A Guide to
the 2002 Elections
U.S. Senate
This is the
most important prize of the 2002 elections.
With 34 seats up for election, currently the Democrats hold a one seat
edge. If the Republicans can capture the
Senate, President Bush will find it much easier to get legislation passed, and
even more importantly, have his judicial appointments confirmed. Democrats charge that a Republican Senate
would lead to legislation hostile to the environment, tax cuts that would
further harm the economy, and only weak attempts to control corporate
fraud. Pro-Choice supporters fear that a
Republican Senate would approve conservative judges that would weaken or
totally eliminate the right to an abortion.
Neither of Indiana’s senators is up for reelection.
Ten races bear
watching. The most important is Missouri
where Democratic Senator Jean Carnahan is in her first campaign. She was appointed in 2000 after her husband,
Gov. Mel Carnahan, died in a plane crash a few days before the election. Her Republican opponent Jim Talent, who
narrowly lost a race for governor two years ago, has portrayed Ms. Carnahan as
an ineffective senator. Because she was
appointed to fill her husband’s term, Carnahan would be replaced immediately if
she is defeated. Talent’s election would
give the Republicans temporary control of the Senate until the new Senate
convenes in January. Another good chance
for the Republicans to pick up a seat is in South Dakota
where Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson is in a close race with Representative
John Thune. Thune was urged to run by
President Bush, who has given his campaign strong support.
Democrats are
attempting to hold seats in New Jersey
and Minnesota under unusual
circumstances. When the Democratic
incumbent in New
Jersey suddenly dropped out of the race due to
ethics charges, retired 78-year-old Senator Frank Lautenberg was selected to
replace him. He is expected to defeat
Republican Doug Forrester. In Minnesota,
incumbent Paul Wellstone was in a tough race with Republican Norm Coleman when
he was killed in a plane crash.
Democrats chose former Vice President Walter Mondale to replace
him. The 74-year-old Mondale has not
held elective office since 1981 and was defeated when he ran for president in
1984. Democratic attempts to turn
Wellstone’s funeral into a campaign rally were viewed as tasteless and may
swing a close election to Coleman.
A number of
seats held by Republicans are predicted to be close. In New Hampshire, Republican John Sununu,
the son of a popular former governor, faces the current governor, Democrat
Jeanne Shaheen.
The race to replace Republican Senator Bob Smith, whom Sununu defeated
in a primary, is considered dead even.
Democrats also believe they have a good chance to defeat Arkansas Senator Tim Hutchinson. Their candidate is Mark Pryor, the son of a
popular former senator. In Colorado,
Republican Wayne Allard is being attacked as too-conservative by his Democratic
opponent Tom Strickland. Allard narrowly
defeated Strickland in 1998. Democrats
also have an outside chance at winning two open seats. In North Carolina, former Clinton White
House Chief of Staff Erskine B. Bowles has erased
much of the lead that Elizabeth Dole, the wife of former presidential candidate
Bob Dole, had early in the campaign.
Bowles has been able to outspend Dole and could pull an upset. In Texas, Democrat Ron Kirk, the former
mayor of Dallas, is attempting to
become the first African-American Senator elected from the South since
Reconstruction. He trails Republican
John Cornyn in the polls. A Kirk victory would be a major embarrassment
for President Bush in his home state.
Control of
the Senate may not be decided on Election Day due to the peculiar electoral
system in Louisiana. Mary Landrieu, the Democratic incumbent, is
likely to finish first on Tuesday against three different Republican opponents,
but she is unlikely to win the required 50 percent of the vote, forcing a
runoff in December. If that runoff
determines control of the Senate, it will draw both incredible national
attention and record campaign spending.
U.S. House of Representatives
All 435 districts are up and the Democrats need to gain six
seats to win control of the House from the Republicans. This is far more difficult than it seems
because of redistricting following the 2000 census. State legislatures across the country drew
districts that were designed to heavily favor either Republicans or
Democrats. Because of these “safe”
districts, as few as forty seats nationwide are considered truly
competitive. Only two seats of the nine
districts in Indiana are likely to be close, the second and seventh.
