You Only THINK You're Having a Bad Day: The Effects of a Nuclear Attack on Austin, TX

February 27, 2002

CLICK HERE to view a 2007 supplement to this essay, containing additional information on how to survive a nuclear attack.

The next time you think you're having a bad day, imagine driving along Ben White, glancing toward the capitol building, and seeing a fiery mushroom cloud rising a couple of thousand feet above where downtown previously stood. That's the best case scenario for the detonation of a nuclear weapon in Austin, Texas. In the worst case scenario, you're driving along Ben White and notice a blinding white flash, only a couple of seconds before your car melts and your flesh disintegrates. Nuclear bombs have been built in all shapes in sizes. The smallest, built by the U.S. in the early 1960s, had a blast force equal to 0.1 kilotons of TNT (roughly twice as powerful as the bomb that destroyed the Oklahoma City federal building). The largest, built by the Soviet Union during the Cold War, had a blast force equal to 100 megatons of TNT (capable of leveling Travis County). Because modern missile guidance technology has made it easier to place intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM's) closer to their intended targets, large (over 1 megaton) warheads are seldom utilized anymore. Although there is still a threat of an intercontinental nuclear exchange with modern nuclear superpowers, such as China and some nations of the former Soviet Union, most experts believe the greatest threat is the possibility of rogue nations or terrorist organizations acquiring former Soviet nuclear weapons, either through theft or covert arms sales. One of the most publicized threats if from so-called "suitcase nukes"--1 kiloton (less than 1/15 as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb) nuclear bombs that can be housed inside a large briefcase style suitcase. In the 1990s, reports indicated that as many as 100 or more such suitcase nukes were missing from the former Soviet Union. Other reports made allegations that these weapons were sold to terrorist organizations (including the al Quaeda). Besides the threat of "misplaced" Soviet nuclear weapons, it has become abundantly clear that rogue dictators and terrorist leaders, such as Sadam Hussein and Osama bin Laden, have been trying for years to acquire the technology and weapons grade plutonium needed to build nuclear weapons. Some analysts, while not believing Iraq possesses any stolen nuclear weapons, believe the country may develop its own nuclear capabilities by the end of this year. Regardless of your opinion or knowledge of the Cold War arms race or terrorist acquisitions of weapons of mass destruction, every responsible American should have a basic understanding of the different threats posed by nuclear weapons. The obvious immediate dangers from a nuclear blast include extreme heat, extremely high winds, and extreme radiation exposure. The less obvious immediate dangers include flash blindness and electromagnetic pulse. Flash blindness is a temporary or permanent (depending on severity) partial or total blindness caused by the bright flash associated with a nuclear blast. Electromagnetic pulse (EMP) is an electromagnetic wave that shorts out electrical devices in its path. The exact effects of EMP from a nuclear blast are not known. For instance, it is debated whether or not cars will be rendered useless. While most studies claim that car, especially newer (post mid-1980s) cars which utilize microchips, will be rendered dead on the spot, some sources claim that most cars will be protected by their rubber tires, much the same way they are protected from lightning. The most obvious residual effect of a nuclear blast is fallout exposure. Fallout is greatest when a nuclear bomb is detonated on the ground; however, blast force is greatest when the bomb is detonated a few thousand feet above the ground, so the type of detonation depends on the desired effect (whether the instigator wants a larger blast or more fallout.) Less obvious than direct fallout exposure is fallout contamination of soil and drinking water, leading to contaminated crops, meat, and milk. One component of nuclear fallout is radioactive iodine. Radioactive iodine is quickly absorbed by the human thyroid gland and can lead to thyroid cancer and other medical problems. It is, in theory, possible to build a nuclear bomb capable of destroying all life on earth (by encasing it in Cobalt-59, an isotope capable of maintaining deadly levels of radiation for many, many years); however, there has never been any report of such a bomb being built. A more likely danger is a nuclear winter--a widely accepted theory that large amounts of debris and smoke from thousands of acres of city and forest fires from a massive nuclear exchange would lead to a virtual blackout of the sun, causing the earth's temperatures to drop substantially, creating a "nuclear winter." Despite the possibility of a "doomsday bomb" or a "nuclear winter," the truth is that most nuclear attacks would be of a much smaller scale and, most importantly, survivable. Assuming you are not at ground zero, there are numerous steps that can be taken to survive a nuclear attack. If you have advanced warning, a well constructed shelter can protect you from high winds and debris and moderate doses of heat and radiation, relatively close to ground zero. When possible, taking appropriate shelter or simply avoiding looking directly at a nuclear blast can prevent flash blindness. A "Faraday Box" (an electrically conductive container lined with an insulating material--such as aluminum foil wrapped around cardboard) can protect electrical items from EMP. Proper shelter can provide protection from radioactive fallout. Taking daily doses of Potassium Iodate or Potassium Iodide can prevent a person's thyroid gland from absorbing radioactive iodine. Storing small quantities of nonperishable food and bottled water can prevent you from having to risk fallout exposure to procure sustenance. Crackers, peanut butter, hard candy, beef jerky, and canned soup are all good things to have. The most important thing you can have is knowledge. My online Treatments For Potential Terrorist Weapons handbook explains how to protect yourself from certain aspects of a nuclear blast (The handbook's information on radiation exposure is included at the end of this email-- CLICK HERE to view the handbook). The handbook also gives advice for treating biological and chemical weapons. Another good thing to know are basic minimum safe distance guidelines in relation to where you live. That is why I have provided the diagrams below. They predict the effects of different types of nuclear blasts centered in front of the Texas state capitol building. If you're asking yourself why Austin would ever be the target of a nuclear attack, consider these things:

