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China
 

 Antagonists

China

Taiwan

Russia

Mongolia

United States

Status

Potential

Connections

China

Mongolia

Russia

Taiwan
 United States

Explanation

China has a large and growing population. The need and desire to emigrate may force people into neighboring countries.

Historically the Chinese government regards all the former Mongolian area as historically Chinese. This includes Mongolia and parts of Russia.

Another area regarded as historically Chinese is the Russian Far East: Vladivostok and the Pacific coastal areas. As with Hong Kong the area was ceded by treaty but under duress. A weakened Russia might be seen as vulnerable.

Siberia is a large sparsely populated area which Chinese might wish to migrate into. In any case it was possible to imagine it may break away from Russia, while Russia was weak, though less so now under Putin.

China is growing its economy much faster than Russia, but Russia controls supplies of oil and gas that China may wish to import.

Do these facts point to a danger of war in the future?

How far is China likely to clash with the United States? China's economy is growing rapidly, and has undertaken a large part of the manufacturing for the United States, while lending the US the money to import its products. Thus the US seems to be a declining power, which could not combat its "bank manager". In February 2010 a US contract to supply weapons to Taiwan met with Chinese disapproval, which may have prompted China to sell US Treasury Bonds - weakening the US economy. President Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama in February 2010 also prompted China's disapproval.

Last revised 19/02/10


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