Republican candidate Brose
McVey hopes to defeat Democratic incumbent Julia Carson for the seventh district congressional seat, which
includes most of Marion County. Carson has been elected
three times, but since the census cost Indiana one congressional seat, the
boundaries of Carson’s district have grown to include more than 100,000 voters
who were formerly in a Republican district.
The only seat in Indiana without an incumbent is the second where
Democratic incumbent Tim Romer chose not to seek
re-election. This is one of the best
chances in the country for Republicans to pick up a seat as Chris Chocola
has a good chance to defeat former Democratic Congresswoman Jill Long.
The fifth district
covers the area north of Indianapolis
and is represented by Republican Dan
Burton who is seeking his 11th term in Congress. He should defeat Democrat Katherine Fox Carr by a wide
margin. The sixth district, east of Indianapolis,
should be closer than the fifth, but incumbent Mike Pence is favored to win a second term over Democrat Melina Fox. The district has been hit hard by the
economic recession, which should help Fox, but President Bush won 59% of the
district vote in 2000. Pence raised over $1 million or his campaign, Fox less than
$300,000. West of Indianapolis, incumbent Steve Buyer
should win the heavily Republican fourth district.
Incumbents are expected to win in Indiana’s four other districts. It would take a major upset to defeat
Democrats Peter Visclosky (1) and Baron Hill (9), while Republicans Mark Souder
(3) and John Hostettler (8) appear safe as well.
Governorships
Democrats appear to have a strong chance to pick up many
governorships across the country because, of the 34 seats up for election,
Republicans are defending 23 governorships, while the Democrats only 11. Two are held by retiring independents. Currently there are five female governors,
and this number could grow dramatically as there are a record ten female
candidates this year. Florida Governor Jeb Bush, the president’s brother, is
favored to defeat Democrat Bill McBride.
Indiana will elect its
next governor in 2004.
Indiana State Legislature
Currently
Democrats hold a 53-47 edge in the State House with all 100 seats up for
election. Republicans have a chance to
seize control of the House due to the state’s current financial difficulties,
which include $760 million budget deficit.
Polls show that Democratic Governor Frank O’ Bannon’s
popularity has plummeted due to the economic crisis and this may hurt Democratic
candidates.
One seat that
the Democrats believe that they have a chance to gain is in the northern Indianapolis area where David Orentlicher, a professor of law and
medicine at Indiana University,
is challenging the incumbent Republican James
Atterholt, who is a former aide to Congressman
Dan Burton. The 86th district
includes Butler-Tarkington, Meridian-Kessler, Nora,
Rocky Ripple, Williams Creek
and West Clay. Children in the district attend
Carmel Clay, Indianapolis, Washington
Township schools. Orentlicher
has criticized Atterholt's opposition to funding
full-day kindergarten and Atterholt's votes against
increasing sales, business, cigarette and gambling taxes to reduce property taxes
and ease the budget crisis. Atterholt has been endorsed by most business groups, while Orentlicher has strong union support. This race will spend more than any legislative
race in Indiana history. Atterholt has
reported raising about $297,000 and Orentlicher has
taken in about $257,000.
In the State Senate, where 25 of 50 seats
are on the ballot, Republicans hold a solid 32-18 majority and few seats are
expected to change hands.
Other Local Races
Democrat Frank Anderson appears to be favored to
beat Republican Tom Schneider and become Marion
County’s first African-American
sheriff. Other key Indiana
races are for Marion County Prosecutor, pitting Republican Carl Brizzi against Democrat Jim Osborn, and Indiana Secretary
of State, where Republican Todd Rokita is running
against Democrat John Fernandez.
Ballot Questions
Voters in many states will consider referendum questions as
well as vote on candidates. 203 measures
will be voted on 40 different states, including proposals to expand
after-school programs in California,
abolish bilingual education in Massachusetts,
and decriminalize Nevadans' personal use of marijuana. A Florida
proposal would set a maximum class size of 18 in the lower grades and 25 in
upper grades.
Oregon has
two of the most closely watched and intensely fought ballot issues. The more ambitious would provide
comprehensive health care for all residents; a second measure would require
labels identifying genetically engineered foods sold in the state.
This was compiled from reports by the New York Times and Indianapolis Star.