Crime is going to grow, as unemployment increases. Technological development is going to slow (except in weaponry, since military budgets are going to balloon enormously), with fewer new models of computers, automobiles, or camcorders.
Civil liberties are going to be eroded far more, with governments taking a far bigger role in both our personal lives, and economies in general.
This is where my crystal ball gets cloudy. How all this gloom will end, or exactly how deep it will become, is hidden from me. A lot depends on how well people respond to these problems, and if there are countries willing to take the hard medicine to fix things. The United States and Britain served this role in World War II, but it isn’t at all clear they will have the political resolve, or economic resources to do so again.
The global institutions that have come into place over the last 100 years will be sorely tested, and shall prove themselves incapable of dealing with the utter chaos that results from failed states and economic destitution.
The stable nations which remain will need to decide if they want to embark on a new era of colonialism, where they take it upon themselves to impose order in the vast regions of anarchy, or to pull in on themselves and usher in a de-facto policy of parochialism, where nations simply try to keep problems from crossing their borders rather than stamping it out at it’s roots.
The VERY short term (2nd half of 2002 and early 2003)
Economics
Central banks will keep interest rates low, and will lower them further
Real estate market will start to slow down in America and Europe. Residential homes will start to lose value.
The corporate bond market will freeze up, and securitized mortgages will become discounted
Many US and European banks will start to report greater losses on loans, and need to take bigger reserves
The dollar will lose value against Yen and Euro
Brazil‘s currency (the Real) will continue to decline in value, triggering a credit crunch and default on government debt by mid 2003.
European and American firms that invested in Latin America will have to take much bigger write-offs. Look to banks and manufacturers to take big hits.
Argentine Peso will continue to decline, and the country will experience an even greater economic contraction.
South America(‘s) currency problems will cause a general pull back of money from emerging markets. South African Rand, Turkish lira, and other currencies will be severely hit.
The Japanese government will engineer yet another massive bailout of their banks in late 2002 when many of them report that the stocks in their portfolios have declined even more, meaning that they don’t have enough reserves to cover bad loans.
There will be several more large American and European companies that will have shocking restatements of earnings as they have to take into account losses on investments and lower the valuations of goodwill.
Growth in the US and Europe will be lower than even the newly lowered estimates. Growth for 2002 will be less than 2% officially, and will likely be revised to 1% or less sometime in 2003. The third quarter of 2002 will be flat, and 4th quarter will have a slight contraction
Many US companies will meet earnings expectations in 3rd quarter, but lower expectations for the 4th. This will be an on-going trend. Companies will largely meet expectations at each reporting period, but then lower their predictions for future quarters, which means they are meeting a continually lowered bar.
US unemployment will hit 7% by end of 2002 and 7.5% by mid 2003
Geo-politics
More fighting will occur between warlords in Afghanistan, and make the country even more ungovernable.
More radical Muslim terrorism will take place in both Pakistan and India, further inflaming tensions. This could possibly lead to war by mid 2003, but not likely. For war, another major attack like Delhi Parliament massacre is required.
Elections in India’s Gujurat and Kashmir states will result in communal violence. More Hindu mobs will attack Muslim minorities.
Pakistan’s government will become highly unstable as General Musharaf increasingly loses support from both moderate and radical groups. He will feel pressure to either support radical causes against India, or will be seen as vulnerable by other military persons for a possible coup or assassination. He will lose support of moderates because of his failure to allow democracy and free elections. This could be another Anwar Saddat (who was assassinated by radicals) in the making.
Israel will suffer more suicide bombings, and will continue to occupy Palestinian areas to maintain security. Conflict will slowly turn even more Arab sentiment against the west, and make it harder for Arab governments to support the US.
The United States will attempt some form of invasion of Iraq before mid 2003.This will be necessary to avoid a loss of face. With all the talk about a commitment to regime change, the United States will feel compelled to show they mean business. US policy makers will find it unbearable to let Saddam sit in power for another year, reaping the admiration of Arab street for successfully defying America.
There is a high probability of one or more terrorist attacks in western Europe or USA by mid 2003. Existing terror cells will want to act before they get caught. This will cause the west to come down even harder on middle-eastern immigrants, and the countries they come from, which will create even more hostility towards the west and generate new recruits.
New acts of fanatic Muslim terror in the west will solidify support for Israel all the more, making it possible for Israel to utilize even more aggressive countermeasures against the insurgent Palestinians. This will in turn fuel more hostility between Muslims and the west.
American politics
Democrats will gain control of the House and keep control of Senate at the mid-term elections in November 2002. This will result from worsening economy and further lack of big successes in war on terror, which will hurt Republicans.
George Bush’s popularity will slowly decline as economy worsens, and the War on Terrorism doesn’t appear to be making any visible progress.
Both Federal and State budget deficits will grow dramatically from increased spending for economic stimulus (military, bail-outs, welfare, unemployment insurance, etc) and a further decline in tax revenues.
