The SAS System 21:14 Thursday, January 23, 2003 1

Obs Region Product Subsidiary Stores Sales Inventory Returns

1 Africa Boot Addis Ababa 12 $29,761 $191,821 $769

2 Africa Boot Algiers 21 $21,297 $73,737 $710

3 Africa Boot Cairo 20 $4,846 $18,965 $229

4 Africa Boot Johannesburg 14 $8,365 $33,011 $483

5 Africa Boot Khartoum 24 $19,282 $105,370 $700

6 Africa Boot Kinshasa 16 $13,921 $70,736 $553

7 Africa Boot Luanda 8 $6,081 $51,572 $325

8 Africa Boot Nairobi 25 $16,282 $66,017 $844

9 Asia Boot Bangkok 1 $1,996 $9,576 $80

10 Asia Boot Seoul 17 $60,712 $160,589 $1,296

11 Canada Boot Calgary 8 $17,720 $63,280 $472

12 Canada Boot Montreal 25 $40,213 $240,132 $1,472

13 Canada Boot Ottawa 5 $7,892 $28,162 $377

14 Canada Boot Toronto 16 $33,291 $149,118 $994

15 Canada Boot Vancouver 31 $286,497 $882,080 $9,160

16 Central America/Caribbean Boot Kingston 33 $102,372 $393,376 $4,454

17 Central America/Caribbean Boot Managua 17 $34,660 $162,033 $1,775

18 Central America/Caribbean Boot Mexico City 21 $20,819 $79,994 $814

19 Central America/Caribbean Boot San Juan 31 $32,892 $135,309 $1,504

20 Eastern Europe Boot Budapest 22 $74,102 $317,515 $3,341

21 Eastern Europe Boot Moscow 23 $67,476 $329,604 $3,142

22 Eastern Europe Boot Prague 11 $86,215 $341,326 $3,555

23 Eastern Europe Boot Warsaw 26 $78,992 $363,358 $3,246

24 Middle East Boot Al-Khobar 10 $15,062 $44,658 $765

25 Middle East Boot Dubai 15 $90,972 $403,259 $4,049

26 Middle East Boot Tel Aviv 20 $65,248 $222,165 $2,320

27 Pacific Boot Auckland 12 $20,141 $97,919 $962

28 Pacific Boot Canberra 21 $32,640 $188,437 $1,237

29 Pacific Boot Jakarta 6 $11,975 $50,645 $523

30 Pacific Boot Kuala Lumpur 15 $25,796 $143,063 $1,110

31 Pacific Boot Manila 21 $31,503 $110,179 $1,449

32 Pacific Boot Singapore 2 $1,520 $374 $120

33 South America Boot Bogota 19 $15,312 $35,805 $1,229

34 South America Boot Buenos Aires 16 $17,027 $39,291 $1,073

35 South America Boot Caracas 13 $63,697 $307,509 $2,731

36 South America Boot La Paz 21 $36,309 $100,618 $2,925

37 South America Boot Montevideo 15 $53,703 $150,601 $3,226

38 South America Boot Santiago 14 $14,907 $39,222 $939

39 South America Boot Sao Paulo 12 $44,720 $173,578 $2,471

40 United States Boot Chicago 16 $82,483 $305,061 $3,735

41 United States Boot Los Angeles 14 $85,932 $347,252 $3,283

42 United States Boot Minneapolis 16 $111,940 $615,489 $4,475

43 United States Boot New York 18 $97,151 $495,479 $3,983

44 United States Boot Seattle 15 $70,790 $226,678 $3,039

45 Western Europe Boot Copenhagen 2 $1,663 $4,657 $129

46 Western Europe Boot Geneva 22 $41,341 $171,030 $1,560

47 Western Europe Boot Heidelberg 14 $65,610 $301,779 $2,829

48 Western Europe Boot Lisbon 18 $76,349 $341,911 $3,290

49 Western Europe Boot London 31 $54,449 $289,527 $2,321

50 Western Europe Boot Madrid 1 $1,179 $1,027 $93

51 Western Europe Boot Paris 15 $19,196 $41,506 $1,006

52 Western Europe Boot Rome 23 $36,244 $209,271 $1,455

The SAS System 21:14 Thursday, January 23, 2003 3

Plot of Sales*Inventory. Legend: A = 1 obs, B = 2 obs, etc.

