What are the ratings based on?
This system has evolved over 16 years and there’s over a man-year of
effort put into it. It’s not trivial. Initially, it was an
OPS type
system for hitting and pitching. Then fielding was incorporated.
The newest generation
includes situational elements and "chain" assumptions. In other words,
it takes
into account how many times certain situations occur and then
translates the situational
probabilities into a rating based on the probability of an outcome on
each card. It even
takes into account the fact that some players hit into many double
plays or that if someone is a good clutch hitter. The system is based
on total bases. It looks at
how often on average situations will occur and then measures the bases
advanced by runners
and the batter based on the outcome.
In the system, a point is awarded
for each base a
runner is advanced. So reaching first on a walk, single, or E1 gets you
1 base. We then
looked at average situations occuring to determine how many bases an
outcome impacts. For
example, a walk will move up any forced runner. We sum up the
probability of each
situation that advances a runner by the # of runners advancing. For
example, a home run
will advance all the base runners. As stated before, we assume bases
empty occurs 49.2% of
the time. A runner on first only occurs 22.2% of the time. A home run
will give 3 points
for any runner on first so we multiply the probability of this occuring
by 3. We do this
for all possible situations to come up with the total bases factor that
is the heart of
the rating system.
One other note, the rating system is slightly different for hitters
than pitchers. That's
because a hitter's average situational occurance (number of runners on
base) is
independent of his card. Whereas, a pitcher's average situational
occurance is dependent
on his card. That is, a batter can't influence the outcome of the
preceding batter, but a
pitcher influences all outcomes as long as he's on the mound.
Defensive ratings, speed, steal, wild pitch, passed balls, hold and
balks are all taken
into consideration by the ratings.
How have your teams done?
My partner (Wineman) and I have had 60 teams over 12 seasons. Our
winning percentage is .533. This includes 31 teams in the very tough
NLD live draft leagues.
We have 36 playoff teams (60%) and 11 Champs (31% of playoff
teams)
Only 12 teams have finished below .500.
In 28 autodraft leagues we have made the playoffs 24 times (83%)
with 8 championships (28% of our teams).
Are the Ratings perfect?
First off, let me say that this rating
system isn’t
perfect, but it’s pretty good at sorting guys into ranges where they
can be compared.
Ratings within a few points (20-30) of each other mean the players are
basically
equivalent and you have to look at what makes them different to decide
which one you want.
In the 2003 season stats we added injury adjusted ratings (thanks
for the suggestion Luckyman!) and listed
averages adjusted for the percentage of the time a clutch opportunity
occurs.
How does defense affect the ratings?
Yes, fielding effects the ratings,
but, obviously, not the hit ratings. We figure the probability of the
results from the X Chart, figure out how often it's going to happen,
apply the factors for the bad results (or good in the cas of DPs) and
then subtract that from the hit factors. Stealing and running are also
factored into the overall (and L and R ) ratings in similar fashion.
How do you account for player's
performance against both
sides?
I currently use 70/30 ratio for hitters and a more complicated
method for pitchers
that takes into account if they are better or worse against lefties or
righties. The percentage calculation for pitchers is more complicated
and depends on whether the pitcher is better against RHB or LHB.
Does it take into account BP issues or
does it assume
parks are neutral?
Yes, ballpark effects are taken into
account, but, by
default, I do the ratings using average of all parks.
How do you do the team ratings?
The method by which I rate a team is
pretty general. For
example, I take an educated guess at the number of innings pitched by
all the relievers. For example, it is quite
likely that your best set up guy will get more innings than the other
guys including your
closer. I also adjust for strong versus weak starting rotations and how
many innings they'll
get vis-a-vis the relievers.
Overall Rating - Sum of Starting Lineup
points –( 9* the
average pitcher rating)
The Average pitcher rating is:
(Aver Start rating) * %of anticipated starter innings + (Avg Rel
rating)*(1-%of
anticipated starter innings)
Start rating is computed by entering the anticipated number of starts
for each starter and
calculating the average from there.
Relief Ratings take into account how often a RP is expected to pitch. This is to compensate for the way Hal will (over) use setup and closers.
The starting lineup points take into consideration platoons on a 70/30 ratio.
Injury adjusted ratings are used in the calculation. These ratings are adjusted assuming a "standard" backup.
Bench is not considered.
How accurate are the team ratings?
Team ratings are a rough guide unless I know details about
the division and
league. The margin of error is probably around 200 points. There
are
so many variables that go into how a team performs in relation to
their rating. The
biggest is how tough is the division. Given the unbalanced nature of
the schedule
this is a huge factor.
Will improving my team rating always give me a better team?
Not always, slight increases don't always correlate to more wins.
Good teams have a
synergy of the components that can't be fully rated by a ranking
system. For example, the
team rating doesn't account for whether you have a closer or not
or for the fact that you have only
right handed hitters.
Why do managers have their team rated?
Some of the teams looking for ratings were either pre-draft, or
pre-starting so they
can still make moves, and others are looking for either validation that
they stink and
should make moves, or that they are just off to a slow start and should
sit tight.
Do ratings take injuries into account?
Yes
Can you win without the ratings?
Clearly you can. I just think it takes a
lot more time and
experience to really understand who's a bargain and who's not without
them. An important
factor is to know how to put a team together. The ratings are going to
help the less
experienced players, especially those who are not very familiar with
SOM, much more than
the experienced guys.
Who are the bargain players?
Buy the player rankings and find out! Ratings can be easily
compared to the price of
the player to find the bargains.
What if you didn't answer my question?
Email me at JoeTheJet@iwon.com
or gmail
