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STORY ARCHIVES April 10 - An Early Look at the MVP Race January 25 - More Fun With Graphs January 12 - The No Name Nationals January 5 - Lou Gehrig Traded to Stars December 30 - Lou Gehrig trade to Stars Vetoed December 14 - Walter Johnson Trade December 8 - Pre-Season Position Battles
April 10, 2006
One can make the argument that the MVP Award should be given to the player that means the most to his team. One can further surmise that this infers the MVP should go to the player whose loss would impact his team the most severely. Using this guide and a little math, the race for MVP can be analyzed, or at least talked about (analysis is perhaps a bit too strong!)
Using formulas and spreadsheets from my other league where I have been the commissioner for the past 7 seasons, I thought the All-Star break would be a good time to get an early view into the MVP races. To determine each of the candidates the following steps were taken (at high level, if anybody wants the math let me know):
- Calculate players Runs Created as a percentage of his team’s RC - Adjust for position (small) - Adjust for Team Winning Percentage (smaller) - Determine how much better the player is over the 2nd and 3rd best on the team - Pitchers are not eligible
A note on the team winning percentage adjustment. I believe that a high performing player on a winning team should be provided some type of advantage over similar players on non-contenders. The main reason is the same you hear from sports columnists all the time – take a great payer away from a great team and you are left with a bad team. Conversely, take a great player from a bad team, and well – who cares, the team is still bad.
This is taken to the extreme in most cases, but the principle is still sound in my mind, although to a much lesser degree. Additionally, this helps off-set the A-Rod factor. As Bill Simmons pointed out recently, A-Rod has a habit (unproven, but as Yankee fan I wholeheartedly agree) of racking up his stats when the games don’t count. I think it quite possible that it’s easier to perform without the close scrutiny that usually accompanies a contending team.
The combined effect of both adjustments in there extreme cases is rather small and effectively acts as a tie-breaking factor.
Yes, there are flaws (no defense!) in this system, but something can also be learned from it. Besides, it is the MVP race - an entirely subjective process here in the ATL (as in real-life too) so consider this just one more piece of the puzzle.
UNION LEAGUE Starting with the Union since it is the home of Babe Ruth. Ruth is hands down the best player in either the league this year, and is hands down the best player on the Detroit Tigers. His line is mind-boggling:
Ruth: .336 / .490 / .792, 1.282 OPS, 45 HR, 85 R, 101 RBI
For those counting at home, this ranks 1st in: AVG, OBP, SLG, R, RBI, HR, XBH, BB, IBB, RC, RC/27, ISO, TAVG, TB, OPS.
Aside from his stellar statistics, he is overwhelmingly the best player on the Tigers. Below are the top 5 on the team in terms of Runs Created:
135.4 – Ruth 84.0 – Brett 67.4 – Tim Raines 48.7 – Willie McCovey 44.5 – Bobby Grich
The award is his to lose, and I am banking on him widening the gap rather than having it closed. The rest of the league stacks up as follows (including Ruth in the stat lines for easy reference):
159% - Babe Ruth - .336 / .490 / .792, 1.282 OPS, 45 HR, 85 R, 101 RBI 70% - Carlos Delgado - .318 / .397 / .650, 1.046 OPS, 27 HR, 67 R, 63 RBI 59% - Hank Aaron - .286 / .334 / .508, .842 OPS, 23 HR, 64 R, 66 RBI 54% - Jerry Benjamin - .325 / .383 / .484, .867 OPS, 11 HR, 60 R, 50 RBI 32% - Hideki Matsui - .307 / .376 / .627, 1.003 OPS, 20 HR, 53 R, 60 RBI 28% - Willie Mays - .306 / .350 / .555, .905 OPS, 23 HR, 71 R, 81 RBI 27% - Bill Terry - .313 / .360 / .507, .867 OPS, 13 HR, 70 R, 70 RBI 25% - Earl Combs - .299 / .384 / .475, .859 OPS, 7 HR, 30 R, 28 RBI 25% - Charlie Keller - .258 / .342 / .526, .868 OPS, 28 HR, 70 R, 69 RBI 20% - Jesse Burkett - .308 / .363 / .474, .837 OPS, 12 HR, 46 R, 44 RBI 16% - Duke Snider - .293 / .345 / .576, .920 OPS, 20 HR, 51 R, 68 RBI 8% - Dick Allen - .255 / .319 / .507, .827 OPS, 24 HR, 60 R, 68 RBI
A few comments: - The first line is a result of ‘the math’. Including the adjustments, this is the percentage the player exceeds the average RC of the two next-best hitters on the team. Ruth scores 159% better than George Brett.
- The astute may have noticed that each player is on a different team. I took the liberty of instituting a rule that once a team had a player listed, the rest of the team was not eligible. While a good case could be made for the possibility of the second best player on a team being better than the best player on a another team, it is more fun to include all of our owners this way J
- Duke Snider is a prime example of how the system works. By all means, he should rate in terms of pure offense, much higher than he does on this list. His .920 OPS is 4th best of the players who appear above.
However, one of Snider’s teammates happens to be Nap Lajoie. Lajoie has 57.9 RC to Snider’s 58.0 RC. The third best hitter on the team, Chuck Klein, sports a 49.4 RC. As a result, Snider takes a hit in terms of value to the team. While still the most valuable, the 2nd and 3rd best hitters are not too far behind and the Spiders would not be completely lost without his services.
- It is good to see some relative unknowns on this list (read: non mainstream HOFers) such as Jerry Benjamin, Hideki Matsui, and Dick Allen.