There will be increasingly stepped up prosecution of businessmen as the economy worsens. More business regulations will be passed as voters become more disgusted with business in general.
Technology
There will be very little uptake on new wireless data services. Next generation 3G wireless roll-outs will be further delayed due to technical difficulties and financing issues.
Digital cable won’t expand that significantly.
Subscriptions of broadband residential Internet services will continue to slowly grow. Don’t expect dramatic uptake by end of 2003.
The long term
Economics
There is just no easy way to come out of a massively inflated bubble. The ‘90s experienced a break-neck economic expansion that will go down in history as one of the great manias of all time. As a consequence, the stock markets, and over-all economies, will have to work off the excesses and approach realistic valuations again. Unfortunately, “realistic” valuations are much lower than most people realize. The amazing growth some companies saw was more of a mirage, and assets became priced at a level assuming such double digit annual growth could continue. Debt levels, of both individuals and companies, is far too high to be sustained.
Expect the Dow to drop to 3000 (or lower) and the Nasdaq to 500. Property values are going to come down dramatically as well, in many countries. Most homes will at best be worth half their current valuations. Moreover, when we hit bottom, there won’t be any quick bounce to the stratosphere again. This is going to take us 10 years, at least, to have a modest recovery. But don’t expect asset values to approach their previous highs for much longer still.
Economic retrenchment will cause companies to cut-back investment and expenditures, leading to massive lay-offs. American unemployment will reach 7.5% by the end of 2003, and reach at least 10% by 2005. The lay-offs, and squeeze of corporate profits, will result in a massive credit squeeze, as banks and investors try to digest the huge backlog of bad loans and bonds they have gorged on.
We will face some spectacular financial institution collapses (keep your eyes on J.P. Morgan, Citi Group, Fanny Mae, and Sally Mae), as the risk management systems these firms developed turn out to be based on entirely erroneous assumptions.
Western economies will begin to experience the same deflationary environment as Japan has already fallen into, with asset prices, and values, constantly dropping. This will just start to become apparent in 2003, and will pick up pace over the next couple of years.
The US dollar will initially lose value against the Yen and Euro, as foreign investors become worried about the growing recession and pull their money out of the country. However, the dollar will wind up appreciating against most other currencies in the end (after 2003) as it becomes obvious that every other economies is in even worse condition than America. The dollar will be viewed as the currency of choice by people all over the world. The Euro, in particular, will be severely stressed, and lose much value, as the member nations demand the rules governing the currency union become increasingly watered down as their economies get worse.
Even as the dollar increases relative value against other currencies, however, it will be losing value versus Gold. Gold will be appreciate in value immensely.
The United States will be experiencing a false deflationary environment. For although the value of goods and products seem to be decreasing (i.e. the dollar bill can buy more than it used to), the value of the dollar will actually be decreasing when compared to gold, and it’s absolute income power. Although it might only cost $0.50 for a loaf of bred instead of $1.00, it will be harder to earn that $0.50 than it did to earn $1.00 when the bred was more expensive. In other words, the increase of value in the dollar will not keep up with the decrease in earnings (i.e. people will be earning less money for the same work).
The Euro will come apart at the seems, and most Euro member nations will wind up going back to their original currencies. As economic problems become worse, the countries that make up the Euro will want to pursue different economic policies, and the Euro will suffer as a result. Conflict will arise between the governments trying to maintain fiscal austerity, and those on spending binges. The (relatively) responsible governments will be compelled to either force the expulsion of profligate nations, or withdraw from the Euro themselves. Regardless, the Euro will be shunned by the markets, and drop dramatically in value which will ultimately force all nations to abandon it. This final result may not happen till 2012 or beyond.
This global economic decline is not going to be in an entirely straight line. Governments and central banks will continue to do their level best to prevent the recession. Central Bankers will keep interest rates low, and drop them even more as 2003 progresses. This will continue to keep the consumption engine somewhat primed. But these expansionary measures will slowly lose steam and effectiveness as over-all debt levels simply become too high. Even with 0% interest on loans, people are only able to handle so much debt.
Governments will begin increasing deficit spending on construction projects, and other stimulus efforts. There will be big undertakings for roads, rail systems, etc. And most of the environmental concerns will evaporate, as the body politic becomes far more concerned with jobs than spotted owls. Nevertheless, all this stimulus will only serve to create huge public debt, and eventually (by 2005 or 2006) cause inflation, since they will necessarily have to print money to pay for these projects.
The result of various government attempts to help the economy, will only serve to prolong the recession, and make things worse. In the short, run, however, there will be a much slower rate of decline, and periodic stock market rallies when some new statistics make it look like things are picking up.
As bad as things become in developed countries, life will be far worse in the developing world. Emerging market stock exchanges will collapse, and so will most of their currencies. Investors will flee nearly all emerging markets due to the political uncertainty and general social instability that will occur.
