Brad's BIG Race Analysis-99 Breeders' Cup Edition

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Brad's BIG Race Analysis
Breeders' Cup Edition

Chris McCarron and Sunday Silence survive the '89 Classic at Gulfstream

The 16th Running--November 6, 1999

Selected Views From Gulfstream's Grandstand
I took these shots in August. Maybe they'll help a few of you.

WAGERING:

Win, Place, Show, Exacta, and Trifecta on all races. Superfectas Sprint through Classic. Rolling Pick-3s Distaff through Juvenile. Pick-6 begins with the Mile. Daily Doubles on the Juvenile Fillies/Mile and Turf/Classic.

The Races

The Distaff
Inside Information 1995 (1 1/8) @ Belmont 1:46
Lady's Secret 1986 (1 1/4) @ Santa Anita 2:01:1

Previously @ Gulfstream:

1989-Bayakoa pressed a moderate pace and took the lead with a half mile remaining. 1992-Paseana went 4-wide into the first turn and took the lead while 3-wide into the second turn, winning by 4 over Versailles Treaty.

The BIG Angle: Look for a winner at 1 1/8 during the year.

1:10pm Eastern

1. BEAUTIFUL PLEASURE--Okay, so I know she's gonna be favored. At least, I think she will be. Crazier things have happened and you don't know how high Baffert Fever will be running. She's been working well at Keeneland. She won't get slop here, but I can't see anyone going with her either. If she cuts anywhere close to 46 and she's clear, you can kiss the rest bye-bye. Ward winning 21% on the year and he and Chavez winning 29% in tandem.

2. SILVERBULLETDAY--She's had a long hard drive and I'm not so sure she wouldn't like to have a long break about now. Not to be though as now she faces the toughest race of her career. If she wins this, she's going to garner a lot of Horse Of The Year votes. I wouldn't argue. But I don't think she's going to win. She'll make a race of it on class alone. Likely to be in closer attendance with Beautiful Pleasure. The stretch between these two should be a classic!

3. BANSHEE BREEZE--She worked 9 furlongs this week. There's something about that situation that bothers me. I just haven't figured out what it is yet. I feel that she's lost a step or two since last year. That 4 for 4 at Gulfstream is staring me in the face as I write this. Perhaps if I'm feeling hungry on Saturday night I can print this, apply some salt and pepper, and enjoy a nice 20 lb bonded snack. But I'm going to say she doesn't even get the place here.

4. Heritage Of Gold 5. Keeper Hill

The Juvenile Fillies
Countess Diana 1997 (1 1/16) @ Hollywood 1:42:1
Twilight Ridge 1985 (1 mile) @ Aqueduct 1:35:4

Previously @ Gulfstream:

1989-Go For Wand pressed a moderate pace in the 3-path and registered an impressive win. 1992-Eliza, while 4-wide into the first turn, pressed a strong pace and drew off with 1/2 mile to go besting Educated Risk.

The BIG Angle: Turn time is key here. Also, a prep within the last 4 weeks.

1:43pm Eastern

1. SURFSIDE--A lot of good karma here. Flanders was a gutsy winner in this race a few years back. Seattle Slew needs no introduction. The result is this filly who has the potential and now the base, to become a monster! Watch out next year. The coronation however, comes today.

2. DARLING MY DARLING--Wouldn't be surprised if she wins this either. She likely had nothing left when Surfside went by last time. Also hard to tell how much that took out of her. Though works have been very good, they've been at Keeneland. One thousand miles away. McCarron, as always, a plus. The Ward combo winning 21% this year.

3. CHILUKKI--Have to have doubts about her distance capabilities after the last 2. Still, she's got heart and Baffert on her side. That's what's going to save 3rd for her. Without one or the other, she's just another player in an evenly matched field. Breeding shouts sprint. Baffert still winning an incredible 31% shipping and in graded races.

4. Scratch Pad 5. Warrior Queen

The Mile
Royal Heroine (IRE) 1984 @ Hollywood 1:32:3

Previously @ Gulfstream:

1989-Jose Santos makes a bold move to the hedge late with Steinlen and wins by 3/4 length in a blanket finish. 1992-Lure hugs the hedge the whole way setting fast fractions. Longshot closers Sabona and Most Welcome get the place and show.

The BIG Angle: This is a distance specialist race. Look for those with plenty of experience at 1 mile.

2:20pm Eastern

1. JIM AND TONIC-- We might not ever know if he could have won the Atto at Woodbine. Not after Patient Pat whacked him in the face with the whip aboard Hawksley Hill. Accidentally, of course. Still this guy continued on and got within a half length of the winner. He can handle the soft courses and has been in quite a few tussles in his day with the likes of Labeeb, Fly To The Stars, Borgia, Seeking The Pearl, Loup Sauvage and many others. He gets my vote as the first Euro-turfer to win at Gulfstream.

