**It is time for me to toss simple math equations out of the window and introduce my ego to the concept of Logarithm Probability. According to my overly snotty opinion, adding probability to these numbers help to increase accuracy in numbers.**

How do I add this new form of math to my baseball studies repretaur? Not so simply, I calculate the binomial probability of both an individual player's bases per out and the league's bases per out. A big difference compared to other studies [which I am in on the details] is that instead of using the straight league mean, I incorporate finding the league average without the individual player's numbers being rated.

So why should I go through all this trouble of crunching all these numbers in this probability equation instead of the more familiar and much easier simple version? Simply said, pre-probability baseball stats in the rawest form are a display of streaks which usually do not display any definitive results to most statisticians.The reason? Our easy to reach data sample pool is so small that it really shows how lucky or unlucky a certain individual is. Results are shown in a chaotic fashion, which in reality do not follow the laws of probability. Therefore, it is best to bang your head against the wall a few times before starting to personally compute these equations. [Word of warning: either get a good computer program which can compute this mess of numbers, or at least purchase a scientific calculator.]

Viewing the results show that a lot more individuals are viewed as being right on the mean or even below this level, while they were actually above this line in a previous statistical life. Additionally, some lower tier performers have been boosted to at least a *semi-marginal* status. Through the laws of probability, it is not possible to be performing on a machine like level year [or a broken down human human being] year in and year out.

__2005 Total Independent Bases Index__

[The mean is .000, while stats are adjusted for a Swiss {neutral} ballpark. 500 plate appearance minimum.]

Total Independent Bases Index [2005]

__TIB Index | TIB Dividends__

B. Abbreau .373 | 22.5

R. Adams -.209 | 0

M. Alou .370 | 16.8

G. Anderson -.119 | 0

G. Atkins -.119 | 0

R. Baldelli .171 | 4.0

J. Bay .427 | 29.6

D. Bell -.313 | 0

R. Belliard-.400 | 0

C. Beltran .192 | 5.5

A. Beltre -.163 | 0

L. Berkman .423 | 23.6

A. Berroa -.283 | 0

C. Biggio .207 | 6.6

C. Blake .071 | .7

H. Blalock -.166 | 0

A. Boone -.222 | 0

E. Brown .245 | 9.0

P. Burrell .311 | 14.9

M. Cabrera .391 | 24.1

O. Cabrera-.218 | 0

R. Cano -.138 | 0

J. Cantu .180 | 4.9

S. Casey .111 | 1.7

V. Castilla-.003 | 0

L. Castillo .244 | 7.3

Er. Chavez .165 | 4.4

B. Clark .154 | 3.4

R. Clayton-.270 | 0

C. Counsell .115 | 2.0

C. Crawford .293 | 13.4

C. Crisp .264 | 10.1

D DeJesus .227 | 6.3

J. Damon .219 | 7.1

C. Delgado .428 | 26.3

D. Dellucci .323 | 13.4

A. Dunn .372 | 22.2

R. Durham .219 | 6.8

J. Dye .224 | 7.3

D. Eckstein-.001 | 0

J. Edmonds .383 | 20.8

J. Encarnicion .218 | 6.7

M. Ensberg .232 | 8.9

D. Erstad-.176 | 0

A. Everitt-.234 | 0

C. Everitt -.001 | 0

P. Feliz-.130 | 0

C. Figgins .293 | 13.5

S. Finley-.296 | 0

C. Floyd .340 | 17.3

L. Ford-.192 | 0

R. Furcal .258 | 10.

3

J. Giambi .418 | 24.2

J. Gibbons .250 | 8.7

B. Giles .430 | 29.2

M. Giles .259 | 10.2

T. Glaus .330 | 16.2

L. Gonzalez .143 | 8.7

S. Green .249 | 9.8

K. Griffey, Jr .376 | 16.4

M. Grudzeilanik -.176 | 0

V. Guerrero .425 | 25.5

J. Guillen .208 | 6.4

T. Hafner .429 | 25.2

B. Hall .288 | 12.1

S. Hatteberg-.282 | 0

T. Helton .402 | 23.3

S. Hillenbrand-.108 | 0

E. Hinske .068 | .7

M. Holliday .252 | 8.0

A. Huff .131 | 2.6

R. Ibanez .246 | 9.8

T. Iguchi .249 | 8.4

B. Inge .147 | 3.5

G. Jenkins .13.2

N. Johnson .372 | 18.1

A. Jones .337 | 18.2

J. Jones .118 | 2.0

D. Jeter .259 | 10.7

J. Kendell-.326 | 0

J. Kent .364 | 19.7

R. Klesco .256 | 9.0

P. Kenerko .333 | 17.5

M. Kotsay-.153 | 0

J. Lane .251 | 9.1

M. Lawton .166 | 3.9

C. Lee .247 | 9.9

D. Lee .435 | 29.9

F. Lopez .265 | 10.4

M. Lowell-.232 | 0

J. Lugo .261 | 10.8

R. Mackowiak-.133

V. Martinez .265 | 10.3

H. Matsui .269 | 11.7

G Matthews, Jr .075 | .7

J. Mauer .208 | 5.6

K. Mench .208 | 3.0

K. Millar-.002 | 0

C. Monroe .169 | 4.5

M. Mora .217 | 7.0

J. Morneau-.138 | 0

B. Mueller .194 | 5.6

D. Ortiz .432 | 29.7

L. Overbay .091 | 1.3

N. Perez-.288 | 0

J. Pierre .171 | 4.8

P. Polonco .218 | 6.1

J. Posada .160 | 3.6

A. Pujols .472 | 35.9

A. Ramirez .336 | 13.8

M. Ramirez .402 | 24.6

J. Randa .130 | 2.6

J. Reed -.181 | 0

E. Rentaria-.177 | 0

J. Reyes .131 | 2.8

A. Rios-.210 | 0

A. Rodriguez .455 | 33.5

B. Roberts .402 | 23.2

D. Roberts .308 | 10.9

I. Rodriguez -.121 | 0

J. Rollins .170 | 4.5

A. Rowand-.193 | 0

R. Sexson .380 | 22.5

G. Sheffield .325 | 16.2

G. Sizemore .300 | 14.2

A. Soriano .237 | 8.7

S. Stewert-.234 | 0

I. Suzuki .258 | 10.7

M. Sweeney .303 | 11.2

N. Swisher .071 | .7

W. Taveras-.188 | 0

M. Teixeira .362 | 21.3

M. Tejada .296 | 14.2

C. Tracy .314 | 14.3

J. Uribe -.220 | 0

C. Utley .352 | 18.2

J. Varitek .285 | 10.8

O. Vizquel .013 | 0

V. Wells .131 | 2.7

B. Wilkerson .216 | 6.9

B. Williams-.242 | 0

P. Wilson .160 | 3.5

J. Wilson-.306 | 0

R. Winn .333 | 17.7

D. Wright .400 | 25.7

D. Young .170 | 3.7

M. Young .207 | 6.8

G. Zaun .046 | .3

**
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**Posted by blues/blueblood at 10:48 PM CST**

Updated: Thursday, 9 February 2006 2:21 AM CST

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Updated: Thursday, 9 February 2006 2:21 AM CST

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