The IMF will virtually cease to exist, as it’s bail-outs become increasingly futile (with economies collapsing anyway), and the donor nations refuse to keep throwing good money after bad. It will also become impossible for developed nations to justify contributing money to the IMF when their own economies are in dire straights.
International trade will be hard pressed. Trade will certainly continue, but it will decrease as demand decreases world-wide. Poor economies will also lead to increasing trade friction, as nations try to protect their own industries from cheap imports. The United States and Europe will become far more protectionist, and will simply disregard trade agreements that have been signed. There will be no progress on the development of new trade accords.
Geo-politics
Many of the problems that will come to fore in geo-politics over the next several years will be as a consequence of the global economic malaise. It is no coincidence that many of the world’s greatest wars, and conflicts, also occurred during great economic hardship.
A great many governments will face severe political crisis as their populations become increasingly angry with their inabilities to solve the economic problems. Radical (authoritarian) leaders, of various stripes, will become far more attractive. These anti-establishment leaders will be particularly appealing in the third world, where the absolute social chaos leads many people to agree that an iron hand is the only solution. But even in developed nations, it is the activist, and commanding, politicians that will gain traction. Laissez-faire adherents, who talk about letting problems work themselves out will be a laughingstock.
The failed state will become far more commonplace over the next decade, particularly in the third world. Disenchantment with existing leaders will lead to a collapse in civil obedience, and numerous groups will attempt to gain power through the muzzle of a gun. Since the developed world will be so engrossed in their own problems, it will have scant energy to direct in helping pick sides, and ensuring that any one warring faction can consolidate power and win. Indonesia, Bolivia, Venezuela, Columbia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Congo are just a handful of likely candidates to fall into disarray as their economies (or what’s left of them) fall into the abyss.
As a consequence of the growing number of failed states, there will be large power vacuums that emerge in Africa, Asia, and South America. These swaths of ungoverned territories will become havens for all manner of destabilizing activities, such as drugs, arms, and slavery. Neighbouring countries will feel both tempted, and compelled, to seize some of the territory in order to prevent problems from spilling into their own borders, and take advantage of resources. Developed nations will wind up getting drawn into some of these failed states in attempts to find terrorists, and other wanted scoundrels.
Terrorism will become an increasingly difficult problem. Inter-governmental cooperation will almost evaporate in the “War on Terror”, particular in relation to third world nations. This lack of cooperation, coupled with a greater number of failed states, will provide an ideal staging ground for terrorists to plan and group. The worsening economic hardship in Muslim nations will also make it easier than ever to gain recruits. It will also be even easier to find adherents, and support, in the developed world since there will be many disenchanted unemployed there too.
There will inevitably be many more terrorist actions occurring in the developed world, largely (but not exclusively) by Muslim extremists. The industrialized nations will increase security, and make movements and transactions more difficult, but the increasing instability throughout the world will make terrorism easier to carry out, on balance. This is because deadly weapons will be easier to obtain (e.g. starving Russian soldiers will have no problem selling nuclear materials), and there will be better bases of operation (e.g. failed states, and governments that refuse to cooperate with the developed world).
Terrorism, and communal violence, will become the preferred means of conflict. Israel, India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan will increasingly face more fratricidal violence, and terrorist attacks. Suicide bombings, and even more dramatic attacks, will become more common in Israel, and India. Hindu mobs will increasingly slaughter the Muslim minority throughout India.
It’s highly likely that India and Pakistan will go to war (since growing terrorism and Hindu attacks on Muslims will get increasingly worse), and use nuclear weapons, by 2006. This will mean the end of Pakistan as a nation in any form. India may hang together as a state, but see even more decentralizing and regionalism.
Terrorism won’t be the exclusive province of Muslims, however. An increasing interest in fringe groups, of all sorts, will lead people in developed countries to attack their own governments through terrorist actions. However, this will be of a smaller scale than the foreign terror groups which can develop strategies and bases abroad without interference.
In the short term, Europe and the United States will increasingly argue over how to approach problems in the Middle-East and elsewhere. Trade friction will also make it more difficult for Europeans and Americans to see eye-to-eye, since each party will feel it necessary to protect their native industries from the imports of the other. Oddly, however, Europe and America will wind up being drawn closer together as global unrest increases, and security needs grow. A good terrorist attack or two will do wonders at bringing these brothers together.
Some east European nations may give rise to brutish dictators that decide to push their way around and seize land from nearby countries. Think of a Russia or Ukraine seizing land in Belarus, Moldova, or Kazakhstan. Such a regime might not be hesitant to threaten the use of nuclear weapons so as to keep the meddling westerners off their backs. This will make western Europeans much more amenable to working with America.