2. MIDDLESEX DRIVE--The hedge is the place to be here, especially if you have speed. And he does. A bit concerned he might bounce off of that huge Kelso effort. He had a nice break before that and has shown the ability to string a couple together so he must be used here. Sellers and Hauswald winning 31% from 13 starts.

3. DELAY OF GAME--Comes into this race off of a similar track configuration and most likely, condition. He was kept in close attendance and swung six-wide for the drive. A bit more ground saved and he would have won the Keeneland Turf Mile over Kirkwall.

4. Hawksley Hill 5. Brave Act

The Sprint
Elmhurst 1997 @ Hollywood 1:08

Previously @ Gulfstream:

1989-Cordero gets the fast closing Dancing Spree up by a neck after Safely Kept sets some tremendous fractions. 1992-Baffert's Thirty Slews presses the whole trip in the 2-3 path and just gets up by a neck over Meafara completing $621 exacta.

The BIG Angle: The betting favorite is only 3 for 15 here.

2:53pm Eastern

1. BIG JAG--Though he's coming off of a near-career best effort, he is set up perfectly to improve off of that, IMO. On his day, he can lay off of whatever pace is set and put on the afterburners late to capture the tiring victim. The perfect profile for this race. Interesting to note both of the grandsires; Affirmed and Alydar. Didn't care much for the slop the other day, but the work before that at GP in 47 and change was nice. He's been here plenty of time to acclimate. Horses that last race in California are 1 for 14 here. That one win was in the 92 Sprint with Thirty Slews.

2. KONA GOLD--Right there with BJ in the San Carlos and Palos Verde. He too has room to move under his previous top and with Californians with good tactical speed faring extremely well in this race, it's not a stretch that these two could comprise the exacta.

3. FORESTRY--Scintillating performance in the King's Bishop at the Spa. He hasn't raced since then however and is winless at the distance. I have to knock him to 3rd for that. Is anybody gonna be surprised if he wins though? I don't think so. He's worked well at GP but all of Bob's work well.

4. Good And Tough 5. Stravinsky

The Filly and Mare Turf

Initial running.

3:24pm Eastern

1. BORGIA--Merits consideration because of the company she has kept all year long. She is 4-2-2 against the girls though, and on her best could win easily. How far from her best is she? We'll find out. It won't take much for me to fall back on Soaring Softly if the board tells me too. SS should be favored though and this one will likely go off at a pretty nice price. Thus, I'm putting her on top here. If ever a race called out for a box though, this is it.

2. SOARING SOFTLY--You won't likely get value here, but she has to be considered a MAJOR force in this race. She's 6 of 7 this year, owns a win over this course, has won at the distance impressively while closing into a walk for the pace. She's done everything but recite Shakespeare while doing hand..er uh, hoof-stands. Turns and course condition a concern. But overall, very strong.

3. CORETTA--Owns a win over this course and faced open company here earlier in the year when Yagli beat her by 4 1/2 in the GPBC H'cap. Slipped and fell 2 races later in the Black Helen in what was a frightening moment. However, she's come back quite well and was just caught by Soaring Softly in the Flower Bowl. I expect a repeat here, with these two contesting to the wire on a track they both love.

4. Louve 5. Zomarahdah 6. Spanish Fern

The Juvenile
Favorite Trick 1997 (1 1/16) @ Hollywood 1:41:2
Success Express 1987 (1 mile) @ Hollywood 1:35:1

Previously @ Gulfstream:

1989-Craig Perret takes Rhythm down to the rail into the final turn and he draws away for 2 length victory over Grand Canyon and Slavic. 1992-Undefeated Gilded Time runs 5th inside on the first turn, then McCarron swings him 4-wide entering the final turn and he strides forward to win by 3/4 length.

The BIG Angle: The winner will have raced within 4 weeks. Dosage means nothing here.

3:57pm Eastern

1. CAPTAIN STEVE--From the dynamic duo that brought you Silverbulletday, and Real Quiet. He came to life at Keeneland. Was it the slop? Maybe, but if he pairs that up he's an easy winner here. It doesn't hurt any that his daddy won the Florida Derby on this track 8 years ago. For that reason alone I give him the credit due to be a huge factor here. Likely to be a decent price as well with the attention focused on his higher-profile, and less likely to care for the distance stablemate.