$300,000 ˆ

‚

‚ A

‚

$250,000 ˆ

‚

$200,000 ˆ

‚

T ‚

o ‚

t ‚

a ‚

l ‚

$150,000 ˆ

S ‚

a ‚

l ‚

e ‚

s ‚ A

‚

$100,000 ˆ A A

‚ A

‚ A B

‚ AA

‚ A A

‚ A AAA

‚ B A

$50,000 ˆ

‚ B A

‚ A AAA A A

‚ A A A

‚ A AAB

‚ DBB

‚ AB A

$0 ˆ CA

Šƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒ

$0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000

Total Inventory

The SAS System 21:14 Thursday, January 23, 2003 4

The REG Procedure

Model: MODEL1

Dependent Variable: Sales Total Sales

Analysis of Variance

Sum of Mean

Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F

Model 1 95804378965 95804378965 446.30 <.0001

Error 50 10733238966 214664779

Corrected Total 51 1.065376E11

Root MSE 14651 R-Square 0.8993

Dependent Mean 45203 Adj R-Sq 0.8972

Coeff Var 32.41272

Parameter Estimates

Parameter Standard

Variable Label DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t|

Intercept Intercept 1 -1863.51988 3015.25264 -0.62 0.5394

Inventory Total Inventory 1 0.25167 0.01191 21.13 <.0001

The SAS System 21:14 Thursday, January 23, 2003 5

The REG Procedure

Model: MODEL1

Dependent Variable: Sales Total Sales

Output Statistics

Dep Var Predicted Std Error

Obs Sales Value Mean Predict 95% CL Mean 95% CL Predict Residual

1 29761 46413 2033 42330 50495 16703 76123 -16652

2 21297 16694 2439 11795 21593 -13139 46527 4603

3 4846 2909 2852 -2820 8639 -27071 32890 1937

4 8365 6444 2738 945.9895 11943 -23493 36382 1921

5 19282 24655 2253 20131 29180 -5119 54429 -5373

6 13921 15939 2459 11000 20878 -13901 45779 -2018

7 6081 11116 2595 5905 16327 -18770 41002 -5035

8 16282 14751 2491 9748 19755 -15099 44602 1531

9 1996 546.5095 2932 -5343 6436 -29465 30558 1449

10 60712 38553 2056 34423 42682 8836 68269 22159

11 17720 14062 2510 9021 19104 -15795 43919 3658

12 40213 58571 2128 54297 62846 28834 88309 -18358

13 7892 5224 2777 -352.8020 10801 -24728 35176 2668

14 33291 35666 2081 31485 39846 5942 65389 -2375

15 286497 220133 8526 203008 237258 186085 254181 66364

16 102372 97139 3189 90733 103545 67021 127256 5233

17 34660 38916 2053 34791 43040 9200 68632 -4256

18 20819 18269 2399 13451 23087 -11551 48089 2550

19 32892 32190 2123 27926 36455 2455 61926 701.7740

20 74102 78047 2558 72908 83185 48173 107920 -3945

21 67476 81089 2648 75770 86409 51184 110994 -13613

22 86215 84039 2740 78536 89543 54101 113978 2176

23 78992 89584 2923 83714 95454 59576 119592 -10592

24 15062 9376 2647 4060 14691 -20529 39280 5686

25 90972 99626 3281 93036 106216 69469 129783 -8654

26 65248 54050 2074 49883 58216 24328 83771 11198

27 20141 22780 2292 18176 27384 -7006 52566 -2639

28 32640 45561 2032 41480 49642 15851 75271 -12921

29 11975 10883 2601 5657 16108 -19006 40771 1092

30 25796 34142 2098 29927 38356 4413 63870 -8346

31 31503 25866 2228 21390 30342 -3901 55632 5637

32 1520 -1769 3012 -7819 4280 -31813 28274 3289

33 15312 7148 2715 1694 12602 -22782 37077 8164

34 17027 8025 2688 2626 13424 -21894 37944 9002

35 63697 75528 2488 70532 80525 45679 105378 -11831

36 36309 23459 2278 18885 28034 -6322 53241 12850

37 53703 36039 2078 31866 40212 6316 65762 17664

38 14907 8008 2689 2608 13408 -21912 37927 6899

39 44720 41822 2038 37728 45915 12110 71533 2898

40 82483 74912 2471 69949 79876 45068 104756 7571

41 85932 85531 2788 79931 91130 55574 115487 401.2492

42 111940 153039 5494 142004 164074 121610 184468 -41099

43 97151 122836 4199 114402 131270 92223 153449 -25685

44 70790 55185 2086 50996 59375 25460 84910 15605

45 1663 -691.4745 2974 -6666 5283 -30720 29337 2354

46 41341 41180 2041 37081 45279 11468 70893 160.7300

47 65610 74086 2449 69167 79005 44250 103923 -8476

48 76349 84187 2745 78674 89699 54246 114127 -7838

49 54449 71003 2371 66241 75764 41192 100814 -16554

50 1179 -1605 3006 -7643 4433 -31646 28436 2784

51 19196 8582 2671 3218 13947 -21331 38496 10614

52 36244 50805 2049 46689 54920 21090 80519 -14561

Sum of Residuals 0

Sum of Squared Residuals 10733238966

Predicted Residual SS (PRESS) 17326290516

The SAS System 21:14 Thursday, January 23, 2003 7

Plot of res*pred. Legend: A = 1 obs, B = 2 obs, etc.

