The Keys to the White House by Allan J. Lichtman

 

8 or more TRUE mean the incumbent party will win

 

6 or more FALSE mean the challenging party wins

 

KEY 1: Party Mandate

            After the mid-term elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House

            of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

 

KEY 2: Nomination Contest

            There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination

 

KEY 3: Incumbency

            The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president

 

KEY 4: Third Party

            There is no significant third-party or independent campaign

 

KEY 5: Short-term economy

            The economy is not in recession during the election campaign

 

KEY 6: Long-term economy

            Real per capita income growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth

            during the previous two terms.

 

KEY 7: Policy Change

            The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy

 

KEY 8: Social Unrest

            There is no sustained social unrest during the term

 

KEY 9: Scandal

            The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal

 

KEY 10: Foreign/Military failure

            The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs

 

KEY 11: Foreign/Military Success

            The incumbent administration schieves a major success in foreign or military affairs

 

KEY 12: Incumbent Charisma

            The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero

 

KEY 13: Challenger Charisma

            The challenging party candidate is NOT charismatic or a national hero