1. TERRORIST STATEMENT -- Texas is the second largest state. Our current president was previously a resident of Austin. Texas is his home state--He was even the governor here. He still has a daughter (and likely other friends and family) living in Austin. Setting off a nuclear weapon in Austin, TX would make a strong statement, in the minds of terrorists, to both the current presidential administration and the American people.

2. TACTICAL STRIKE -- If your goal is to strike tactical targets in the U.S., state capitols are a good place to start. Destroying state capitols destroys state infrastructure, thereby destroying our nation's infrastructure. Without capitol cities, states would be forced into a state of federal control, or marital law. In effect, taking out capitol cities creates a nationwide war zone.

3. RANDOM TERROR -- Everybody is watching New York City and Los Angeles, but setting off a suitcase nuke in Austin, TX could do almost as much damage. It's a good political and tactical target, and it's not under nearly as tight scrutiny. Texas is a border state--A bomb the size of a suitcase could be slipped across the Mexican border and into Austin within a matter of a few hours, thereby, severely limiting the terrorists' risk of being caught before completing their mission.

4. CENTRALLY LOCATED -- The effects of an attack on Austin would spill into Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston.

5. NEARBY ATTACKS -- Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, Fort Hood, and Dyes Air Force Base are all potential targets. An attack at one of these locations would have substantial ramifications (ranging from fallout to refugees) in Austin.

This is a lot of information to take in, but if you've read it all the way through, you're better educated and better prepared than you were before. Now, check out the diagrams below, read the handbook information included after that, and take a minute to think about what you'll do if there is ever (God forbid) an attack. When you were a kid, you probably had a fire safety lesson at school, and you were told to formulate a plan for getting out of your house in the event of a fire. This is no different. Know how long you have to take cover, where you need to go, what you need to take, and how long you need to stay there. It could safe your life. The more you know....

Detonation of a 1 Kiloton Nuclear "Suitcase" Bomb in Front of the Texas State Capitol Building

COLOR KEY:

Green -- Blast would cause lethal third degree burns out to approximately 0.40 miles.
Red -- Blast would cause a 5 psi (pounds per square inch) overpressure, destroying virtually everything, out to approximately 0.43 miles.
Blue -- Blast would emit a lethal 500 rem* radiation dose out to approximately 0.84 miles.
Black -- Outside of the black area (one mile) is the minimum safe distance to survive the initial blast.

*Rem: Stands for "roentgen equivalent man." It is a measurement used to quantify the amount of radiation that will produce certain biological effects.

Potential Radioactive Fallout from the Detonation of a 1 Kiloton Nuclear "Suitcase" Bomb in Front of the Texas State Capitol Building

COLOR KEY:

Red -- Anybody within a 20 mile radius of the blast would be at risk of receiving lethal doses of radioactive fallout and would need to find adequate shelter within one hour of the initial blast.
Black -- Anybody between 20 and 40 miles from the initial blast would be at risk of receiving dangerous doses of radioactive fallout and would need to find adequate shelter within one hour of the initial blast.

Actual fallout patterns would depend on the prevailing winds.

Pressure Damage from the Surface Detonation of a 1 Megaton Nuclear Warhead in Front of the Texas State Capitol Building

KEY:

12 psi
Radius: 1.7 miles
[Note: The outside edge of this shaded area represents the 12 psi ring. Blast pressure within the ring is greater than 12 psi; blast pressure outside the ring is less than 12 psi.]
At the center of the ring lies a crater 200 feet deep and 1000 feet in diameter. The rim of this crater is 1,000 feet wide and is composed of highly radioactive soil and debris. Nothing recognizable remains within about 3,200 feet (0.6 miles) from the center, except, perhaps, the remains of some buildings' foundations. At 1.7 miles, only some of the strongest buildings -- those made of reinforced, poured concrete -- are still standing. Ninety-eight percent of the population in this area are dead.

