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by Kevin Jay


Send any Fantasy Football questions or comments about this column to: 2kevinjay@go.com


  • HOT NEWS:  This is the last column for the 1999 season.  I'd like to thank Mike at Fantasy Madness for including my articles on his site.  Also, thanks to all the people who e-mailed questions to me.  I hope my advice helped.


  • The Last Impression

    This season is more or less in the books now, so this weeks column looks toward next year and how to avoid some common mistakes I see other owners make.  In fantasy football, sometimes owners view a players worth by their last game.  An owner in my league already told me he'd like to get Steve McNair as his quarterback next year.  He asked me to look up where he got drafted this year.  I told him McNair was the last pick of the 3rd round.  "I guess I'll probably have to use my 1st or 2nd pick on him next year," the owner said.   Sure, he could be bluffing, but I have a feeling he was being serious!  I know this was caused by McNair throwing 5 TD passes in Week 16, but shouldn't you look at what McNair did the other 15 weeks?

    1999 Performance Info for Steve McNair
    ======================================

    Week 1:  35 FFL points  vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL Score: 36 - 35)
     Passing: 21 of 32 for 341 yards (1 Int)  TD Yardage: 13,47,17
     Rushing: 6 for 27 yards  TD Yardage: 1

    Week 2- Week 7:   0 FFL points. Was injured.

    Week 8:  26 FFL points  vs. St. Louis Rams (NFL Score: 24 - 21)
     Rushing: 12 for 36 yards  TD Yardage: 10
     Passing: 13 of 29 for 186 yards (0 Int)  TD Yardage: 1,17

    Week 9:   7 FFL points  vs. Miami Dolphins (NFL Score: 0 - 17)
     Rushing: 7 for 33 yards
     Passing: 22 of 42 for 205 yards (3 Int)       NO TD's PASSING

    Week 10:  12 FFL points  vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL Score: 24 - 14)
     Rushing: 5 for 14 yards  TD Yardage: 1
     Passing: 12 of 25 for 103 yards (0 Int)       NO TD's PASSING

    Week 11:  19 FFL points  vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (NFL Score: 16 - 10)
     Rushing: 10 for 20 yards  TD Yardage: 2,3
     Passing: 14 of 26 for 149 yards (1 Int)       NO TD's PASSING

    Week 12:  18 FFL points  vs. Cleveland Browns (NFL Score: 33 - 21)
     Rushing: 7 for 45 yards  TD Yardage: 1
     Passing: 18 of 36 for 179 yards (0 Int)      NO TD's PASSING

    Week 13:  15 FFL points  vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL Score: 14 - 41)
     Passing: 28 of 48 for 288 yards (2 Int)      NO TD's PASSING
     Rushing: 6 for 33 yards
     2-Point Conversions: 1 Passing

    Week 14:   9 FFL points  vs. Oakland Raiders (NFL Score: 21 - 14)
     Rushing: 4 for 5 yards  TD Yardage: 1
     Passing: 12 of 20 for 114 yards (1 Int)      NO TD's PASSING

    Week 15:  27 FFL points  vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL Score: 30 - 17)
     Rushing: 9 for 76 yards  TD Yardage: 3
     Passing: 15 of 29 for 216 yards (0 Int)  TD Yardage: 48

    Week 16:  37 FFL points  vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL Score: 41 - 14)
     Rushing: 4 for 34 yards
     Passing: 23 of 33 for 291 yards (0 Int)  TD Yardage: 4,62,2,65,13

    There were 6 games he played and failed to throw a single TD pass!  Sure he runs for more TD's than the average QB, but I truly believe he gets taken higher than he should almost every year.  If I had to pick my QB for next year right now, I'd take at least 6 QB's before McNair: Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner (if he's still the Rams starting QB when Trent Green comes back- and I think he should!), Brad Johnson, Brett Favre (his hand will heal by next year!), Drew Bledsoe, and Jeff George (if he's still in Minnesota).  Of those 6, Peyton Manning is probably the only one I'd take with a first round pick.  When I place a value on a player before the draft I usually like to throw out his worst game and his best game and average the rest of his season.

    The whole point of drafting is getting the player at the right time. The owner that got McNair in the 3rd round this year had Emmitt Smith and Ricky Watters in the first 2 rounds.  If he had taken McNair #1, he could still have had Smith with #2, but Watters would have been long gone by the time he picked at the bottom of round 3.  Since he took Adrian Murrell with his #4 pick there's a good chance that's who he'd have been stuck with as his #2 back this year.

    That leads me to another mistake I see made at the draft.  Don't draft back-ups before you have your starters in place.  The only time I'd make exceptions to this is if there is a truly GREAT player out there you don't want someone to get or if you are certain you could trade one of the players later to improve your team.  With Smith, Watters, and McNair in place, I thought it was a mistake to take a 3rd RB with his 4th pick.  He could have added a top notch receiver like Marvin Harrison, Tim Brown, Ed McCaffrey, Terry Glenn, or Michael Westbrook in this round.  Instead he waited until round 5 and got O.J. McDuffie.

    Another owner in my league made a simliar mistake in the same round.  His first 3 picks were: Antonio Freeman, Edgerrin James, and Peyton Manning.  In round 4, he choose Troy Aikman.  You can only start one QB a week, so every week he was going to be benching a 3rd or 4th round pick.  There were too many quality players still on the board that could have helped his team every week, to be taking a back-up QB.  Also, if he really wanted Aikman, I have a feeling he could have still had him about 5 rounds later.  This guy's team came out strong due to having Manning and James, but he fizzled at the end.  He lost 4 of his last 5 games, due to lack of depth at RB and WR.  And he started Aikman only 2 times during the season!

    So there are a couple things to keep in mind as you look toward next year.  If you still have a copy of your draft, go back through it and look at each team.  It's interesting to see what they could have done differently. Looking at my draft, I see things I'd like to change myself.   I'm still not sure why I took Herman Moore in the 4th round when I could've had Marvin Harrison!  I had Harrison on my team in 1998, so I was very aware of what he could do and I WANTED him this year.  I just thought I could take him a round or two later.  WRONG! He went the very next pick!

    Oh well, I ended up winning the league championship so I can't complain!  That's a repeat championship, thank you very much!  Now, should I do like my favorite player John Elway and walk away from the game while on top or should I try for the Three-peat?

    I think I know the answer... see you next year!


    Send any Fantasy Football questions or comments about this column to: 2kevinjay@go.com


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