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Playing Hardball
Saturday, 9 July 2005
The Importance of Independent Stats
In the world of insider baseball, known to most as Major League Baseball, most of the statistics posted by this group of individuals end up resembling a mess of illogical mathematics.



So how do you make a set of numbers resemble a set of logical calculations? The answer is simply using independent statistics in which other batters or baserunners are not to be included in the calculations. Some examples of these incomplete, team orientated stats include what most purists consider essential components, runs, and runs batted in. The problem is that these are a set of numbers which only tell half the picture of what an individual is doing on the field.



A quick, yet well thought out stat I have assembled is what I call, "Independent Bases Percentage." I originally used this set of numbers to be included in a stat very close to Bill Jame's Secondary percentage. The big difference from James is that I include base on balls as part of the primary stat, while James beleives that bases on ball should be part of the secondary stat. Another difference is that I have added on an extra bases : stolen bases ratio to document how the player achieves the secondary bases.



In the end, this stat ends up resembling a revised version of OPS, but instead of counting bases twice, I only count the extra bases and stolen bases in the secondary portion of the stat. Also, stolen bases are included in this part of the stat while not being included in the ops.



The calculation reads the following:



Primary Independent Base Percentage: On Base Percentage adjusted to the ballpark factor.



Secondary Independent Base Percentage: All extra bases [which means not counting first base with the extra base calculations] plus stolen bases divided by at bats plus stolen bases plus caught stealing. Also, adjust this with the ballpark factor. Additionally, I document the extra bases to stolen bases by showing a ratio between these two ways of base advancement.



Total Independent Base Percentage: Simply add up the primary and secondary category to display the final calculation.



2004 Stats



Primary Independent Base Percentage
Barry Bonds .600
Lance Berkman .450
Jim Edmonds .438
J.D. Drew .436
Albert Pujols .435
Travis Hafner .430
Scot Rolen .429
Bobby Abbreau .426
Tod Helton .422
Jorge Posada .419



Secondary Independent Base Percent [w/extra base : stolen base ratio]
Barry Bonds .451 [97:3]
Jim Edmonds .367 [96:4]
Albert Pujols .345 [98:2]
Carlos Beltron .342 [80:20]
Adam Dunn .324 [97:3]
Adrian Beltre .315 [96:4]
Jim Thome .304 [100:0]
Scot Rolen .302 [97:3]
Manny Ramirez .296 [99:1]
Vladimeur Guerrero .291 [92:8]



Total Independent Base Percentage
Bobby Bonds 1.051
Jim Edmonds .805
Albert Pujols .780
Scot Rolen .731
Adam Dunn .730
Carlos Beltron .728
Adrian Beltre .721
Travis Hafner .718
J.D. Drew .716
Bobby Abbreau .714




Posted by blues/blueblood at 1:38 AM CDT
Updated: Saturday, 9 July 2005 3:05 AM CDT
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