LEGENDS LEAGUE Here is a race worth talking about. At least three players can currently stake a claim to most valuable in the more powerful of the two leagues. The top players appear to be Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, and Ted Williams in that order. Surprises include Pop Lloyd, a late bloomer this year, Reggie Jackson, and basement dwelling Rod Carew.
55% - Ty Cobb - .382 / .424 / .559, .983 OPS, 10 HR, 72 R, 78 RBI 48% - Honus Wagner - .342 / .397 / .538, .935 OPS, 10 HR, 64 R, 76 RBI 42% - Ted Williams - .325 / .457 / .662, 1.120 OPS, 35 HR, 100 R, 91 RBI 39% - Pop Lloyd - .330 / .414 / .481, .894 OPS, 5 HR, 76 R, 54 RBI 35% - Sadaharu Oh - .289 / .423 / .541, .964 OPS, 19 HR, 65 R, 73 RBI 31% - Reggie Jackson - .238 / .356 / .501, .858 OPS, 24 HR, 58 R, 69 RBI 23% - John McGraw - .333 / .436 / .466, .902 OPS, 9 HR, 64 R, 44 RBI 22% - Barry Bonds - .249 / .422 / .507, .929 OPS, 19 HR, 76 R, 69 RBI 16% - Rod Carew - .324 / .384 / .394, .777 OPS, 2 HR, 71 R, 32 RBI 16% - Tony Gwynn - .303 / .335 / .416, .751 OPS, 5 HR, 60 R, 34 RBI 16% - Joe Jackson - .322 / .371 / .535, .906 OPS, 8 HR, 57 R, 67 RBI 13% - Stan Musial - .287 / .357 / .519, .876 OPS, 19 HR, 72 R, 74 RBI
Comments - The biggest trade of the off-season may end up swapping out MVP’s – Cobb and Ruth
- The Legends League has many more non-sluggers up for the award – three of top 4 are high average, low home run type ball players. It would be interesting to see if this is a league wide trend
- One questions the validity of the formula when you see two people with OPS scores below .800 on an MVP list. But it is important to remember that we are essentially removing the bias of ‘only winning teams can apply’. Additionally, scores of 16% are so far removed from the contenders that they aren’t in the same conversation as Cobb and Wagner.
- Barry Bonds gets a lot of flack in this league, but I would take a .930 OPS outfielder who is on pace for 100+ Runs and RBI any day of the week.
The Nats website, woefully out of date, also has this article with full charts to view as well. I planned to do a lot more writing this year, hopefully time will allow in the future. https://www.angelfire.com/blog/atb/Washington_Nationals.htm
February 2, 2006
The Nationals end the 9th simulation two games over .500, tying them for the highest mark they've attained so far this season. This is good and bad news story and the next month will have a lot to say about their playoff chances. The good news is the Nats are playing the best ball of the season, and the bad of course is that they are only 17-15 despite this recent run of good fortune.
The Nats currently ride a 3 game winning streak and need to continue their momentum as they try to stake a claim to the second best team in the Union Atlantic. This has been a road traveled before however, as they recently followed up a 4 game winning streak in mid-April with a not so hot streak that left them back at the .500 mark at the end of Sim #8.
The Good Their offense really, and it is not just a result of the bandbox the Nationals reside in. As a team, they are batting .277 / .341 / .495, quite impressive numbers no matter the park (and keep in mind singles and doubles are suppressed in American League Park). Here is where they stack up with the rest of the Union League:
2nd - AVG 4th - OBP 1st - SLG 1st - RC 2nd - RUNS
The team is led by both those who where expected to perform, as well as some mid-level surprises:
1B (Cash/Hodges): .260 / .384 / .625, 12 HR, 21 R, 17 RBI, 1.009 OPS Charlie Keller: .305 / .383 / .585, 8 HR, 21 R, 20 RBI, .968 OPS Cal McVey: .368 / .373 / .596, 4 HR, 17 R, 15 RBI, .969 OPS Charlie Gehringer: .305 / .388 / .492, 5 HR, 25 R, 12 RBI, .880 OPS
Some pitchers have held their own in American League Park as well:
Rick Aguilera: 1-0, 2.01 ERA, 22.1 IP, 15 H, 5 BB, 14 K Mike Henneman: 2-0, 3.22 ERA, 22.1 IP, 21 H, 8 BB, 11 K Red Lucas: 2-3, 3.47 ERA, 36.1 IP, 31 H, 10 BB, 18 K
The Bad The balance of the staff has some issues to say the least. As a team, the Nats sport a 5.39 ERA (12th), 13.7 R/9 (12th), 4.6 K/9 (10th), 1.5 K/BB (9th). The major culprits have been the starting staff, and a glimmer of good news is that they are grossly underperforming preseason expectations and it stands to reason their will be at least some improvement by several of the key players. The flip side of course is that Aguilera and Henneman will regress as well.
Ellis Kinder: 1-4, 6.35 ERA, 34.0 IP, 43 H, 15 BB, 18 K Babe Adams: 2-3, 6.21 ERA, 29.0 IP, 39 H, 5 BB, 9 K Jim Whitney: 1-1, 6.00 ERA, 18.0 IP, 30 H, 3 BB, 14 K
Some batters have left a lot to be desired, especially when considering expectations:
Lip Pike: .263 / .333/ .463, 2 HR, 16 R, 10 RBI, .796 OPS Ron Santo: .233 / .298/ .350, 3 HR, 11 R, 10 RBI, .648 OPS
The Graph - Runs Scored/Runs Against As you can see, since the middle of the last week in April or so, the Nationals have finally showed signs of getting their pitching under control. While this has not resulted in a steady diet of winning, it is a good sign for potential consistency in the future.
