The next BIG Race Analysis is...
The 60th Hollywood Gold Cup
5th Race
NOTE: Since Yahoo purchased Geocities, they have effectively turned their back on their paying customers this weekend. You get this style for this event in this location, as a result.
1. Malek...Solis/124...Much like I expected Victory Gallop to romp in the Stephen Foster at Churchill 2 weeks ago, I expect that same performance here from this guy. With a slightly better late stretch trip he might have won the Dubai Cup. As it is, he finished a very game 2nd and has worked well since returning to the US. He fires well off the layoff and Mandella is a master conditioner who uses no excuses. He's also a 22% winner in layoffs of 90+ days. He'll be ready, and my guess is he stamps himself a force to be reckoned with the rest of the year, in this race.
2. Real Quiet...Bailey/124...Had every opportunity in the Mass Cap and sat on identical mile fractions from the Pimlico Special, but he weakened late to two horses that are most likely his superior at this stage. No disgrace there. Baffert has pounded the usual quick works out of him in the am but I think he's looking for a break. Due to the size of the field though, he's live for 2nd. Baffert just 12% this meet. But he is winning graded stakes at a 29% clip.
3. Budroyale...Gomez/124...Likely pacesetter could be very dangerous out there winging it if no one decides to come and get him. He finished ahead of Puerto Madero and 7 lengths behind Old Trieste in the Californian. Nobody was catching Old Trieste that day though. It would have been great to see if he could stretch that speed out 10 furlongs here, as it is though, why not hop aboard this guy? He loves this track and West is on fire here. He's 31% for the meet, has a poistive ROI for the year, and a winner of 4 of 10 when bringing back a winner.
4. Puerto Madero...Desormeaux/124...4-2-1-1 record at Hollywood speaks for itself. The level of competition he faces speaks well too. By the look of his works he might definitely be back from his injury. He looked like a sure-fire HOY candidate after the Donn but has succumbed to injury since then, compromising his efforts. He finished 12 behind Old Trieste in the Californian in his come backer. He's worked perfectly since though, and again, you have Mandella pulling the strings. Does he have enough left to come and get Budroyale?
Desormeaux and Mandella combining for 21% winners with a positive ROI.
Even though only 4 are going, it still is a competitive affair. Just not very bettable. The key here, is to pick something you are at least halfway comfortable with, that offers some trace of value.I'll go with Malek on top. He should be sitting on a BIG one here and I expect him to stalk and blow by with an 1/8 to go.
Puerto Madero gets the exacta finisher. I think he's talented enough and he should move up off of that Californian effort. He pushes through to just get 2nd.
I won't go any further. I can't bring myself to pick 3/4 of the field! :-)
1. Malek
2. Puerto Madero
Best of luck everyone!!!
©1999 Brad's BIG Race Analysis
