Wednesday, February 13th, 2002.
(By Murray Mandryk / Regina Leader Post)
Forget what you've been hearing about the polls.
If the New Democrats were doing as well as they are spinning (a 10-to-12-percentage point lead, provincewide) don't you think that Premier Lorne Calvert would be seriously considering calling an election now? Are there any signs (i.e.: NDP nominations) suggesting an election is imminent?
That said, is there any sign -- beyond its own hype -- that the Saskatchewan Party is about to make a major breakthrough in the cities? Lesser-known NDP candidates all managed to hold on to or even improve the party's popular vote in the seats previously held by Dwain Lingenfelter, Janice MacKinnon and Roy Romanow in the last three byelections.
Nevertheless, the Saskatchewan Party also saw its popular vote increase in these inner city byelections, which could translate into success in some suburban seats.
Conversely, New Democrats think economic activity on the northern forest fringe could result in them regaining some critical rural seats.
Thus, the purpose of today's column:
Forget the spin you might be hearing from both sides about the polls and who's leading where.
Give the Saskatchewan Party about 23 safe seats and give the NDP about 23 safe seats. (In fact, if you look at the 1999 election results, there was a 12-percentage-point-or-more spread in about 46 of the province's 58 ridings. These 46 seats were roughly evenly divided between the two parties.)
That leaves a dozen seats --almost all of which were decided by less than a dozen percentage points in 1999 -- that will determine who our next provincial government will be.
One important caveat, however: There's a real chance we will have new boundaries before the next election. However, that's not the certainty it once was.
Strategically speaking, there would not be much political advantage to the New Democrats in rejigging the boundaries, unless they decided to eliminate three or four (read rural) seats in the assembly. The problem is, there may not be enough time to draw the boundaries and pass the legislation before a 2003 election. Moreover, it also might incite a cynical backlash.
So, assuming for today that the boundaries remain as they are, here are the dozen seats we should be watching:
Saskatoon Southeast: The closest race in 1999 was decided by 62 votes, or less than half a percentage point. Incumbent Pat Lorje has since been promoted to cabinet, but this may be a case where a higher profile doesn't much help the outspoken minister. Talk is that Grant Karwacki (David's brother) will run for the Liberals again, although that is not a certainty.
Regina-Wascana Plains: Former cabinet minister Doreen Hamilton won by barely 1.3 per cent of the vote in the last election and here's the real kicker -- both second-place Saskatchewan Party candidate Dan Thibault and third place Liberal Adam Niesner Jr. are now with the Saskatchewan Party. In fact, the Saskatchewan Party's biggest problem may be the nomination. Rumour has it that Thibault, Niesner and former Canadian Alliance federal candidate James Rybchuk are all interested.
Saskatoon Meewasin: This may be the most interesting race in the province as first-term NDP backbencher Carolyn Jones is expected to battle Liberal leader David Karwacki and the Saskatchewan Party's Ken Cheveldayoff. Will the NDP benefit from a vote split?
Regina South: New Energy Minister Andrew Thomson won by nearly 11 per cent, but largely because of Liberal/ Saskatchewan Party vote splitting. School trustee Debbie Ward (after flirting with the Saskatchewan Party) will run here for the Liberals. Possibly Pemmican Pearl herself, Terri Harris, will again run for the Saskatchewan Party. More vote splitting?
Saskatoon Northwest: We know former Liberal leader Jim Melenchuk (who won by two per cent in 1999) won't be running here as a Liberal, but will he run as a New Democrat? Will he run at all? And can any NDP candidate beat former Saskatoon man of the year Ted Merriman if he runs for the Saskatchewan Party? Like the other four aforementioned urban seats, this is one the Saskatchewan Party desperately needs to win to show it is the only alternative to the NDP.
Melville: Ron Osika won as a Liberal by 16.4 per cent in 1999, but Osika won't be running as a Liberal . . . or, likely, at all. That puts a critical rural seat up for grabs.
North Battleford: Bad water has made the NDP unpopular. The Saskatchewan Party finished a distant third in 1999. That means Liberal incumbent Jack Hillson has a good shot. Might he and any other successful Liberals again hold the balance of power?
Yorkton and Meadow Lake: High profile NDP cabinet ministers Clay Serby and Maynard Sonntag won these two seats by 4.6 and 5.3 per cent respectively. The Saskatchewan Party badly needs these ridings, but so does the NDP . . . as is apparent from the amount of government money now being pumped into these ridings. ($55 million into Meadow Lake's $220 million oriented strand board plant and $15 million into Yorkton's Premium Brand packing plant.)
Shellbrook-Spiritwood, Saskatchewan Rivers, Carrot River Valley: All of these seats were won by the Saskatchewan Party in 1999, all by less than 12 percentage points. (4.5 per cent, 2.3 per cent, and 11 per cent, respectively.) The NDP wants all of the northern forest fringe back and will point to economic development (the $100 million Big River sawmill, the $180 million OSB plant at Hudson Bay and the $27 million Wapaweeka sawmill expansion) as reasons why that should happen.