Although the outlook is mainly for a massive increase in low-level conflicts of the terrorist and civil war variety, there is the possibility for a possible traditional conflict or two. India and Pakistan are prime candidates (as mentioned earlier), but so too are conflicts between China and any number of South-East Asian nations. In fact, China could possibly cause quite a bit of trouble over the next 10 years, as it’s economic boom comes to an end, and civil unrest (from unemployed workers) upsets the political equilibrium. The Chinese government will clamp down hard on civilian opposition, and Tiananmen Square type incidents will happen again. Of particular concern will be how the Chinese government deals with Hong Kong, which may start to become very upset with it’s governor, and inept response to the financial collapse. Will the Chinese government allow elections and a more open government in Hong Kong? Likely not. Instead they will resort to repression, and the distinction between Hong Kong and the mainland will disappear.
Unrest in China will lead to problems with Taiwan, since the Chinese government will find it problematic to have an example of independence for all its own disgruntled masses to look at (we wouldn’t want to give Hong Kong or other provinces any bad ideas). There will be increasingly nasty rhetoric, and if it looks as if the US is too occupied with it’s own problems, it’s entirely possible China could invade. At this point I don’t believe the Chinese government has any plans to do this, but given a domestic economic collapse, and a pacification of Hong Kong, they might feel they have little choice.
Africa is going to descend into even more chaos, as most of the sub-Saharan nations increasingly split on ethnic divisions, and civil war. Somalia will become more of a pattern for the continent. Kenya and Zimbabwe will fracture beyond repair now that their institutions have been eroded from years of corruption and cronyism. Both nations will implode over the next several years. South Africa will experience a severe economic decline as investment almost completely dries up. The nation is becoming increasingly corrupt, and the ANC’s total grip on power is breeding corruption and inefficiency. President Mbeki will start to look a lot more like Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe. Recent moves to nationalize resources further illustrate how South Africa’s government is slowly going down the path of stagnation seen by other liberated African nations. It may have taken Mugabe 20 years to ruin Zimbabwe, but it won’t take nearly so long for the collapse of South Africa, since the entire global environment is in such a worse state of affairs.
Latin America will similarly face economic collapse. Argentina will not pull itself out of trouble any time soon, and will be stuck with ineffective governments for years to come. Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, Venezuela, Peru and Columbia will all wind up defaulting on their debts and suffer economic catastrophe. I expect there to be coups, weak minority governments, and massive civil unrest throughout much of Latin America. There will most likely be the resumption of petty border conflicts between some of these nations, as guerilla groups cross borders, and get help from neighbours (Venezuela’s support of Columbian rebels could be the beginning)./li>
The United Nations will pretty much ceases to exist by 2010. It’s absolute inability to confront terrorism and a growing number of failed states will make it even more irrelevant than it already is. What will finally drive the stake through the UN’s heart is the Global economic recession which will cause the developed nations to dramatically cut back on contributions. There may still be something called the UN, but it’s bureaucracy will be gutted, and it will have very little voice in anything.
A new era of de-facto colonialism will slowly evolve as developed nations feel compelled to create order in some of the most critical regions that have descended into anarchy. With vast regions of continents being run by petty warlords, developed nations will feel the need to establish outposts, or bases, to protect shipping and trade that may pass through the area. These little outposts will evolve into colonies, as it becomes critical to control a little more of the surrounding territory to maintain base security. In some instances the political motivation may be to instill a little order for humanitarian reasons (e.g. distributing food to relieve starvation). But the result will be that developed nations begin administering more territories outside of their own borders, for many years.
The European Union will experience extreme stress, and either become a far looser organization or disband altogether. The Euro currency, in particular, will create a crisis as it collapses under the weight of conflicts between profligate and (relative) austere member government policies. The hostility that will be created between nations, blaming one another for the failure of the currency, will be immense. This resulting hostility may even be enough to break apart the entire European Union, but it may still be able to hang together as a looser organization. Clearly, the countries that remain out of the Euro will suffer the least pain, but no country will be immune to the global currency crisis that will ensue.
American politics
The Democrats will gain control of both houses of congress, and the presidency, for most of the next 10 years. This is largely because of the deep recession, which will make their policies of wealth redistribution and stimulus much more appealing.
The Republicans that survive in politics will be the ones that are willing to spend on pork like never before (i.e. creating jobs), and playing the defense hawk. The risky new world we are entering, with lots of wars and terrorism, will lend itself nicely to war hawks who want a strong military and a tough line of foreign enemies.
Increasing terrorism will cause more laws to be passed which limit civil rights. A variety of security measures requiring frequent identity checks will become a normal part of life. It’s possible that national identity cards and finger print databases might be created with just one or two more big terrorist attacks on the United States.
Immigration will reach ones of its lowest ebbs over the next 10 years. This will be due to both the poor economy (i.e. no jobs) and the extra hurdles and requirements that are made for newcomers.