The clear low point was the period of time between April 9th and April 15 where the squad yielded 15 runs against an astounding 3 times. Of note has been the Nationals schedule, their only away dates have been April 15, 21-23, and May 2-4 (as denoted by the blue gridlines).
January 25, 2006
I have always been a sucker for a table of baseball data or a good graph that explains statistics in a new and meaningful way. To that end, every once in a while I spend some time trying to look at basic information that is considered standard and try to conceive an alternate view in hopes of seeing it in a new light.
Today I thought it might be interesting to look at hit rates for batters (singles, doubles, triples, and home runs), pitching rates for hurlers (H/9, R/9, K/9, HR/9), and chart each team versus the league average.
I freely admit I am not 100% certain what this all means, but it is a great way to tell where each team stands compared to others in these categories. At least to me it is considerably easier to read than using the DMB Team Totals reports.
Hit Rates Above/Below Average Using a simple formula it is a quick exercise to determine each teams Hit Rates. To do this simply divide plate appearances by each type of hit: PA/1B, PA/2B, etc.... After that, compare each result to the league average in the category. From there, graph it in Excel. As a nice addition, I sorted the results by the number of runs scored by each team in descending order.
To read the chart above:
Take a look at PPL. They : - Lead the league in Runs Scored - Are above average in HR, 2B, and 3B - Are about average for 1B
Conversely the second highest scoring team, SLL, is below average in doubles and significantly below average in singles. They make up for this with an incredible amount of home runs (tops in the league) and a high amount of triples.
Other fun facts: - The Highs and Lows
- No team is below average in each category - Only PPL is above average in each (barely with a 0.3% score in singles) - As one might expect, as you climb up the hit type scale - 1B-->2B -->3B-->HR - the spread of outcomes becomes greater. - 1B: - 36.7% to +11.2%, Absolute spread of 47.8% - 2B: - 49.0% to +30.4%, Absolute spread of 79.4% - 3B: -109.7% to +37.4%, Absolute spread of 147.0% - HR: -136.8% to +43.0%, Absolute spread of 179.8%
Pitching Rates Above/Below Average Very similar to hitting rates, only using H/9, R/9, K/9, and HR/9. Teams are now sorted in runs given up lowest to highest, with teams left of the red line yielding less runs given up than average
More fun facts: - The Highs and Lows
- Only PPL is above average in each category. This was true for hitting as well, and this may be the new mark of a great team. - KCU, TGU, OAL, NYL, and WNU are all below average in each category. - The spread for pitching is not as important to view since the categories are not related like the hit types, but: - the tightest spread is R/9 with teams ranging from -21.4% to 15.9% - the larges spread is HR/9 with teams ranging from -83.3% to 41.7%
What does it all mean? Without park factors taken into consideration one must be very cautions. Does WNU have that bad a staff or is the park to blame? Is PPL understated because Forbes Field is actually a good hitters park except for home runs?
Even with these types of questions unanswered we can still use data like this to assess each teams strengths and weaknesses, especially as the season wears on. Perhaps one can take a look at the above and decide which area is the most pressing need to improve? Take DTU for instance, how much better might they be if they improved the home run rates of their pitchers? They have a similar result to NYU except their home run rates are completely reversed - could one assume that given less homer prone pitchers they would improve 3 spots in the runs yielded rankings?
At worst, this is an alternate (read: fun!) way to view the run of the mill and sometimes boring stat tables we've all grown too accustomed too.
January 19, 2005
It is much too early to begin to speculate on the draft day successes of each franchise, but that has never stopped me from putting my foot in my mouth so I am going to attempt to do just that. With the use of the wonderful VLOOKUP tool in Excel, we can fairly quickly compare how each player is performing and compare the results to the order in which they where drafted.
For example, the #1 Overall Pick was Ross Barnes. He remains with the team that Drafted him, the Red Sox, and is sporting a lovely 1.022 OPS - superb for anyone let alone a second basemen. At the other end of the spectrum is the oft discussed Dan Brouthers. Drafted 5th overall by the Nationals, he is now on the Cubs and in 66 AB has only a .694 OPS - which probably awards him the worst draft pick to date.
What other golden nuggets are out there?
We can also review team data. The Cubs have held on to only 6 of their 20 draft picks, while the Colt 45's have kept each of their 13 selections. The team by team breakdown:
What about "Poor Drafting"? For the most part we can assume that if a player was drafted and subsequently let go he is either not performing or the team found a better option. In other words - a wasted pick. Lets take a look at the number of players turned free agent by team (after they were drafted): NEW
The Nationals have had an unbelievable 8 players dropped either outright or after being traded away. That is particularly awful - 40% of their draft was a complete waste!
Most importantly in my opinion is learning about league wide trends. How valuable are players in the draft? What are the chances of really improving a team on draft day? Take a look at the results when grouping players into categories: Excellent, Very Good, Good, OK, Bad, Poor, No Playing Time, Little Playing Time, and Dropped
However, it's only game 17 or so and this type of analysis is very premature. Playing time will change, hot streaks will begin or end, and a week from now the charts could literally look completely opposite that what they do today. Also, for batters, this "analysis" takes into consideration offense only when we know defense is a significant aspect of why a player was drafted and their true value to a club. It will be extremely interesting to keep up with this as the season progresses and should make for great fodder during next seasons draft debate.
I'll update from time to time, and the next one will include a player by player breakdown. I'll also try to incorporate defensive values so that a .700 OPS shortstop with excellent range isn't considered an average type ballplayer.
Let the flaming begin!
