
Myron
Pollycove, M.D., Visiting Medical Fellow USNRC
Washington,
DC Professor Emeritus, Laboratory Medicine and
Radiology
University of California, San Francisco, CA
Presented
NCRP Scientific Committee 1-6 Meeting February 17, 1998
Abstract
The prime
concern of radiation protection policy since 1959 has been protecting DNA
from damage. The 1995 NCRP Report 121 on collective dose states that since
no human data provides direct support for the linear nonthreshold hypothesis
(LNT), and some studies provide quantitative data that, with statistical
significance, contradict LNT, ultimately, confidence in LNT is based on
the biophysical concept that the passage of a single charged particle could
cause damage to DNA that would result in cancer. Current understanding
of the basic molecular biologic mechanisms involved and recent data will
be examined after presenting several statistically significant epidemiologic
studies that contradict the LNT hypothesis. Over eons of time a complex
biosystem evolved to control the DNA alterations (oxidative adducts) produced
by about 10E10 free radicals/cell/d derived from 2-3% of all metabolized
oxygen. Antioxidant prevention, enzymatic repair of DNA damage, and removal
of mis- or unrepaired DNA alterations by apoptosis, differentiation, necrosis,
and the immune system, sequentially reduce DNA damage from about 10E6 DNA
alterations/cell/d to about 1 mutation/cell/d. These mutations accumulate
in stem cells during a lifetime with progressive DNA damage-control impairment
associated with aging and malignant growth. A comparatively negligible
number of mutations, an average of about 10E7 mutations/cell/d, is produced
by low LET radiation background of 0.1 cGy/y. The remarkable efficiency
of this biosystem is increased by the adaptive responses to low-dose ionizing
radiation. Each of the sequential functions that prevent, repair, and remove
DNA damage are adaptively stimulated by low-dose ionizing radiation in
contrast to their impairment by high-dose radiation. The biologic effect
of radiation is not determined by the number of mutations it creates, but
by its effect on the biosystem that controls the relentless enormous burden
of oxidative DNA damage. At low doses, radiation stimulates this biosystem
with consequent significant decrease of metabolic mutations. This reduction
of gene mutations in response to low-dose radiation provides a biological
explanation of the statistically significant observations of mortality
and cancer mortality risk decrements, and contradicts the biophysical concept
of the basic mechanisms upon which, ultimately, the NCRP's confidence in
the LNT hypothesis is based.
Background
The best scientific evidence of human radiation effects initially came
from epidemiologic studies of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
While no evidence of genetic effects has been found, these studies showed
a roughly linear relationship between the induction of cancer and extremely
high dose-rate single high doses of atomic bomb radiation. This was consistent
with the knowledge that ionizing radiation can damage DNA in linear proportion
to high-dose exposures and so produce gene mutations known to be associated
with cancer. In the absence of comparable low dose effects it was prudent
to propose tentatively the no threshold hypothesis that extrapolates linearly
from effects observed at very high doses to the same effects at very low
doses. It was accepted in 1959 by the International Commission on Radiological
Protection (ICRP)1 and afterwards adopted by national radiation protection
organizations to guide regulations for the protection of occupationally
exposed workers and the public.2 This hypothesis that all radiation is
harmful in linear proportion to the dose, is the principle used for collective
dose calculations of the number of deaths produced by any radiation, natural
or generated, no matter how small. The National Council of Radiation Protection
and Measurements Report 121, quot;Principles and Application of Collective
Dose in Radiation Protection," summarizes the basis for adherence to linearity
of radiation health effects:3 "Taken as a whole, the body of evidence from
both laboratory animals and human studies allows a presumption of a linear
no threshold response at low doses and low-dose rates, for both mutations
and carcinogenesis. Therefore, from the point of view of the scientific
bases of collective doses for radiation protection purposes, it is prudent
to assume the effect per unit dose in the low-dose region following single
acute exposures or low-dose fractions in a linear response. There are exceptions
to this general rule of no threshold, including the induction of bone tumors
in both laboratory animals and in some human studies due to incorporated
radionuclides, where there is clearly evidence for an apparent threshold.