Technology
Stand-alone personal video recorders (like Tivo) will disappear, (AND THE?) technology will become standard part of digital set-top boxes (for cable and satellite feeds).
There will be no difference between cameras and camcorders within 10 years. The only thing sold will pretty much be a full motion video camera that can do megapixel still photos as well.
There will be very little need for wires to connect devices, and computers, together within 5 years. Everything from camcorders to PCs and Palm Pilots will come with built-in wireless cards as a standard features. These built-in wireless cards will not be part of a cell-based network, but will work more like cordless home telephones. A wide array of wireless Internet hubs will slowly grow in an ad-hoc way at coffee shops, airport lounges, etc. There will be a standard, secure way, for connecting to these ad-hoc wireless internet hubs which automatically transfers some credits to the internet hub owner’s account.
There will be no such thing as a “phone” company anymore. All communications will just be IP packets over the Internet, and voice conversations will simply be part of that digitized stream. Instead of “phone” companies, there will only be data access providers. There will be no need to choose a specific provider anymore. Roaming will be an automated process, that shows you the available “providers” where you are, and the price for each one. Your provider of the moment could be a coffee shop, or a big network provider that put up an antennae in a forest.
Satellite communication will continue to be a niche market in unreachable areas for decades. The costs will come down for satellite video feeds, but they will not fall as fast as Internet data transmission costs, making the terrestrial systems far more appealing.
Linux will gain more and more traction in the market as companies, and users, try and cut costs even more. Economic downturn will mean that labor becomes cheaper (relatively) to technology, which means that companies won’t mind having staff spend more time fiddling with half-baked Linux stuff than better, but pricier, off-the-shelf offerings.
Microsoft will be forced to sell products at lower prices to prevent customers from going to freeware/OpenSource alternatives. Microsoft products may be better, but as expertise becomes cheaper with high unemployment, and a bad economy, companies are less sensitive about labor costs than up-front payments. Just as Linux products and technologies are very popular in developing countries, where they have little hard currency, we will see similar situations develop in developed nations.
Next Generation 3G wireless will never take off as it is. However, the existing wireless networks will continue to evolve and be slowly expanded so that they are doing pretty much the same kinds of data things 3G was intended for by 2007 to 2009. Wireless voice and data will indeed change the way we behave, but it will be a very slow and gradual thing, as costs come down and technology improves.
The PC platform will have far more staying power than anyone envisioned. Portable devices still won’t have come close to replacing PCs by 2004. Rather than the set-top box, or the TV, supplanting the TV, it might be the other way around. Continually improving graphics quality and video streaming, on PCs, will make them the ideal entertainment center. The biggest hindrance to using the PC as the home entertainment unit is really just location and screen size. This, however, will eventually be solved by dual monitor hook-ups, cheap high-quality displays, and wireless connections. Users will be able to have a PC in the bedroom, and watch movies it is playing from a large flat panel display they hang in the living room. A little wireless remote control will allow them to send commands to their PC in the bedroom.
Gasoline-based combustion engines will still be the primary form of vehicular transportation in 2010. Hybrids, that use combustion engines to power electric engines, may have a good chunk of the market, but fuel cells, and other “clean” technologies won’t have hit their stride yet. It will likely be another 30 years before fuel cells, or something else, becomes cheap enough for the mass market. A big part of what will slow down this development is the world-wide recession, which will cause huge cuts in investment. Also, a major economic downturn means that fewer people can afford cars anyway, so there is less political pressure to force the use of electric cars.
Air transportation will still take place primarily by subsonic jets, like today, for the next 10 years. Boeing will never realize their vision of the Sonic Cruiser. It will take another 25 to 30 years before travel at near the speed of sound becomes economical. In the meantime, traditional jets will become much more efficient. In general, the next 10 years will not see major advances in civilian aeronautics transportation since the global recession will reduce travel demand and hurt airlines and manufacturers alike. Investments will grind to a halt, and airlines will keep flying their old buckets as long as feasibly possible. The only upgrades and new purchases will be for aircraft that are far more efficient, and less costly to operate and maintain.
Medical technologies will continue to develop, but not as commercially as in the previous 20 years. Economic problems will limit consumer ability to pay for products. Nevertheless, some incremental developments will still occur. Cloning technology will get much better, so that any animal can be easily replicated. Animal cloning will become relatively commonplace by 2010. Almost all animal herds in the developed world, and plants, will be clones. This is far more efficient than breading, where there are risks the offspring aren’t quite as productive.
Humans will inevitably be cloned once the technology becomes so well understood, and developed, for animals. It will prove impossible to prevent people from using this wide-spread technology. However, cloned humans will be quite a rarity even in 20 years, with most human cloning being done for producing cells and organs for transplant (but we won’t have test-tube grown organs even by 2020).
