This is a feature item to provide you, my valued reader, with a quick analytical "snapshot" of the U.S. financial and commodity futures markets that most interest you. In a short paragraph I'll tell you if I'm bullish, bearish or neutral the market, and why.
N.Y. COFFEE.(December) Bearish. The big spike higher in July (frost scare in S. America) was a classic V-Top reversal on the daily bar chart. That was followed by a resumption of the downtrend. The monthly continuation chart for nearby futures shows coffee in a downtrend since 1997. Nearby futures prices are now trading at their lowest levels since 1994. Traders: Don't try to pick a bottom. Let this market show you some solid strength before you jump on the long side. When that strength does occur, there will be plenty of upside left, without trying to catch the bottom.
N.Y. COCOA. (December) Bearish. The Dec. contract has been in a general downtrend since last March. An outside day down on the daily bar chart Thursday further encourages the bears. For bulls to get back in the ballgame, they need to push prices back above the $900 level. The longer-term monthly chart is also bearish. Prices have been in a steep downtrend since early 1998.
N.Y. ORANGE JUICE. (November) Bearish. This market has been in a steep downtrend since June, with new for-the-move lows scored this week. Bulls need to push prices above the 74-cent level to negate the 2.5-month-old downtrend line on the daily bar chart. The longer-term monthly chart for O.J. is not friendly, either. Prices have been eroding since late 1998.
N.Y. GOLD: (December) Bearish. I get a lot of feedback whenever I analyze gold, and I don't expect this one to be any different. A lot of my readers are wanting to be bullish gold. However, there is just no strength in this market right now. Dec. gold has been in a downtrend since February. The longer-term monthly chart for gold shows prices in a downtrend since early 1996. I'll turn neutral to the gold market when prices can push back above the psychologically important $300 level.
N.Y. SILVER. (December) Bearish. This market has been in a downtrend since February of this year. The recent push higher has been met with good selling pressure that saw a solid drop in price Thursday. Prices closed below the psychological $5.00 area. I'll turn neutral in silver if prices can push above and hold above the $5.10 area. The monthly continuation chart for nearby silver futures shows price ranges narrowing 3.5 years, but I can't read that as bullish or bearish, since there were no solid long-term trends in the 1990s.
N.Y. PLATINUM. (October) Cautiously Bullish. This market is enjoying a four-month-old uptrend. However, prices need to push above Thursday's high. If they don't and sell off, a double-top reversal pattern on the daily bar chart could be in the offing. The monthly continuation chart for nearby futures looks bullish, too. Since mid-1999, prices have been in a steep uptrend. Traders wanting to jump on the long side right now should be concerned about boarding the train too late.
N.Y. Copper. (December) Bullish. Since mid-April this market has been in a strong uptrend. That uptrend has accelerated the past two weeks, after a period of consolidation in early August. The monthly continuation chart for nearby futures shows cotton in a solid uptrend since early 1999.
N.Y. NATURAL GAS. (October) (No opinion) Certainly, the trend is up. However, I cannot suggest playing the long side in this market when prices are at record highs.
LUMBER. (November) Bearish. New contract lows scored Thursday. The trend is down, and has been since March. The monthly chart shows prices at their lowest levels in five years. I wouldn't mind playing the long side in lumber at some point in the futures. HOWEVER, the market must first show me some signs of strength, as I won't try to pick the bottom.