However, few experimental studies, and essentially no human data, can be
said to prove or even to provide direct support for the concept of collective
dose with its implicit uncertainties of nonthreshold linearity and dose-rate
independence with respect to risk. The best that can be said is that most
[sic] studies do not provide quantative data that, with statistical significance,
contradict the concept of collective dose. Ultimately, confidence in the
linear no threshold dose-response relationship at low doses is based on
our understanding of the basic mechanisms involved. Genetic effects may
result from a gene mutation, or a chromosome aberration. The activation
of a dominant acting oncogene is frequently associated with leukemias and
lymphomas, while the loss of suppressor genes appears to be more frequently
associated with solid tumors. It is conceptually possible, but with a vanishing
small probability, that any of these effects could result from the passage
of a single charged particle, causing damage to DNA that could be expressed
as a mutation or small deletion. It is a result of this type of reasoning
that a linear nonthreshold dose-response relationship cannot be excluded.
It is this presumption [sic], based on biophysical concepts, which provides
a basis for the use of collective dose in radiation protection activities."
NCRP Report 121 summarizes that while some studies "provide quantitative
data that, with statistical significance, contradict the concept of collective
dose," "ultimately, confidence in the linear no threshold dose-response
relationship at low doses [LNT hypothesis] is based on our understanding
of the basic mechanisms involved." Current understanding of the basic biologic
mechanisms involved and recent data will be examined after presenting some
of the statistically significant epidemiologic data that contradict the
LNT hypothesis. The biologic data also contradict "the presumption, based
on biophysical concepts, which provides a basis for the use of collective
dose in radiation protection activities."
Epidemiologic Studies
What are some of the statistically significant epidemiologic studies that
demonstrate risk decrements (hormesis) as predicted by the adaptive responses
to low-dose radiation of the DNA damage-control biosystem? 4 For several
decades increased longevity and decreased cancer mortality have been reported
in populations exposed to high background radiation. Established radiation
protection authorities consider such observations to be spurious or inconclusive
because of unreliable public health data or undetermined confounding factors
such as pollution of air, water and food, smoking, income, education, medical
care, population density, and other socioeconomic variables. Recently,
however, several epidemiologic statistically significant controlled studies
have demonstrated that exposure to low or intermediate levels of radiation
are associated with positive health effects. Dr. Zbigniew Jaworowski, past
chairman of UNSCEAR, in his current review of hormesis cites recent data
showing hormetic effects in humans from the former Soviet Union.5 After
radiation exposure from a thermal explosion in 1957, 7852 persons living
in 22 villages in the Eastern Urals were divided into three exposure groups
averaging 49.6 cGy, 12.0 cGy, and 4.0 cGy and followed for 30 years. Tumor-related
mortality was 28%, 39%, and 27% lower in the 49.6 cGy, 12.00 cGy, and 4.0
cGy groups, respectively, than in the nonirradiated control population
in the same region. In the 49.6 cGy and 12.0 cGy groups the difference
from the controls was statistically significant
(Figure
1). Epidemiologic studies showing beneficial effects of low doses of radiation
in atomic bomb survivors
(Figure
2) and other populations were reviewed by Sohei Kondo, Professor of Radiation
Biology, Atomic Energy Research Institute, Kinki University, Osaka, Japan.6
Included are the apparently beneficial effects of low doses of external
gamma rays on the life span of radium-dial painters and the significantly
lower mortality from cancers at all sites of residents of Misasa, an urban
area with radon spas, than residents of the suburbs of Misasa
(Figure
3). [INLINE] These beneficial effects are consistent with the findings
of B. L. Cohen, Professor of Physics, University of Pittsburgh, that relate
the incidence of lung cancer to radon exposure in nearly 90% of the population
of the United States.7 The 1601 counties selected for adequate permanence
of residence provide extremely high-power statistical analysis. After applying
the BEIR IV 8 correction for variations in smoking frequency, the study
shows a very strong tendency for lung cancer mortality to decrease with
increasing mean radon level in homes, in sharp contrast to the BEIR IV
theoretical increased mortality derived by linear no threshold extrapolation
of effects in uranium miners exposed to very high radon concentrations.