Hebei, Shanxi, Chahar, Pingyuan, Suiyuan, Beijing, and Tianjin
Northeast China Area Songjiang, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Liaodong, Liaoxi, Rehe, Lüshun-Dalian, Shenyang, Benxi, Anshan, and Fushun Wu: Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Anhui,
Min: Fujian
Chu: Shandong, Shanghai, and Nanjing
Zhejiang
Central and South China Area Hubei, Hunan, Henan, , Guangdong, Guangdong, and Hankou Lin Biao
Northwest Area Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Xi'an
Southwest Area Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Xikang, and Chongqing
Guangxi Zhuang
Inner Mongolia
Ningxia Hui
Xinjiang Uighur
Tibet
All in all, there are around 7.9 billion people alive in 2034. Of these 1.8 billion can be said to be internationalists or closely aligned.
Europe
Europe is cold, nationalist and forlorn. After the failure of the EU, the climate changes and the massive brain and capital drain to the south a large portion of the remaining Europeans feel cheated, left out or angry. At the same time many of the major european cities are internationalist strongholds. The rift is intense and contributes to a paranoid climate.
The British Isles are struggling against the climate; regular storms devastate the countryside. At the same time they are fairly well aligned with the internationalists politically and have extensive biotech applications (the London Tent was the most famous one).
France, the low countries and Central Europe remain the most influential nations of Europe and among the strongest voices in international national politics. They are divided when it comes to internationalism; towards the majority of the population the governments show a populist-nationalist attitude, while at the same time giving internationalist enclaves tax breaks and other benefits. This hypocricy as well as the many social problems caused by the economic transformations have led to a fertile ground for the emergence of terrorist groups.
Sweden is a snowy isolationist nation, having largely closed its borders for internationalism in order to preserve what was considered important swedish values and social systems. It is mildly racist and unlike Canada refuses to consider that it will not persist forever unless the ice age ends.
Southern Europe is experiencing a limited renaissance. Most of the capital and brainpower moved further south, enough stayed around the mediterranean. While the Vatican remains staunchly nationalist, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece has very much adapted to the internationalist world.
Russia had bad luck. When the economy thanks to internationalisation had begun to recover, the climate shifted. The already severe brain drain intensified, and left Russia impoverished and isolated. Conditions in Siberia are becoming so severe that climate refugees are invading both China and european Russia, causing unrest and local overcrowding problems. Nationalism is very strong, and many worrying militant groups are gaining in strength.
Africa
Africa has developed significantly from the 20th century, although the continent is far behind the rest of the world in prosperity, peace and stability. Still, it is what Asia was during the 1960-80's and South America during the 1980's-2010's - it is quickly taking its place in the world.
Northern Africa is experiencing a renaissance not seen since the days of the Islamic conquest. The changed climate has brought rain to western and northern africa, climate refugees have contributed capital, skilled workforces and an internationalist atmosphere that serves to attract other internationalists. While some regions like Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia are far ahead of the others in development, Mali, Senegal and (to some people's surprise) Mauretania are doing quite well. Internationalist enclaves are sprouting everywhere, infrastructure is being developed and the countryside is greening thanks to the climate and biotechnology.
Another prosperous area is the eastern coast, from Somalia, Kenya down to Tanzania. Especially Mogadishu has jumped into the 21st century with vigor, and Nairobi and Dar es Salaam are not far behind. The developments in biotech on Soqotra and in Saudi Arabia create a cooridor of "green" regions.
Egypt and some other regions of eastern Africa has instead turned their backs on the world, becoming isolationist theocracies or dictatorships of little interest to the internationalists. The same goes for the continuing chaos in the interior of the continent, where (except for a few small enclaves) much of the internaltional community has given up or lost interest in the various wars, insurrections and disasters. The deep wounds caused by the AIDS epidemic and decades of local wars are hard to handle, despite efforts in spreading microfactories, microfarming and wireless net-education from the UN and interested aid agencies. The old conflicts, remaining bands of marauders and flare-ups of new epidemics is a constant worry for the eastern and northern regions.
A noticeable number of the small island states surrounding Africa such as the Seychelles, Sao Tomé and Malta have become internationalist strongholds.
South America
South America took the step into the developed world at roughly the same time the internationalist revolution occured. The combination of prosperity and widespread alternative networks instead of relying on governments made the continent a natural source of many first generation internationalists.
North America
The US never accepted the idea that national states were becoming irrelevant. A strong current of nationalism dominates the US, while at the same time the differences between regions and in internationalisation are more extreme than anywhere else. California, Florida, many major cities and neighbourhoods have become direct internationalist havens, while large parts of the midwest now are ultra-conservative and dominated by the Brothers of the Land.
Canada is adapting to the cold. The realisation that the nation will not last (at least not in its current form) forever as the Ice Age continues has led to a widespread sobering but also division. Many people have chosen to move south or become internationalists, while others remain and try to find ways of maintaining the region against the encroaching snow. Terraformers and people promoting union with the US are common.