2. DIXIE UNION--It would be nice to see Mandella with a BIG shot at the classics come spring time. This could be the one. Nicely bred and apparently ready to tackle the extra distance. Beautiful 6 furlong work on the 29th tells me he is a threat here. Solis and Mandella combining for 26% winners with a positive ROI.

3. MULL OF KINTYRE--One look at the breeding(Danzig out of an Easy Goer mare) tells you that he should be given a chance this spring on the Derby trail. His efforts on the other side of the marble are nice indicators as well. Group 2 winner at 6 furlongs last out. Came on again in a group 3 sprint before that to miss by 1 1/4, and won his maiden by 7. Don't be surprised if he wins this either!

4. Kiss A Native 5. Chief Seattle

The Turf
Chief Bearhart 1997 @ Hollywood 2:23:4

Previously @ Gulfstream:

1989-Delahoussaye gets Prized up by a head in a blanket finish over 25-1 shot Sierra Roberta. 1992-14-1 Fraise lopes along last most of the trip improving position slightly entering the final turn. Valenzuela slips him through to the hedge and he charges through to nip favored Sky Classic with inches to go.

The BIG Angle: A grade 1 winner and 1 1/2 winner during the year have the edge. If both, all the better.

4:30pm Eastern

1. DAYLAMI--Could be the shortest priced winner of the day, and I fully expect him to win. This huge grey dappled muscle-boy pranced into the US last year and stole the Man O War. Well, not so much stole, just took what was rightfully his. Workouts here, without being on the preferred surface, have been nice. In fact, BRISmeister Toby Callet gave him "Work Of The Day" title 3 times over the past few weeks. By his own admission, that just doesn't happen. Don't confuse that draining bog in Paris for this yielding surface. He'll likely find it just perfect. Godolphin shoots--and scores!!!

2. VAL'S PRINCE--007 has used the Saratoga-Payson connection well here. He has certainly come alive since coming in and though he's 7, he shows no signs of it. Looked fabulous and well within himself last Sunday morning at Payson, just before dawn. Not concerned about his stamina as even after this start, he will have had one less than last year. Gearing down, but still a fighter. 5-1-1-1 at Gulfstream.

3. HONOR GLIDE--Given a break after the Man O' War, Clement has now been firing the 5 furlong works into him at Payson. Each, a bit faster than the one before. I expect he'll be ready to fire in this one and the 5 year-old could end up challenging the BIG grey for the lead. A bit of a BIG assignment off the break, but Clement alone worth the price of admission.

4. First Magnitude 5. Courteous

The Classic
Skip Away 1997 @ Hollywood 1:59

Previously @ Gulfstream:

1989-"A Racing Epic", as Tom Durkin describes it. Sunday Silence and McCarron stay in close attendance to the pace making their move entering the final turn. Easy Goer sits chilly most of the way making a late charge but failing by less than 1/2 length. 1992-Delahoussaye gets AP Indy out early and settles in 4th entering first turn. Racing strongly entering the final turn he moves inside, puts his head down in his unforgettable style, and draws off to win by 2.

The BIG Angle: Grade 1 winner, and dosage under 4.0 please.

5:10pm Eastern

1. BEHRENS--A promising 3 year-old, missing in action after Dubai at 4, he has really come into himself this Summer and is the picture of health and wealth. He's 6-2-2-1 at Gulfstream and I expect him to show off the grit and gumption he has honed this year. The race of the year, and probably since Skip Away's Woodward, was the Whitney where Victory Gallop ended his career with a head-bob win over him, at quite a cost. Behrens was coming on at the end of the JCGC and Bond has handled with care. If he follows his pattern of the last 5 races, he's much the best here.

2. ECTON PARK--What a year for this guy. He starts out at Gulfstream, finishing 2nd in an allowance. Elliot moves him to Louisiana as to not butt heads with Menifee. He wins the Risen Star over last year's juvy winner Answer Lively. Finished a neck back in the Louisiana Derby. Was one of the "Valhol Victims" at Oaklawn. Seventh in the meat-grinder in Louisville. But since then, honest. Real honest. Last out in the Super Derby he was just that. Super. Now he's come full-circle back to where it all began. And with that, a chance to show Elliot that he shipped out the wrong boy way back in January!

3. LEMON DROP KID--Hard to ignore this guy. Scotty told us, and we didn't believe him! At least, not for awhile. There are scenarios that could play out and put him into the HOY picture with a win here. He'll make it interesting no doubt. The works here since returning are nothing short of sensational. I'll be using him on top too, if the board allows. 3 year-olds have enjoyed decent success in this race. What kind of odds 10 months ago???

4. General Challenge 5. Vision And Verse

Best of luck and enjoy the day!!!

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