The discrepancy between theoretical and measured slopes is 20 standard
deviations
(Figure
4). Rigorous statistical analysis of 54 socioeconomic, seven physical,
and multiple geographic variables as possible confounding factors, both
single and in combination, demonstrates no significant decrease in the
discrepancy. The multiple independent requirements that a possible unknown
confounding factor must meet, make its existence highly improbable. A reasonable
explanation is that stimulated biological mechanisms more than compensate
for the radiation "insult" and are protective against cancer in a low-dose,
low-dose-rate range. The thirteen-year U.S. Nuclear Shipyard Workers study
of the health effects of low-dose radiation was performed by the Johns
Hopkins Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Hygiene,
reported to the Department of Energy in 1991 9 and reported in UNSCEAR
1994.4 Professor Arthur C. Upton, who concurrently chaired the NAS BEIR
V Committee on "Health Effects of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation,"
10 chaired the Technical Advisory Panel that advised on the research and
reviewed results. The results of this study contradict the conclusions
of the BEIR V report 10 that small amounts of radiation have risk - the
LNT hypothesis. From the database of almost 700,000 shipyard workers, including
about 108,000 nuclear workers, three closely matched study groups were
selected, consisting of 28,542 nuclear workers with working lifetime doses
5 mSv (many received doses well in excess of 50 mSv), 10,462 nuclear workers
with doses <5 mSv and 33,352 non-nuclear workers. Deaths in each of
the groups were classified as due to: all causes, leukemia, lymphatic and
hematopoietic cancers, mesothelioma, and lung cancer. The results demonstrated
a statistically significant decrease in the standardized mortality ratio
for the two groups of nuclear workers for 'death from all causes' compared
with the non-nuclear workers. For the 5 mSv group of nuclear workers, the
highly significant risk decrement to 0.76, 16 standard deviations below
1.00, of the standard mortality ratio for death from all causes is inconsistent
with the LNT hypothesis and does not appear to be explainable by the healthy
worker effect
(Figure
5) 4. The non-nuclear workers and the nuclear workers were similarly selected
for employment, were afforded the same health care thereafter, and performed
the identical type of work, except for exposure to 60 Co gamma radiation,
with a similar median age of entry into employment of about 34 years. This
provides evidence with extremely high statistical power that low levels
of ionizing radiation are associated with risk decrements. Nevertheless,
Professor Arthur C. Upton and others consider the three-country low-dose
radiation and cancer study of Cardis, et al11,12, to be the best occupational
study of nuclear workers
(Figure 6). This study concluded, "There was no evidence of an association
between radiation dose and mortality from all causes or from all cancers.
Mortality from leukemia, excluding chronic, lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)
...was significantly associated with cumulative external radiation dose
(one-sided P value = 0.046: 119 deaths)." The statistical methods used
state, "As there was no reason to suspect that exposure to radiation would
be associated with a decrease in risk of any specific type of cancer, one-sided
tests are presented throughout." The authors' analysis of the 119 deaths
from all leukemias except CLL excluded 86 deaths in dose categories 1.3.4,
and 6 in which there were fewer deaths than expected. Trend analysis of
the remaining 33 deaths in dose categories 2, 5, and 7 for estimated P=0.046
was obtained "using computer simulations based on 5000 samples, rather
than the normal approximation."11 The Canadian Breast Cancer Fluoroscopy
Study13 reports the observations of the mortality from breast cancer in
a cohort of 31,710 women who had been examined by multiple fluoroscopy
between 1930 and 1952. The observed rates of mortality are related to breast
radiation doses and presented only in tabular form. The authors compare
linear and linear-quadratic dose-response models fit to the data and conclude,
"that the most appropriate form of dose-response relations is a simple
linear one, with different slopes for Nova Scotia and the other provinces."