NEW CHARTS This chart categories each player drafted into 1 of 4 broad categories. The last column calculates the % of picks that have been good or better.
This is a graphical representation of the above table. It is sorted by the number of raw "good or better" picks, which is shaded in th blue color. As you can see, the last 8 teams did not pick 1 good or better player. One may be able to argue that the % of good players is not as important as the volume of good players drafted. It all depends upon the team needs....
Day 13
It has been an up and down start for the Nats of DC. On one hand the team is coming off it's first winning streak since the first few games of the season (2 games is still a streak!), but on the other hand the Nats pitching has caused a minus-22 Run Differential. Think about it, if pro-rated for the entire season that works out to be minus-261; or in other words a beautiful winning percentage somewhere around .380.
The team knew pitching was going to be an issue, but did not realize how much of one. Take the following lines (please!): - 27.00, Dizzy Dean (traded) - 15.43, Todd Jones (farmed) - 10.38, Stu Miller - 7.82, Ellis Kinder - Six others with ERA's over 6.00
In all, the team has yielded 163 Hits and 40 Walks in just 110 innings (1.85 WHIP, 1.028 OPS Against). On the bright side, much of the -22 Run Differential is due to three blowouts. However, that also just highlights the fact that the Nats have been blown out three times (defined here as losing by more than 6 runs). This historically bad and no offense in the world could make up for this ineptitude.
However, the Nat's offense is trying to do just that. On pace to score 950 runs, the Nationals have been able win just as often as they have lost. Six starters have OPS scores over 1.000, the team has hit 25 home runs (tops in the ATL), and as a whole are providing offense at the prolific level of .315 / .378 / .546, .924 OPS. The team Runs Created score of 91.7 is over 16% better than the second best team, the Colt 45's.
Game of the Week Really, the game of the past two weeks was already discussed by the KC Monarch owner, Michael, but you'll forgive my indulgence into a rare Nationals victory:
Down by 3 runs entering the 8th, the heart of the Nationals order flexed their muscle by drilling 2 home runs off of starter Masaji Hiramatsu to tie the game and ultimately force extra innings. Star catcher Cal McVey led off the inning by stroking a 1-2 pitch to deep center bringing the home team to within two. Hiramatsu settled down to retire the next two batters but walked the center fielder Lip Pike on 4 straight pitches. In a close game, one could argue for a call to the pen at this moment, but the right handed starter stayed in to face the left handed hitting Norm Cash. The first basemen put a charge into it, drilling the pitch deep over the right field fence to tie the game.
Both teams went scoreless in the ninth, and the Monarchs dashed the hopes of the home crowd by taking a 1 run lead after 10 1/2. Stu Miller, the Nats 6th pitcher of the game, came in for relief. Miller promptly gave up back to back singles to Jackie Robinson and Deacon White, but managed to retire Pelayo Chacon and Stan Hack on a force out and a smokin' liner to right. This set the stage for Monarch favorite Reuben "Joltin Joe" Jones to single in the go-ahead run.
A deflated crowd stuck around for bottom of the inning and was rewarded. Closer Dave Smith entered the game to face the 3-4-5 hitters and ran into trouble on the second batter. After retiring Charlie Keller, Ed Stone lined a 2-0 pitch down the right field line for a double. Pike followed with a second double, bringing the Nats within two runs. 8th inning hero Cash was walked intentionally, and perhaps feeling the heat Smith pitched around George Davis on 4 straight pitches to load the bases.
Chet Brewer relieved Smith to no avail - 8th place hitter Ron Santo singled, two runs scored, and the game was over.
Introducing the Washington "No Name" Nationals The pre-season trading frenzy has been furious, especially so in Washington DC where an incredible 14 of the main 17 roster slots from last are now manned with new blood. Keep in mind, we are talking about a Playoff Team from the inaugural DMB-ATL season. Because of the turnover, we thought it was time to re-introduce the "No Names" to the league.
Batters First Base, Gil Hodges & Norm Cash Second Base, Charlie Gehringer
Starting Rotation Starting Pitcher 1, Babe Adams Starting Pitcher 2, Bret Saberhagen Starting Pitcher 3, Ellis Kinder Starting Pitcher 5, Dizzy Dean
Bullpen
Catcher - Cal McVey, RH: Pr Range, Vg Arm Career: .346 / .354 / .446 Leaderboard: 1871 - Hits, 1874 - Runs, Hits, Total Bases, RBI, Runs Created 1875 - Slugging, OPS, Total Bases, Doubles, RBI, Runs Created
Statistics RL: .348 / .357 / .448, .807 OPS PROJ: .318 / .353 / .494, .847 OPS
McVey will most likely challenge as one of the top 10 catchers in the game. Cast aside by most because of his poor range, the Nationals took a chance on him because they felt range was a non-factor in the catcher position. His Arm is Very Good and should help hold the opponents running game at bay.
In real life McVey was an excellent hitting jack of all trades, playing almost all the positions on the diamond. He was a member of the first professional baseball team the Cincinnati Redstockings and went on to play 9 seasons in organized baseball, the last two of which he was player/manager.
First Base - Norm Cash, LH & Gil Hodges, RH Platoon. Vg Ranges Career: Cash .271 / .374 / .488 Hodges .273 / .359 / .487
Leaderboard: 1961 (Cash) - Batting Average, On Base Percentage, OPS, Hits, Run Created
Statistics: Cash RL .276 / .373 / .485, .859 OPS Hodges RL .268 / .353 / .373, .826 OPS
Cash PROJ .264 / .349 / .496, .845 OPS Hodges PROJ .247 / .328 / .450, .778 OPS
Most famous for perhaps the biggest 'fluke' season ever in 1961 (.361 / .487 / .662, 1.149 OPS, 41 HR, 134 RBI) Cash was probably underrated for his career. His combination of above average hitting and great defense made him a mainstay in the Detroit Tiger lineup for 13 seasons (he played 17) were he made two World Series appearances.