Mexico, the Caribbean and parts of Latin America have become internationalist havens. The Caribbean is almost the heartland of the old digital banks, cryptohavens and early libertarian islands, although by now the second generation internationalists have totally lost any allegiance to such local geography.
Asia
China's devastating collapse has changed the politics of the region. At the time, India and Indonesia were weakened by the internal struggles between regions and internationalists-nationalists and Japan found itself lagging in the move towards an international society. In the wake of these changes Asia has become a tremendously diverse and complex place, with vast differences in wealth, politicial stability, ideology, technology and style from region to region.
China remains a headache. The internal turmoil tends to spill over into neighbouring regions. Massive refugee streams forced Vietnam and Korea to close their borders, and various terrorists or organised crime networks linked to China plague much of eastern asia. Overall the international community prefers to have as little to do with the internal chaos as possible, with the exception of enclaves and "nice" ministates such as Guanzhou.
Indonesia divided relatively peacefully into a number of independent states, creating a diverse region with everything from total internationalism to theocracy side by side. While relatively prosperous, there are many sources of friction between the Indonesian nations.
Japan had a hard time adopting to the international paradigm, instead largely retreating to stability, structure and nationalism. A large part of the youth and most expansive industry left for internationalism, creating a noticeable "hole" in society.
India was the economic wonder of the 2010's, but suffered enormous tensions between regions and nationalists-internationalists. In the Reform War the sub-continent split in all but name, becoming yet another heterogenous and chaotic megaregion.
The Arab world (and Israel) has retained its stability better, largely retreating into nationalism and a return to religious (or environmental) values but with a small and influential minority extending into the international world. Especially Saudi Arabia has changed tremendously due to the introduction of biotechnology on a large scale and the changed needs for petroleum. Many regions have suffered massive brain drain (such as Israel) as fundamentalism spread, creating local nearly fortified academic townships or driving people to the internationalist enclaves.
The Pacific
Australia and New Zeeland adapted relatively well to the changed needs of the new economy, attracting much internationalist investors suspicious of the long-term stability of the more nationalist US. A minor conflict with fundamentalists from Irian Jaya may be brewing.
The Pacific islands are booming, as internationalists, rich climate refugees and warmth-seeking northerners flock to them. While the strain from the increasing population is a major problem, the spread of biotech islands and ecological repair (as well as the generous sources of income) help them to cope. Many atolls have become internationalist havens, and there are many artificial islands cruising the currents. In order to deter piracy (especially from desperate Chinese refugees) the US Pacific fleet patrols the ocean, officially to maintain US interests but in practice leased by the internationalists.
WORLD OVERVIEW
Neon Twilight is a strange and sinister world set in the near-future of 2038, when biotechnology has run amok, city-states have re-emerged within vast confederations, the state has become very strong, and ethnic clans span the world. It's an ugly cyberpunk dystopia peppered with doses of hi-tek lo-life amidst the junkyards of the elites.
Out of a blighted landscape scarred by racial infighting and radical political agendas emerged a new world of bureaucratic nightmare and parasitic biotechnology. The frightening prospect of global corporate domination was replaced by an even more terrifying prospect of global disintegration. The forces which had bound the world ever-more-closer together were suddenly shattered by Pacific war and network chaos. It took nearly fifteen years of Reconstruction to restore the world to a semblance of normality again, but alas the days of biological security and economic prosperity have been irrevocably snatched away. Now it is time for a new breed of agents and revolutionaries to preserve or transform the social order and find a purpose for humanity's suffering.
Neon Twilight attempts to present an alternative to the typical cyberpunk world of cliched megacorps and massive guns. In this world Western corporations have restructured, outsourced and transformed into design houses instead of becoming neo-feudal statelets. Old-style physical manufacturing has been relegated to the Middle Power countries such as Persia, Zhongguo, Nigeria and Morocco. Industrial conglomerates which 'make everything' have become inefficient and antiquated, and are only found in backward 'industrialized' economies such as North China or Persia.
Today's governments have retained their grip on most of what their citizens wish to be administered, despite dire warnings of the collapse of the nation-state in the late TwenCen. Military power still resides with the state, and covert use of this power in the form of paramilitary militias and clans has become a favourite pastime of controlling regimes. In a paradoxical fashion, societies have become both more and less regulated; governments are stronger in security and biological matters, but weaker in social legislation and commerce.
Aside from global commerce and the loose economic associations of like-minded regions known as Confederations, the major players on the international stage are the Clans. These internationally-recognized sovereign entities vary from loose associations such as La Francophonie to sophisticated and ruthless 'inter-nations' such as the Huaren and the Neo-Victorians. The clans exert tremendous influence on governments and corporations, and constantly promote their unique cultures and philosophies.
Without the moderating influence of the dozens of international organizations such as Protocol and the Security Franchise, these clans would have already precipitated several world wars in their blind hatred of each other.