On the basis of this linear model that includes only non-significant data
and excludes the data with the highest confidence limits
(Figure
7), the authors predict the lifetime excess risk of death from breast cancer
after a single exposure at age 30 to 1 cGy(1r) to be approximately 60 per
million women or 900 per million women exposed to 15 cGy. The observed
data, however, demonstrate with high statistical confidence, a reduction
of the relative risk of breast cancer to 0.66 (P=0.05) at 15 cGy and 0.85
(P=0.32) at 25 cGy. The second author, in his 1996 revision of this study,
removed this highly significant contradiction of the LNT hypothesis by
lumping all low-dose data into a single 1-49 cGy category.14 The study
actually predicts that a dose of 15 cGy would be associated with 7,000
fewer deaths in these million women. Lauriston S. Taylor, past president
of the NCRP, considered application of LNT theory for calculations of collective
dose as, "deeply immoral uses of our scientific heritage"15. METABOLIC
AND RADIATION DNA DAMAGE CONTROL During the past decade rapid advances
in our knowledge of molecular biology and cell function enable us to understand
why low-dose radiation is associated with positive health effects in contrast
to the carcinogenic effect of high-dose radiation. Our understanding is
based upon current, cellular molecular biology observations. Estimates
are based on published data and recent personal communications: * Two to
three percent of all metabolized oxygen is converted to free radicals (reactive
oxygen species),16 10E10/cell/d, that produce about 10E6 DNA oxidative
adducts/cell/d.7, 8 These include about 0.5 double strand breaks/cell/d.17
In addition, a relatively small number of metabolic DNA alterations are
produced by DNA replication and thermal instability.19 By comparison, 1
cGy low LET radiation produces 20 DNA oxidative adducts/cell that include
an average of 0.4 double strand breaks/cell.18,19 * Over eons of time,
as multicellular animals developed and metabolized oxygen, a complex DNA
damage-control biosystem evolved
(Fig.
8).17 The damage corresponding to 10E10 free radicals/cell/d is largely
prevented by antioxidants that scavenge approximately 99% of these free
radicals. The resultant 10E6 DNA oxidative adducts/cell/d are reduced by
enzymatic repair to about 10E2 mis/unrepaired DNA alterations/cell/d. Apoptosis,
differentiation, necrosis, and the immune system remove approximately 99%
of these mis/unrepaired DNA alterations so that an average of 1 mutation/cell/d
(possibly up to 2-3) accumulates during the lifetime of a stem cell to
decrease DNA damage-control capability with associated aging and malignant
growth
(Figure
8).17 Cancer increases as the third to fifth power of age. This remarkably
efficient biosystem prevents precocious aging and malignancy unless impaired
by genetic defects, or damaged by high doses of radiation or other toxic
agents. 9, 16-19, 22-33 * How does background radiation add to the metabolic
accumulation of mutations? A much larger fraction of double strand breaks
occurs in DNA oxidative adducts produced by radiation than in those produced
by metabolism (2x10E-2 vs 5x10E -7).17,21 The mis/unrepaired fraction of
these double strand breaks is also much larger than that of other metabolic
DNA oxidative adducts (10E-1 vs 10E-4). Nevertheless, the number of metabolic
DNA oxidative adducts (10E6/cell/d) is so much greater than the number
of oxidative adducts from low LET background of 0.1 cGy/y (5x10 -3/cell/d),
that an average of only 10E -7 radiation mutation/cell/d is added to 1
metabolic mutation/cell/d
(Figure
8).17
End of Part 1
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Acknowledgement:
This Article is reproduced with permission of Dr. M. Pollycove.
Feel free to send your comments to:
S. M. Javad Mortazavi
Biology Division , Kyoto University of Education
Phone (81 75) 644 8266
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