5 September 2000

CENTRE WILLING TO DUMP NATIONAL CONFERENCE AND HURRIYAT

From Jal Khambata

NEW DELHI: The Central Government is willing to dump the National Conference and the All-Party Hurriyat Conference in favour of the Hizbul Mujahiddin if the militant outfit gives up arms and joins the political mainstream in Jammu and Kashmir. This is one of the long-term political scenarios being actively considered in New Delhi.

According to sources, the assessment in New Delhi is that of late the National Conference has been losing ground in the state with a steady decline in its popularity among the people. In fact, the National Government is now increasingly being perceived as the party of oppression. As such the policy of successive government's at the Centre to prop up National Conference as the ruling party has now become a victim of the law of diminishing returns in the state.

Besides, the view gaining ground here is that the Chief Minister, Dr. Farooq Abdullah, is more interested in ever so often making financial demands on the Centre rather than improving things on the ground, such as stepping up of the developmental activities which had came to a standstill during the height of militancy and is now one of the key aspirations of the people of the state.

On top of it, those dealing with Kashmir affairs in New Delhi feel that Dr. Abdullah's long-term strategy seems to be to replace himself with his son, Omar Abdullah who is now a Union Minister. This project of Dr. Abdullah will have a long gestation period as the younger Abdullah is new to politics and requires a lot of political grooming to successfully sail through the turbulent waters of Kashmir politics.This, according to sources here, yet another major limitation of the policy of continuing Central support to Dr. Abdullah.

As for the Hurriyat, the Centre feels that its leadership has outlived its utility. Like the National Conference, the Hurriyat too does not enjoy the popularity it once did in the Kashmir Valley. It is felt that in the absence of muscle power, the Hurriyat will also lose its nuisance value. It was apparently for this reason that Union Home Minister L. K. Advani had rather sharply criticised the Hurriyat in the just-concluded monsoon session of Parliament.

On the other hand, the Centre sees a lot of advantages in doing business with Hizbul Mujahiddin, which is here considered to be the largest outfit "our own boys" in Kashmir. It is felt that in case Hizbul, whose leader in Pakistan, Salahuddin had been a victim of rigged elections in the state, agrees to lay down arms and joins the political mainstream, it would be able to deliver goods in Kashmir.

In such a scenario, New Delhi will be able to relatively easily and effectively be able to achieve its prime objective of restoration of peace in the state. It is felt here that once Hizbul gives up the path of violence, it would not be too difficult to tame the foreign mercenaries and other small outfits of militants operating in the state. Secondly, it is felt that Hizbul enjoys support on the ground and therefore it could play a major role in bringing about a qualitative change in Kashmir.

However, the sources stressed that these changes could not be brought about overnight because of the complexity of situation in the border state. As of now these could only be considered as the alternatives being considered here and should not be taken as more than indicative of the distance the Centre is willing to travel to restore peace in the troubled state. (EOM)