Governments Hope
LONDON Reuters - Governments will let out a collective gasp of relief if the world wakes up on January 1, 2000 with the mother of all hangovers, only a few unfortunates stuck in elevators, and the odd traffic light on the blink.
But analysts reckon some emerging nations with important economies are in deadly peril from the millennium computer bug.
And the damage may even infect crucial supply chains to western economies which have assiduously protected their own computer reliant infrastructures.
"Government is universally large and complex, and extremely difficult to change. Therefore the probability of (millennium bomb) failure is higher than for any other industry sector," said Andy Kyte, research director at Gartner Group.
Increasing fears about the consequences of the millennium bomb center on failure by many governments to organize action to safeguard their own operations.
Many governments which at least recognize there is a millennium bomb problem have exhorted companies to act, but have done little themselves.
Governments have been slower than corporations to recognize the devastating potential of the bomb. They find it more difficult than business to raise money and address sudden problems.
And in most countries around the world important infrastructure responsibilities rest with government.
Electricity generation is still often handled by publicly owned utilities. Any extended failure of power generation would quickly send living standards of people back maybe 100 years, analysts said.
Computer failure at government centers which organize pension, unemployment and social security payments could lead to rioting and looting if payments were delayed for weeks rather than days.
Many computers running software programs written in the seventies and eighties use two digits for dates, like "87" or "93".
At midnight on December 31, 1999 computers programmed this way may crash or spew out erroneous data when faced with the "00" of 2000.
The race is on to pinpoint computers which have this problem and fix them. But preparations for the millennium bomb still don't exist in some countries.
According to Ross Anderson of Cambridge University's Computer Laboratory, especially worrying is the lack of preparation in countries which are at a medium level of economic development, and which have important trading relations with the world's industrial nations.
"Watch this list. Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, South Africa, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates. You can see the economic importance of these countries," Anderson told Reuters.
Anderson pointed to the contrast between the policy of companies like British Telecommunications and countries like South Korea.
BT bought telephone hardware in the late 1980s and has spent around 500 million pounds making sure it is not destroyed by the millennium computer bomb.
South Korea bought similar equipment at around the same time and has spent nothing, because they see no problem.
They can't both be right," said Anderson.
"Either BT, Unilever and Barclays, which are spending nine figure sums on millennium bomb fixes, are being taken to the cleaners by consultancy firms to an extent completely unheard of in history, or their counterparts in the far east will hit the concrete," Anderson said.
Anderson said electricity generating plants are the linchpin of modern life. The millennium computer bomb places them in jeopardy. If power generation struck down economies like South Korea or Japan, vital components for western countries would soon dry up.
Early last month the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency said many countries appeared ill prepared for the disruption to basic services posed by the millennium bomb.
"We're concerned about the potential disruption of power grids, telecommunications and banking services," CIA head Sherry Burns said.
The CIA was collecting information on preparations for social, political and economic tumult that might flow from interruptions of essential services in some fragile societies.
Not all analysts go for this gloom and doom scenario.
Tom Oleson, research director at technology consultancy IDC in Framingham, Massachusetts, said that a power outage comparable to a massive blackout which hit the north eastern U. S. in the 1960s would be devastating.
"If something like that happened, that would be truly catastrophic. I don't believe that will happen," Oleson said.
"Another catastrophic event would be interruption of electronic funds transfer systems. That would be close to catastrophic if it went down for more than several hours. But I don't think that will happen," he added.
For Anderson, failure of electricity generation remains the biggest nightmare.
"Electric power is the critical utility. After more than about three days (of failure) everything just folds up. Trains, heat, refrigeration, water supplies all go. We'd be straight back to 18th and 19th century, and it would take 20 years to regain the lost economic capability," Anderson said.
Anderson said a shortage of cash from banks is likely to start months before the end of 1999, as the far sighted empty bank accounts.
The failure to pay social security if systems failed after 2000 would quickly victimize pensioners and vulnerable groups like the unemployed.
Last month the Group of Seven largest industrial nations agreed at a summit meeting that action was needed. But so far they have remained silent about their intentions.
Simon Reeve, author of the book, "The Millennium Bomb" said time is running out if a crisis is to be avoided.
"The best case scenario is that the world will wake on January 1, 2000 with a computer headache. The worst case is that the entire global economy will collapse, along with telecommunications, the Internet, satellites, and defense infrastructure," Reeve said.