Gil Hodges was one of the most beloved members of the late 40's to early 60's Brooklyn Dodgers. He was big, strong, and gentle - and an excellent fielder. The three time Gold Glove winner also hit over 30 HR five times and reached over 40 HR twice.
Second Base - Charlie Gehringer, RH: Vg Range Career: .320 / .404 / .480 Leaderboard: 1929 - Runs, Hits, Doubles, Triples, Stolen Bases 1934 - Runs, Hits 1936 - Doubles 1937 - Batting Average
Statistics: RL: .299 / .369 / .470, .839 OPS PROJ: .288 / .360 / .481, .841 OPS
The extremely soft spoken "Mechanical Man" was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1949, and is considered one of the top second baggers of all time. His nickname was given due to his dependability; Doc Cramer once said, "You wind him up Opening Day and forget him" while his manager Mickey Cochrane commented, "Charlie says `hello' on Opening Day, `goodbye' on closing day, and in between hits .350."
In a rare combination, Gehringer fielded his position with excellence while maintaining well above average offense prowess for a second basemen. He drove in 100 RBI or more seven times, slugged over .500 seven times, and scored over 100 runs 12 times.
Third Base - Ron Santo, RH: Ex Range Career: .277 / .362 / .464 Leaderboard: 1964 - On Base Percentage 1966 - On Base Percentage
Statistics: RL .276 / .372 / .473, .845 OPS PROJ. .240 / .324 / .438, .762 OPS
Santo, who many believe is of Hall of Fame quality, was one of the best fielding third basemen of all time. A life long Chicago player (14 years with the Cubs, 1 year with the White Sox), Santo was very emotional and often hot tempered. He won 5 gold gloves, topped 25 HR eight times, and drove in over 100 four times. Santo's biggest asset is range, which is the highest value in the game.
Shortstop - George Davis, SH: Vg Range Career:.295 / .361 / .405 Leaderboard: Amazingly, none
Statistics RL: .289 / .357 / .448, .804 OPS PROJ: .277 / .343 / .469, .812 OPS
Elected to the Hall of Fame in 1998 by the Veterans Committee, Davis was won of the best shortstops in the game during the 1890's. With very good defense and strong bat, only Hughie Jennings and Honus Wagner were considered superior infielders. He batted over .300 in nine consecutive seasons and in 1893 fashioned a then-record 33-game hitting streak.
Left Field - Charlie Keller, LH: Av Range, Fr Arm Career: .286 / .410 / .518 Leaderboard: 1940 - Walks, 1943 - Walks, Adjusted OPS
Statistics RL: .283 / .394 / .525, .919 OPS PROJ: .281 / .383 / .569, .952 OPS
Nicknamed "King Kong" because of his thick, bushy eyebrows and incredibly muscular body, Keller was an outstanding batting outfielder chronic back problems caused him to miss considerable time off the field in only his 5th big league season. While he was healthy however, Keller averaged a .416 OBP, and a .528 SLG. He appeared in 4 World Series for the great Yankee teams of the late 1930's and early 1940's.
Center Field - Lip Pike, LH: Av Range, Av Arm Career: .321 / .338 / .565 Leaderboard: 1871 - Home Runs 1872 - Home Runs, RBI 1873 - Home Runs 1874 - Slugging, Doubles 1875 - Adjusted OPS 1877 - Home Runs
Statistics RL: .322 / .341 / .465, .806 OPS PROJ: .301 / .358 / .548, .906 OPS
Lip Pike was one of the premier players of his time. He was a great slugger and one of the best home run hitters, so much so that stories about balls he hit were told for quite some time after he stopped playing. He was also one of the fastest players in the league. He would occasionally race any challenger for a cash prize, routinely coming out the winner. On August 16, 1873, he faced a trotting horse in a hundred-yard sprint, and won, earning $250.
Right Field - Ed Stone, LH: Vg Range, Ex Arm Career: Negro Leagues, 1930 - 1946
Statistics: RL .282 / .367 / .493, .860 OPS PROJ .283 / .360 / .552, .912 OPS
Stone's career year came in 1937 when he batted .334 and slugged .590. He appeared to be a career .300 hitter batting .323, .317, .334, .363, and .300 in consecutive years.
Starting Pitcher 1 - Babe Adams Career: 194-140, 2.76 ERA, 2995.3 IP, 2841 H, 1036 K
Leaderboard: 1911 - WHIP 1914 - WHIP 1919 - WHIP, Walks Per 9 Innings 1920 - WHIP, Walks Per 9 Innings 1921 - Winning Percentage, WHIP, Walks Per 9 Innings, ERA+ 1922 - Walks Per 9 Innings
Statistics: RL 3.06 ERA, 9.4 R/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9 PROJ 4.34 ERA, 11.1 R/9, 4.0 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
The Pittsburgh Pirates ace in the early 1910's, Adams impeccable control led him to two twenty win seasons in 1911 and 1913. He once pitched an entire 21-inning game and didn't yield a single walk. In 1916 Adams had arm trouble that almost cost him his career, but bounced back for several more good seasons and finally retired at the age of 43.
