Analysis of election 2004 and hopes for Republican gains in national and state government.
Last updated March 9th, 2004.
Current Makeup: 51 R, 48 D, 1 Ind
Republican Goal: 4-seat gain
Democrats will defend 19 senate seats in 2004, several of them vulnerable to a strong challenger; Republicans will defend 15, most of them safe.
U.S. House of Representatives
Current Makeup: 228 R, 205 D, 1 Ind
Republican Goal: 8-seat gain
All House seats are up for election in 2004, but only a portion are in competitive districts -- most districts strongly lean toward one political party. Republicans will attempt to defend a large crop of freshman legislators while mounting strong challenges to about 20 Democratic incumbents, half of whom are relatively moderate Blue Dog Democrats in conservative districts. About 25 members retire each year, and those seats will also be strongly contested -- at least in the primaries!
Current Makeup: 26 R, 24 D
Up for Election: 5 R, 6 D
Republican Goal: gain of 4 (total 2003 & 2004)
Only a third of governor's seats are up in 2004, and many are in small states -- recently elected governors in New Hampshire and Vermont (each serves only 2-year terms) will be favored but competitive, and several of the other races are shaping up to be barn-burners. The following states will elect governors in 2004: Vermont, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Montana, Washington, Indiana, West Virginia, Delaware, Utah, North Carolina, and Missouri.
Current Makeup: 52 R, 43 D, 3 no control, 1 non-partisan unicameral (Nebraska)
Up for Election: many
Republican Goal: gain of 3 legislative bodies to 55 total
Most states elect legislators every two years; the races are often hard to gauge but I will go in depth on the many state houses, assemblies, and whatnot that could switch from one party control to the other.
There will be an interesting Mecklenburg County Board of Commissioners race, as well as a few US House and NC House & Senate doozies to keep things spicy.