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Stability Over change

This year may have been about “change”, but at state level there was little. On November 4th Democrats held 28 governors’ mansions and Republicans held 22. The next day only one state had moved to the Democrats’ column. Most voters chose stability.

Republicans keep their posts

Of the 11 races this year, seven were virtual shoo-ins for those already holding office. On the Republican side, some governors kept their posts by contradicting current economicviews. While the rest of the country suffers, in North Dakota John Hoeven has overseen an energy boom and diversified the local economy. He became North Dakota’s first governor to win three four-year terms.

In Utah Jon Huntsman’s record of surplus money secured him 78% of the vote. Indiana’s Mitch Daniels, who has helped keep his state’s unemployment rate lower than its neighbors’, flicked away his challenger. Even Jim Douglas, a Republican and fiscal conservative in lefty Vermont, was able to fend off his Democratic opponent.

Democrats keep their posts

Three office-holding Democrats showed a firm grip as well. Montana’s superbly talkative Brian Schweitzer touted low taxes and a growing energy sector: “the show-horse” trotted briskly over his opponent. West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, who has lowered taxes and helped pay unfunded liabilities, won by more than 40 points.

New Hampshire’s John Lynch preached a record of fiscal prudence to a compliant people. And in Delaware one term-limited Democrat was succeeded by another, Jack Markell, who won 68% of the vote.

Jay Nixon takes Missouri

The only major upset was in Missouri, where Matt Blunt, the Republican governor, did not seek re-election. Kenny Hulshof, a Republican congressman, tried to succeed Mr. Blunt, whose unpopularity was matched only by that of the Belgian brewers who bought Anheuser-Busch this year. But Mr. Hulshof struggled through the primary, then wilted beside the sturdy campaign of Jay Nixon, the attorney-general. The Democrat won by 18 points.

North Carolina cuts it close.

The closest races were in North Carolina and in Washington. In North Carolina Beverly Perdue, the lieutenant governor, and Pat McCrory, the Republican mayor of Charlotte, battled to succeed the term-limited Democratic governor. Mr. McCrory had tried to capitalize on Mr. Obama’s message of change, but it was the Obama campaign’s surge of new voters that seemed to have the greatest effect. Ms. Perdue will be North Carolina’s first female governor.

The fight for the state of Washington

The nastiest fight was in Washington. In 2004 Christine Gregoire, a Democrat, defeated Dino Rossi by just 133 votes. Mr. Rossi did not concede the battle until June 2005. This election was an ugly repeat. Democrats filed a lawsuit to force Mr. Rossi to list himself on the ballot as a Republican rather than as “GOP”.  

Turning things around

On october 29th, Mr. Rossi gave a deposition about allegedly illegal fund-raising by a construction lobby. In the end, Ms. Gregoire looked set to win. These governors now have the unenviable task of governing. Falling oil prices may hurt North Dakota and Montana. Missouri’s unemployment rate is at its highest level since 1991.

Utah, once an oasis of fiscal stability, now has a mid-year budget gap of $354m. In Washington, state revenues for July-September, after adjusting for inflation, were 10% lower than they were during the same period last year, according to the Centre on Budget and Policy Priorities. Most states cannot run a deficit even in a downturn, but must raise taxes, cut spending or dig into reserves. The campaigns are over. Now for the hard part.

Full list of state governors