80000 ˆ

‚

‚ A

‚

60000 ˆ

‚

40000 ˆ

‚

R ‚

e ‚

s ‚

i ‚ A

d 20000 ˆ

u ‚ A

a ‚ A

l ‚ A A A

‚ B A

‚ AA A A A

‚ DBA BA A A

0 ˆ A A A A

‚ A A AA A

‚ A A

‚ A A A A

‚ A A

‚ AA A

‚ A A A

-20000 ˆ

‚

‚ A

‚

-40000 ˆ A

Šƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒ

-50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

Predicted Value of Sales

The SAS System 21:14 Thursday, January 23, 2003 8

The UNIVARIATE Procedure

Variable: res (Residual)

Moments

N 52 Sum Weights 52

Mean 0 Sum Observations 0

Std Deviation 14507.0902 Variance 210455666

Skewness 1.36886588 Kurtosis 8.56047016

Uncorrected SS 1.07332E10 Corrected SS 1.07332E10

Coeff Variation . Std Error Mean 2011.77144

Basic Statistical Measures

Location Variability

Mean 0.000 Std Deviation 14507

Median 1490.127 Variance 210455666

Mode . Range 107463

Interquartile Range 13527

Tests for Location: Mu0=0

Test -Statistic- -----p Value------

Student's t t 0 Pr > |t| 1.0000

Sign M 5 Pr >= |M| 0.2116

Signed Rank S -5 Pr >= |S| 0.9642

Quantiles (Definition 5)

Quantile Estimate

100% Max 66363.99

99% 66363.99

95% 17664.18

90% 11198.38

75% Q3 5435.19

50% Median 1490.13

25% Q1 -8091.63

10% -14560.53

5% -18358.44

1% -41099.01

0% Min -41099.01

The SAS System 21:14 Thursday, January 23, 2003 9

The UNIVARIATE Procedure

Variable: res (Residual)

Extreme Observations

------Lowest----- -----Highest-----

Value Obs Value Obs

-41099.0 42 12849.6 36

-25684.6 43 15604.6 44

-18358.4 12 17664.2 37

-16651.8 1 22159.5 10

-16553.9 49 66364.0 15

Stem Leaf # Boxplot

6 6 1 *

2 2 1 |

1 68 2 |

1 113 3 |

0 55667889 8 +-----+

0 0011122222333334 16 *--+--*

-0 44322 5 | |

-0 988855 6 +-----+

-1 4321 4 |

-1 8775 4 |

-2 |

-2 6 1 |

-3

-4 1 1 0

----+----+----+----+

Multiply Stem.Leaf by 10**+4

The SAS System 21:14 Thursday, January 23, 2003 10

The UNIVARIATE Procedure

Variable: res (Residual)

Normal Probability Plot

67500+ *

| +

| ++++

| +++

| ++++ *

| +++ **

12500+ ++++***

| ++******

| *********

| ***++

| ****+

| ****++

| ** *++

| ++++

| +*+

| ++++

-42500+ *

+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+

-2 -1 0 +1 +2

The SAS System 21:14 Thursday, January 23, 2003 11

Plot of Sales*Inventory. Legend: A = 1 obs, B = 2 obs, etc.

