The next BIG Race Analysis is...
The 83rd Coaching Club American
Oaks
8th Race @ Belmont
NOTE: No, I didn't have the $520+ trifecta that two of my top three supplied in the Bowling Green. Unfortunately, Federal Trial let me down. Maybe he needs a little more exercise in the a.m. Or maybe I should have discovered that he didn't have enough before the race. There's always next time, hopefully.
1. Free Vacation...Kabel/121...I don't think she's quite suited for this. She'll like the distance, I think. But she just doesn't seem quite fast enough. Her only hope to get part is to come with a late rally after an above normal early pace to get the show money. Since this race isn't exactly overflowing with early speed, you can probably forget it.
2. On A Soapbox...Bailey/121...Here is a threat to Dreams Gallore. She has made only two starts this year though which lends to thoughts of soundness problems. Other than that, she looks great. I like to see lightly raced horses in a race like this. Especially those that have shown promise earlier and are making only their 2nd or 3rd start of the season. She'll be fresh. O'Callaghan winning a stout 26% this year and 20% when shipping in. Bailey is winning everything not nailed down at this meet. 29% and 24% for the year. Not bad. Here's something: Both grandfathers won the Belmont Stakes. Stage Door Johnny in 1968, and Conquistador Cielo in 1982. Let's not forget, the Belmont Stakes is run at 1 1/2. School's Out!
3. Strolling Belle...Smith/121...Might finally be coming around for Kimmel after some inconsistencies earlier in the year. She'll have to step it up here though as her only venture into graded territory wasn't all that successful. Kimmel winning 24% at the meet and 26% when bringing back a winner. He and Smith only 1 of 8 though. She does figure to like the distance which could make her a threat for exotics...on a career best effort that is.
4. Synchronized...Chavez/121...Doesn't appear in a position to threaten the top gun(s) here. Though impressive last time North of the border, she'll have to step way up here and contend with the longer distance as well. Something I'm not convinced she'll like. Some nice efforts but she's over her head.
5. Queen's Word...Luzzi/121...She was impressive last out at Delaware. But again, a much lower level. She had a decent performance in the Comely at Aqueduct on April 24. In that race she circled the field on the turn and finished a decent 5th, beaten only 4 lengths. Still, it looks as if she'll have to step up and tackle not only the extra distance, but extra weight as well. Arnold winning 20% for the year with a positive ROI, but a dismal 9% in graded stakes overall. Your call.
6. Dreams Gallore...Albarado/121...Certainly the class and expected odds-on favorite. She did nothing wrong in the Mother Goose while drawing off by 7. She'll relish the distance I'm guessing, so what would have been the only possible barrier should be on her side. Asmussen having a nice year winning 22%. He and Albarado teaming up for 24% in the circle. Last three strong efforts at 1 1/8. She's ready to go the extra 3/8. Simply much the best here.
7. Denver Zephyr...Samyn/121...Has shown some early ability. She's going to want no part of 1 1/2 though. Picking up 11 pounds and a few conditions. No thanks.
8. Undermine...Melancon/121...Gets a shot of stamina from Dam-sire Assert who has produced exceptional distance runners. Huffman and Melancon combining for 36% and 71% in-the-money from 36 starts. This could be a price play for the tri.
9. Gracious Plenty...Velasquez/121...The only one of these to travel 1 1/2 so far and she certainly is bred for it. This will be her first time on US dirt, but her performance last out at Ascot at this distance should get her consideration alone. Hennig not particularly impressive in his first shot with a new horse. But he and Velasquez winning 30% from 49 starts. Definite exotic threat.
I can't see Dreams Gallore faltering here. She's going to like the distance and has faced much tougher than these. (Silverbulletday comes to mind)On A Soapboxshould be poised to take that step up. I'm counting on Bailey to at least get her home 2nd, maybe 3rd.
Gracious Plenty will be dangerous first off the boat here. Her distance experience against similar in the UK can only help her.
UNDERMINE or STROLLING BELLE to round it all out.
1. Dream's Gallore
2. On A Soapbox
3. Gracious Plenty
Best of luck everyone!!!
RESULTS:
8TH Belmont 83rd CCA OAKS 7/24/99 2:29 1/5
2 ON A SOAPBOX 121 BAILEY J D 11.80 3.20 2.10
6 DREAMS GALLORE 121 ALBARADO R 2.30 2.10
3 STROLLING BELLE 121 SMITH M E 2.10
$2 EXACTA 2-6 PAID $23.20
$2 TRIFECTA 2-6-3 PAID $92.50
©1999 Brad's BIG Race Analysis