Starting Pitcher 2- Bret Saberhagen Career: 167-117, 3.34 ERA, 2562.7 IP, 2452 H, 1715 K
Leaderboard: 1985 - WHIP, Walks Per 9 Innings 1989 - Earned Run Average, Wins, Winning Percentage, WHIP, Complete Games, ERA+ 1994 - Walks Per 9 Innings
Statistics RL 3.06 ERA, 10.0 R/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9 PROJ 4.84 ERA, 12.1 R/9, 4.9 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
Bret Saberhagen 16-year career was marked by two Cy Young Awards, two 20 win seasons, and three seasons in which is ERA+ was over 150. At the same time, Saberhagen could often be an average pitcher and had several losing seasons with high ERA's. At his best however, he was virtually unhittable. In 1989 he went 23-6 with a 2.16 ERA in over 260 IP.
Starting Pitcher 3- Ellis Kinder Career: 102-71, 3.43 ERA, 1479.7 IP, 1421 H, 749 K
Leaderboard: 1949 - Winning Percentage, Shutouts 1951 - Winning Percentage, Saves 1953 - Saves
Statistics: RL 2.83 ERA, 10.4 R/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9 PROJ 4.56 ERA, 11.7 R/9, 4.4 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
Ellis Kinder didn't begin his major league career until the ripe age of 31, and has the rare achievement of both saving and winning 200 games. A closer by trade Kinder will be starting for the Nationals. His nickname was "Old Folks" for obvious reasons.
Career: 157-135, 3.72 ERA, 2542.0 IP, 2736 H, 602 K
Leaderboard: 1928 - Shutouts 1929 - WHIP, Complete Games 1931 - Complete Games 1932 - Complete Games 1933 - Walks per 9 Innings Pitched 1936 - Walks per 9 Innings Pitched
Statistics: RL 3.55 ERA, 10.5 R/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9 PROJ 4.65 ERA, 11.7 R/9, 3.6 K/9, 1.5 HR/9
A former pitcher turned infielder because of his hitting ability, was turned back to pitching in time to enjoy a fine career. Lucas is often remember only for his hitting ability, but had a stretch in the early 1930's as one of the best control pitchers in the game.
Starting Pitcher 5- Dizzy Dean Career: 150-83, 3.02 ERA, 1967.3 IP, 1919 H, 1163 K
Leaderboard: 1932 - Strikeouts per 9 Innings, Strikeouts, Shutouts 1933 - Strikeouts per 9 Innings, Strikeouts, Complete Games 1934 - Wins, Winning Percentage, Strikeouts, Shutouts 1935 - Wins, Strikeouts, Complete Games 1936 - Saves, Complete Games
Statistics: RL 2.93 ERA, 10.4 R/9, 8.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9 PROJ 4.85 ERA, 11.5 R/9, 5.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
Hall of Famer Jay Hanna "Dizzy" Dean, the brash Cardinals fireballer, burst upon the big league scene in 1932 and averaged 24 wins over his first five full campaigns. A winner of four consecutive National League strikeout crowns, "Diz" was 30-7 in 1934 (the last National League pitcher to record 30 wins) when he and his brother Paul led the "Gashouse Gang" to the World Championship.
Career: 86-81, 3.57 ERA, 1291.3 IP, 1233 H, 1030 K
Leaderboard: 1987 - Winning Percentage
Statistics: RL 3.06 ERA, 9.4 R/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9 PROJ 4.17 ERA, 11.8 R/9, 5.2 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
Originally a third basemen, Aguilera turned into one of the top closers in the game for many years. After trying life in baseball at third, Aguilera was a starter for 4 years before trying closing mid-way between the 1989 season. During the year he was traded to the Minnesota Twins, and went on to record 30+ saves in 5 of the next 6 years.
Career: 57-42, 3.21 ERA, 732.7 IP, 686 H, 533 K
Leaderboard: 1987 - Winning Percentage
Statistics: RL 3.06 ERA, 9.4 R/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9 PROJ 4.71 ERA, 12.4 R/9, 4.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
A relative unknown, Henneman was the Detroit Tigers closer during most of his career. In total he recorded seven 20+ save seasons, and is best remembered for his 1.87 ERA over 91 innings in 1988.
Career: 105-103, 3.24 ERA, 1694.0 IP, 1522 H, 1164 K
Leaderboard: 1958 - Earned Run Average 1961 - Saves 1963 - Saves
Statistics: RL 3.06 ERA, 9.4 R/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9 PROJ 4.33 ERA, 12.2 R/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
The first 7 years of Stu Miller's career was spent as a below average starter. Then, in 1959 the San Francisco Giants tried him out of the bullpen and excelled for the next 9 years, topping out with a superb ERA of 1.89 at the age of 37 in 1965 (183 ERA+).
Special thanks to the following sources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page http://www.baseball-reference.com http://www.baseballlibrary.com http://www.baseballhalloffame.org
Nationals Official Press Release The Washington Nationals are pleased to announce the bidding war for Lou Gehrig is finally over and the First Basemen will be traded immediately pending standard transaction approval. After a long an exhaustive search for which 8 different teams submitted serious offers, the process is finally over. To avoid accusations of miss propriety and/or incompetence on the part of the Nationals ownership, we would like to share the methodology we employed:
In all, throughout the negotiations a grand total of 227 sims were run over the course of the past few days. This includes baseline sims to judge the Nationals themselves, and scores of sims to look at individual player records and trends. The final decision was based upon 4 areas of input: Best overall run differential, best raw stats for individual pitchers and hitters, least amount needed to give up in return.
Individual player value was determined by combining the results of these sims into a single average stat line using Microsoft Access and Microsoft Excel. Defensive value of each trade offer was determined by reviewing pitcher ERA's, of those not to be traded in any proposal, and comparing them across offers. We can not express how important a factor defense turned out to be, as it was more important than either hitting or pitching. Good hitting, great fielding infielders are not easy to find.