$120,000 ˆ

‚

‚ A

‚

‚ A

$100,000 ˆ

‚ A

‚

‚ A

‚

‚ AA

‚ A

$80,000 ˆ A

‚ A

T ‚ A

o ‚ A

t ‚ A

a ‚ A A

l ‚ A

$60,000 ˆ A

S ‚

a ‚ A A

l ‚

e ‚

s ‚ A

‚

$40,000 ˆ A A

‚ A A

‚ A AA

‚ A A

‚ A

‚

$20,000 ˆ A AA AA

‚ A B

‚ AB A

‚ A

‚ AA

‚ A A

‚ AB

$0 ˆ A

Šƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒ

$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000

Total Inventory

The SAS System 21:14 Thursday, January 23, 2003 12

The REG Procedure

Model: MODEL1

Dependent Variable: Sales Total Sales

Analysis of Variance

Sum of Mean

Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F

Model 1 43099093239 43099093239 518.38 <.0001

Error 49 4073983824 83142527

Corrected Total 50 47173077063

Root MSE 9118.25241 R-Square 0.9136

Dependent Mean 40471 Adj R-Sq 0.9119

Coeff Var 22.53006

Parameter Estimates

Parameter Standard

Variable Label DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t|

Intercept Intercept 1 4830.25907 2020.09361 2.39 0.0207

Inventory Total Inventory 1 0.20556 0.00903 22.77 <.0001

The SAS System 21:14 Thursday, January 23, 2003 13

The REG Procedure

Model: MODEL1

Dependent Variable: Sales Total Sales

Output Statistics

Dep Var Predicted Std Error

Obs Sales Value Mean Predict 95% CL Mean 95% CL Predict Residual

1 29761 44261 1288 41674 46849 25756 62767 -14500

2 21297 19988 1562 16849 23127 1397 38579 1309

3 4846 8729 1891 4930 12528 -9985 27442 -3883

4 8365 11616 1799 8001 15231 -7061 30293 -3251

5 19282 26490 1417 23643 29338 7947 45034 -7208

6 13921 19371 1578 16200 22541 774.8258 37967 -5450

7 6081 15432 1685 12045 18818 -3203 34066 -9351

8 16282 18401 1603 15179 21622 -203.9923 37006 -2119

9 1996 6799 1954 2872 10725 -11941 25538 -4803

10 60712 37841 1282 35265 40418 19337 56345 22871

11 17720 17838 1618 14586 21090 -771.8813 36448 -118.2374

12 40213 54192 1412 51355 57030 35650 72735 -13979

13 7892 10619 1830 6942 14297 -8070 29309 -2727

14 33291 35483 1295 32880 38087 16975 53991 -2192

15 102372 85694 2361 80948 90439 66765 104622 16678

16 34660 38138 1281 35564 40712 19634 56642 -3478

17 20819 21274 1530 18199 24349 2694 39854 -455.0047

18 32892 32645 1322 29987 35302 14129 51160 247.3202

19 74102 70099 1823 66436 73763 51413 88786 4003

20 67476 72584 1903 68761 76408 53866 91303 -5108

21 86215 74994 1982 71010 78977 56242 93746 11221

22 78992 79523 2138 75226 83820 60702 98344 -530.9424

23 15062 14010 1727 10541 17480 -4639 32660 1052

24 90972 87725 2437 82828 92622 68758 106692 3247

25 65248 50499 1351 47785 53213 31975 69023 14749

26 20141 24959 1447 22050 27867 6406 43512 -4818

27 32640 43566 1284 40985 46146 25061 62070 -10926

28 11975 15241 1691 11843 18638 -3395 33877 -3266

29 25796 34239 1306 31614 36863 15728 52749 -8443

30 31503 27479 1399 24668 30289 8941 46017 4024

31 1520 4907 2017 852.8654 8961 -13860 23674 -3387

32 15312 12190 1781 8611 15770 -6480 30861 3122

33 17027 12907 1760 9371 16443 -5755 31569 4120

34 63697 68042 1760 64506 71579 49381 86704 -4345

35 36309 25514 1436 22628 28399 6964 44063 10795

36 53703 35788 1293 33189 38387 17281 54295 17915

37 14907 12893 1760 9356 16430 -5769 31555 2014

38 44720 40511 1277 37945 43077 22009 59014 4209

39 82483 67539 1745 64033 71045 48883 86195 14944

40 85932 76212 2023 72146 80278 57443 94982 9720

41 111940 131352 4191 122930 139773 111185 151518 -19412

42 97151 106682 3176 100300 113064 87278 126086 -9531

43 70790 51427 1364 48685 54169 32899 69955 19363

44 1663 5788 1988 1793 9782 -12967 24542 -4125

45 41341 39988 1277 37421 42554 21485 58490 1353

46 65610 66865 1725 63399 70330 48216 85513 -1255

47 76349 75114 1986 71123 79106 56361 93868 1235

48 54449 64346 1652 61026 67666 45724 82968 -9897

49 1179 5041 2013 996.2638 9086 -13724 23806 -3862

50 19196 13362 1746 9854 16871 -5294 32019 5834

51 36244 47848 1317 45201 50496 29334 66363 -11604

Sum of Residuals 0

Sum of Squared Residuals 4073983824

Predicted Residual SS (PRESS) 4555469404

The SAS System 21:14 Thursday, January 23, 2003 15

Plot of res*pred. Legend: A = 1 obs, B = 2 obs, etc.

‚

30000 ˆ

‚

‚ A

‚

20000 ˆ A

‚ A

‚

‚ A A

‚

R ‚ A A

e 10000 ˆ A

s ‚

i ‚

d ‚ A

u ‚ A A A A

a ‚ A A

l ‚ B A A A

0 ˆ A A A A

‚ A A

‚ A AA A A A

‚ BAA A A

‚ A A

‚ A

-10000 ˆ A A A

‚ A A

‚

‚ A A

‚

-20000 ˆ A

‚

Šƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒˆƒƒ

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000

Predicted Value of Sales