While the clans battle for cultural supremacy, the vast Webworks expands to include more people and more dreams. Channeling the vast majority of the world's entertainment, commerce, communications and sports, the Webworks provides a veritable cornucopia of events and stimulation to keep the masses occupied. This is the way that an elderly elite in the Advanced nations — maintained by a vast medical-industrial complex — manages to retain control over a world filled with billions of young Third-Worlders. Without even realizing what had happened, the people of the new millennium created a system that mirrored perfectly the surveillance society of George Orwell's 1984, in which you are always part of the Network, and the Network always knows what you're doing. The secrecy and extraordinary powers granted to the security Apparatus in the United States have created a society of strictly-enforced moral behaviour promoted through fear of runaway technology and a promise of joining the ruling technocratic elites.
Although biotechnology has provided a boon to humanity in the form of gerontological life-extending treatments and genetic therapies, it has also unleashed the terrible powers of biological warfare. The Pacific War saw the first use of chemical and biological weapons whose devastating impact on not only society but on the ecosphere were unprecedented. Several crop bioplagues and genegineered parasites were released across the world which later mutated and triggered the ecological maelstrom that was later called the New Mutation.
The New Mutation caused untold havoc in the world's ecosystems, destroying countless species while bolstering others to the point of over-capacity. In a misguided effort to stem the destruction, hundreds of government and corporate laboratories released their own constructed organisms to battle against the invaders. The confusion and combat amongst species lead to super-evolutionary strains of bacteria, viruses, worms, and eventually insects — all of which became immune to conventional pesticides and controls within weeks. Faced with a crisis which appeared to be multiplying by the second, world leaders met in Osaka to work out a temporary solution to a problem that exceeded even the previous threat of nuclear war. As a million people became infected and died each week, the Protocol organization managed to institute the Osaka Biosafety Protocols, a series of draconian decontamination and isolation procedures which pretty much violated every civil right known to man, but which quickly began to stem the slaughter in at least the Advanced countries. The Osaka Standards have survived the test of time and continue to supply the wealthier parts of the world with a modicum of protection against health hazards of all kinds. Despite this, the majority of the world's inhabitants now have to live with the constant threat of parasitic infection and unexplained new diseases.
In the wake of the global chaos resulting from the biological disaster, and the ineffectiveness of most governments in controlling civil unrest, the world major corporations and paramilitary social groups (later clans) formed a pact to provide local law and order to besieged communities from Nagoya to Atlanta. Later known as the Security Franchise, this pact federated the world's major security forces into an effective profit-driven enterprise in governance. Today the Security Franchise has branch compounds in hundreds of thousands of communities around the world, and fiercely enforces its contracts to defend its residents.
The final collapse of the United Nations was imminent since the formation of the restrictive trading blocs at the turn of the century. Faced with regional trade blocs far exceeding its power to coerce or convince, the U.N. was eventually dismembered at the start of the Pacific War in a political fiasco that surprised no-one. What emerged during the War and later Reconstruction was an international organization far superior in negotiating global conflicts and settling disputes. Protocol quickly grew from a legal/accountancy/ consulting firm to a global arbiter and negotiator of unprecedented skill. Credited with having convinced the Chinese not to deploy their nuclear arsenal in the dying days of that conflict, Protocol was later instrumental in brokering the cease-fire and rebuilding the world's international framework following the war, the New Mutation, and the Network collapse.
Despite repeated attempts by the world's former superpowers to re-establish control, the world is fracturing into hundreds of tiny city-states and tribal groupings. Although the majority — such as Texas, Norcal, Okinawa, Utter-Pradesh and Euskadi — choose mere autonomy in a loose federation, there are some states which have opted for complete separation. Free Quebec, Padania, Sakha, Orangeria, and many others have formed completely new republics to represent their unique interests. Like 500 channels on a cable network, the world is a finely-segmented consumer culture.
The European Union still seeks to speak for its member countries and cultures (which now number more than 40), but its voice is weak even when its economies prosper because of internal troubles. Amazonia has given a single voice to the previously-ignored Hispanic culture of the Americas, while Persia attempts to unite its faction-ridden Islamic brethren. The Russian Holy Crusade in Central Asia continues in the face of constant massacres on both sides, and Azanian repression in Southern Africa continues while Protocol negotiation is refused.
Within the confusing world of Neon Twilight each society must fight to preserve its culture, and the network nature of the world helps to ensure diversity even as it promotes excessive surveillance and a diminution of the rights of man. It will be radical new movements, paranoid strategies and vicious psychosocial sabotage — not guns or cybernetics — which will win the Culture Wars.
The world of Neon Twilight is fractured, confusing and sometimes horrible, but it's all there is between us and the void of space. Is the world trapped in a gloomy twilight between the wonders of new science and the horrors of new weaponry, or can the players find some glimmer of hope in this poisoned landscape?