There were serious offers with star studded names, but many of those required significant players in return in addition to Gehrig.
The summary of the best 4 offers:
As you can see, one stands out above all of he rest.
We would now like to congratulate the St. Louis Stars ownership on the acquisition of the most prolific hitting first basemen in the history of our glorious game. The Stars initial offer was by the worst of the 4 finalists, but General Manger and Owner Steven Nathan hit a home run at the last possible minute. While the names may not be elite, the results are unquestionable. Introducing the newest members of the "No Name Nationals"...
In return for Gehrig, the Nationals will receive:
Dizzy Dean (2.93 ERA, 10.4 R/9, 0.8 HR/9) Ron Santo (.276 / .372 / .473, Ex Defense at 3B) Charlie Gehringer (.299 / .369 / .470, Vg Defense at 2B) Norm Cash (.276 / .373 / .485, Vg Defense at 1B) Gil Hodges (.268 / .353 / .473, Vg Defense at 1B) Ed Stone (.287 / .367 / .493, Vg Defense in RF, LF)
The Nationals would like to thank all owners who actively participated in the negotiation process. It was tiresome and sometimes frustrating, and for that we offer our utmost thanks for sticking with us.
Our legal team advised ownership to make all of our back-up documentation to our analysis available upon request.
Good luck to all, Louis Poulas
Front Office Ponders League Viability
December 30, Washington, DC In a stunning 13-8 vote, the DMB-ATL League Ownership Committee overturned the Nationals trade of Lou Gehrig to the St. Louis Stars citing the trade was "dangerously one-sided". The trade veto leaves both the Nationals and Stars scrambling to fill vacancies thought covered, and is an unfitting end to a week in which neither team could make many significant roster moves as the vote was still open.
In the case of the Nationals, the following positions are now open, in what Owner Lou Poulas mockingly claims a "dangerously lopsided" roster: Left Field, Third Base, 3rd Starter, #1 Reliever. With no real options, the Nationals are actively seeking other trade options, but do admit that they may have to start the season with their current roster in place and look towards 2007.
The following prepared statement was given by Poulas, minutes after the decision was announced:
Other league owners could not immediately be reached for comment, but the general feeling is that they believe Poulas to be a "blowhard" and out of touch with the current times. One thing is for certain however, the Nationals will have less wins in 2006 because of the veto.
The chart below depicts the chaotic off-season the Nationals have had. Only Right Field, manned by the ever stoic Charlie Keller, Rick Aguilera out of the pen, and now First Base with Lou Gehrig has not had churn.
"Big Train" Railroaded, Sent West to St. Louis Washington DC (Reuters) December 14, 2005
In one of the most secretive trade negotiations of all time, Washington Nationals premier starter, Walter Johnson, has been traded to the St. Louis Stars of the Legends League. Uproar in D.C. has reach a fever pitch, with fans and local sports pundits alike screaming for the resignation of General Manager (and owner, and coach, and beer guy) Lou Poulas.
The Big Train was loved almost unanimously, and general consensus is the Nationals did not receive enough in return. Last year in the ATL Johnson was one of the best pitchers in the league with a 3.15 ERA and gave up only 201 Hits in 240 Innings Pitched. Unsubstantiated rumors have been circulating the last few weeks about a supposed rift between Poulas and Johnson over a perceived lack of effort on the part of the starter during Game 1 of last seasons Division Series. Johnson was the loser 5-2 against the San Francisco Seals and the Nationals were easily swept in the next two games - an embarrassing fact that Poulas has gone out of his way to talk about to the media during the off-season.
Almost lost in the shuffle is that the Nationals star reliever, Kent Tekulve, was also included in the trade. Tekulve was brilliant last year in the setup role (2.80 ERA, 61 Innings) and was slated to be this years full time closer. In return, St. Louis will send reliever turned starter Ellis Kinder and Babe Adams. Adams will immediately assume #1 starter responsibility and Kinder will most likely fall to the 3rd starter role behind recently acquired Bret Saberhagen.
Adams returns to Washington after being traded for Rube Foster last April. Normally quite reserved, he was a little flabbergasted to be back on the DC squad, "I was run out of town last April because of a bad start or two, and now they want me back for the Big Train! Lou is a nice guy and all, but I am not sure he has a game plan." Adams added a bit later, "Plus, he moved the team to that God awful American League Park. My earned run average will be lucky to below 5. Ugh. If it wasn't for the damned reserve clause, I would hold out to go back home to Pittsburgh."
Poulas faces an uphill climb in the coming weeks prior to the start of the season. While active on the trade market, many of his moves have been questioned. Gone are several of last years starters who played a prominent role on the playoff team - Bruce Sutter, Chino Smith, John McGraw, and Fred McGriff all parted before this trade.
Marquee value has been sent back in the form of Lou Gehrig and Jesse Burkett but many of the new players are relatively obscure -Cal McVey, Lip Pike, Red Smith, Bobby Rose, Bret Saberhagen, Stu Miller, and Todd Jones all will play prominent roles in the upcoming season.
Leaving American League Park last night, Poulas did stop to make a statement, "The move American League Park was a calculated risk. Her home run prowess gives the Nationals an aspect to the game that no other team in the entire league has. It is my job to exploit this aspect and turn it into an advantage for the home team. This sometimes means making hard decisions and trading away superstar names for lesser known quantities that have the proper combination of skills and stats that will help turn the Nationals into perennial contenders for the Championship."
