way you would prepare for a major storm, e.g., have several flashlights, candles, havey blankets, modern kerosene or similar space heaters(with safety features)
If you have a fireplace, get a big box and start keeping newspapers, junk mail, etc. (If you leave the box outside bugs will get into it.) Don't hae much storage space? How about:(1) under beds, couches, etc., (2) under the bottom shelf of bookcases, (3) between the back of a couch and wall, (4) move bookcases, china closets, etc., 1-2 inches away from the wall.
What would you do if all your credit and ATM cards were suddenly cancelled?
Some portion of the banking system will fail. There will be precautionary runs on banks even if nothng actually crashes. Some banks will have to place temporary limits on the amount that can be transfered out of an account per day.
During the final quarter of 1999 you shold try to store up as much cash as possible, kept in an accessible place such as your home. Don't wait until the last week of 1999 to start withdrawing money– precautionary bank withdrawals will already be well underway and you may get caught in a temporary freeze on withdrawals.
Cancel any direct deposit or direct withdrawal orders around September 1999 if at all possible.
| Y2K Links | |
|---|---|
| Y2K Information | Y2K.COM |
| Maple Square | City of Denton Challange |
