02.11.99
Recently, at the 1999 Toy Fair being held in New York City, Peter Main, executive vice president of marketing and sales, made a speech regarding Nintendo's future and how it pertains to the toy and games industries. While much of it we saw coming, Mr. Main made some bold predictions, foreshadowed some of Nintendo's future titles, and even hinted around at the release of the next Nintendo console.

His first bold prediction came early in the speech, as he was discussing the Game Boy franchise: "...worldwide, Game Boy Color system sales will surpass eight million by March 31st." After announcing the future release of Game Boy games with the Rumble Pak technology built into them and the release of over 100 titles specifically for the Game Boy Color, he continued on with his predictions about Nintendo and the industry as a whole.

Main's next prediction, in fact, was quite a shocker. "We believe that we have now just sold in 60% of all eventual hardware systems in this generation...and barely half of all games." That means the eventual peak of the N64, according to Main, will reach approximately 45 million consoles over the next three years.

Main continues on, sending a small stab at Sega's eventual release of the Dreamcast, and Sony's development of its next system. "Our most prominent shortcoming, I think, is our fatal attraction to new technology." He then begins to recount the days of the 16-bit era, and Sega's release of many new products from the Sega CD to the Saturn, which (as everyone knows) performed poorly against competitors in the U.S.

Main then warns that there is a lesson to be learned by game manufacturers: "The lukewarm reception so far in Japan for the new Sega Dreamcast machine should help our industry concentrate on reaping the full rewards of those big installed bases Nintendo and Sony have spent so much money and time to create." However, Main added, "it is inevitable, of course, that forward-thinkers and the hardest of hard-core gamers will be drawn to the promise of what's around the corner. They always are." Main hints at a possible release for Nintendo's next system "...that isn't going to occur in any meaningful sense until the fourth quarter of 2000...or more likely 2001."

Well, it seems that the future is bright for the industry, the way Peter Main sees it. We'll keep a score card and see how close to the truth Main is.