One of Poulas' assistants, who wished to remain nameless, explained, "In a Home Run ballpark all that matters are offensive players who can hit the long ball (see Lou Gehrig), and pitchers who keep the ball down (see Adams, Kinder, Saberhagen, etc.). I for one think these moves are brilliant."
Only time will tell if any of these moves will pan out.
Notes On Barney: - Ty Cobb is supposed to have said that his greatest embarrassment was batting against Walter Johnson on a dark day in Washington. - Contemporaries recalled his pitches as nearly invisible, arriving with a "swoosh" and smashing into the catcher's mitt like a thunderclap.
Quotes on Barney - "He's got a gun concealed about his person. They can't tell me he throws them balls with his arm." - Ring Lardner - "His fastball looked about the size of a watermelon seed and it hissed at you as it passed." - Ty Cobb - "Just speed, raw speed, blinding speed, too much speed." - Ty Cobb - "Let there be no misunderstanding, no delusion, that Walter Johnson is, or was, a baseball legend. Not only inaccurate is that description, it demeans him." - Shirley Povich - "That young fellow is another Cy Young. I never saw a kid with more than he displayed. Of course, he is still green, but when he has a little experience he should be one of the greatest pitchers that ever broke into the game. He has terrific speed and a motion which does not put much strain on his arm and this will all improve as he goes along." - Addie Joss
December 8, 2005 - Nationals News A/P Staff
The Washington Nationals Roster is shaping up to be an offensive juggernaut. Focusing on offense during the early rounds of the draft has reportedly paid off considerably, and the squad has the potential to score 950+ runs during the upcoming season. That is an impressive figure considering the 154 game schedule used in the DMB-ATL
Yes, the homer happy American league park has a lot to do with it, but these hitters are exceeding even the wildest expectations of fans and coaches alike. Several sims have been run and the consensus is coming out with the following lineup and projection for the Poulas' squad:
2B, Larry Doyle .290 / .350 / .480, .830 OPS, 17 HR, 110 R, 70 RBI C, Cal McVey .335 / .360 / .570, .930 OPS, 23 HR, 102 R, 80 RBI LF, Jesse Burkett .325 / .405 / .490, .895 OPS, 23 HR, 120 R, 105 RBI 1B, Lou Gehrig .350 / .430 / .730, 1.160 OPS, 55 HR, 150 R, 155 RBI RF, Charlie Keller .270 / .360 / .525, .885 OPS, 40 HR, 110 R, 125 RBI CF, Lip Pike .315 / .360 / .560, .920 OPS, 21 HR, 100 R, 105 RBI SS, George Davis .284 / .365 / .460, .825 OPS, 24 HR, 85 R, 105 RBI 3B, Tony Phillips .247 / .350 / .375, .725 OPS, 15 HR, 70 R, 55 RBI
The bench looks to be a powerful addition as well:
2B, Bobby Rose .305 / .385 / .505, .890 OPS, 105 AB C, Tom Haller .310 / .370 / .470, .840 OPS, 150 AB 3B, Red Smith .285 / .350 / .385, .735 OPS, 100 AB
When asked to comment, owner and operator Lou Poulas blushed, then smiled and said, "To think of a lineup that features five 100 RBI men that is anchored by one of the three premier sluggers in the game, well, it is just amazing. The entire lineup save the pitcher and #8 hitter have at least an .800 OPS. That is unheard of. I can't wait to start"
However, not all news is good news at camp. Rumors of coach Poulas losing at least 1/3 of his hairline trying to figure out the pitching staff are said to be accurate, if not underestimated. The Nationals have a serious problem both with the starting staff and the bullpen.
There are about 7 starters vying for the rotation, during the trial sim period they posted average ERA's of the following:
4.50 - Walter Johnson 4.80 - Rube Foster 5.00 - Mutsuo Minagawa 5.75 - Marty Pattin 5.85 - Bryn Smith 7.00 - Bucky Walters 6.50 - Jack Quinn
The bullpen is no better. Aside from Kent Tekulve (3.50 ERA) in the closer role, everything else is up for grabs.
Short Relievers: 5.50 - Rick Aguilera 5.15 - Mitsuhiro Adachi 6.75 - Todd Jones 4.90 - Ken Raffensberger
Long Relievers: 8.50 - Taigen Kaku 7.00 - Bucky Walters 5.50 - Jeff Fassero 6.00 - Mel Harder
One aspect of the Washington Nationals is set in stone however - the fans will get a show when the come to the park. Average runs per game have been over 12!
December 02, 2005
As we have seen with many of the Owners in the DMBATL, Nationals Team President Lou Poulas is extremely excited about the first few rounds of the December 2005 Draft. The Nationals ended last year with one of the best pitching staffs in the league, but couldn't hit their way out of a paper bag and fell well short of competing in the first round of the playoffs.
The challenge - keep the core pitching staff while completely revamping the lineup. To do this, the Nationals chose to drop most of the players on the existing roster and try to bolster the team through the draft. The main components remaining on the team:
#1 SP - Walter Johnson #2 SP - Rube Foster #3 SP - Mutso Minagawa
CL - Bruce Sutter SE - Rick Aguilera SE - Kent Tekulve
LF - Charlier Keller CF - Fred Lynn RF - Chino Smith 1B - Fred McGriff 2B - Larry Doyle SS - George Davis 3B - John McGraw
McGraw, Smith, and Sutter found themselves in other uniforms before Round 1 was over and the rebuilding had begun. Through the draft and trades, the following changes have been made to date, with updated projections listed:
Projected Starters - Batters
As you can see - according to the Nationals projections anyway - the only position that suffered has been 3B with John McGraw.
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