5 psi
Radius: 2.7 miles
Virtually everything is destroyed between the 12 and 5 psi rings. The walls of typical multistory buildings, including apartment buildings, have been completely blown out. The bare, structural skeletons of more and more buildings rise above the debris as you approach the 5 psi ring. Single-family residences within this area have been completely blown away -- only their foundations remain. Fifty percent of the population between the 12 and 5 psi rings are dead. Forty percent are injured.

2 psi
Radius: 4.7 miles
Any single-family residences that have not been completely destroyed are heavily damaged. The windows of office buildings have been blown away, as have some of their walls. Everything on these buildings' upper floors, including the people who were working there, are thrown onto the street. Substantial debris clutters the entire area. Five percent of the population between the 5 and 2 psi rings are dead. Forty-five percent are injured.

1 psi
Radius: 7.4 miles
Residences are moderately damaged. Commercial buildings have sustained minimal damage. Twenty-five percent of the population between the 2 and 1 psi rings have been injured, mainly by flying glass and debris. Many others have been injured from thermal radiation -- the heat generated by the blast. The remaining seventy-five percent are unhurt.

Potential Radioactive Fallout from the Surface Detonation of a 1 Megaton Nuclear Warhead in Front of the Texas State Capitol Building

ASSUMPTIONS:

Wind speed: 15 mph
Wind direction: due east
Time frame: 7 days

KEY:

3,000 Rem
Distance: 30 miles
Much more than a lethal dose of radiation. Death can occur within hours of exposure. About ten years will need to pass before levels of radioactivity in this area drop low enough to be considered safe, by U.S. peacetime standards.

900 Rem
Distance: 90 miles
A lethal dose of radiation. Death occurs from two to fourteen days.

300 Rem
Distance: 160 miles
Causes extensive internal damage, including harm to nerve cells and the cells that line the digestive tract. Also results in a loss of white blood cells and temporary hair loss.

90 Rem
Distance: 250 miles
No immediate harmful effects, but does result in a temporary decrease in white blood cells. Two to three years will need to pass before radioactivity levels in this area drop low enough to be considered safe, by U.S. peacetime standards.

Pressure Damage from the Aerial Detonation of a 25 Megaton Nuclear Warhead over the Texas State Capitol Building

KEY:

12 psi
Radius: 6.5 miles
[Note: The outside edge of this shaded area represents the 12 psi ring. Blast pressure within the ring is greater than 12 psi; blast pressure outside the ring is less than 12 psi.]
The remains of some buildings' foundations are visible. Some of the strongest buildings -- those made of reinforced, poured concrete -- are still standing. Ninety-eight percent of the population within this area are dead.

5 psi
Radius: 10.7 miles
Virtually everything is destroyed between the 12 and 5 psi rings. The walls of typical multistory buildings, including apartment buildings, are completely blown out. As you move from the center toward the 5 psi ring there are more structural skeletons of buildings standing. Single-family residences within this area have been completely blown away -- only their foundations remain. Fifty percent of the population between the 12 and 5 psi rings are dead. Forty percent are injured.

2 psi
Radius: 20 miles
Any single-family residences that are not completely destroyed are heavily damaged. The windows of office buildings have been blown away, as have some of their walls. Everything on these buildings' upper floors, including the people who were working there, are thrown onto the street. Substantial debris clutters the entire area. Five percent of the population between the 5 and 2 psi rings are dead. Forty-five percent are injured.

1 psi
Radius: 30.4 miles
Residences are moderately damaged. Commercial buildings have sustained minimal damage. Twenty-five percent of the population between the 2 and 1 psi rings are injured, mainly by flying glass and debris. Many others have been injured from thermal radiation -- the heat generated by the blast. The remaining seventy-five percent are unhurt.

Excerpt from my Treatments for Potential Terrorist Weapons handbook:

RADIATION - Emitted as a result of a nuclear explosion or a meltdown (potentially caused by a terrorist attack) at a nuclear power plant.

Symptoms of radiation poisoning: Nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, fever, loss of appetite, malaise, hair loss, and hemorrhaging. In moderate cases, recovery generally occurs in about 3 months, if there are no complications. Victims who experience the first symptoms of radiation poisoning within four hours after exposure will most likely die within 30 days.

Treatment: The best defense against radiation is to avoid exposure, either by maintaining a safe distance from the source of radiation or by using adequate shielding; however, there are potential situations where mild to moderate levels of exposure to radioactive fallout are unavoidable. In these situations, Potassium Iodide or Potassium Iodate can be taken during exposure to protect your thyroid gland from absorbing radioactive iodine (causing thyroid cancer). Potassium Iodide and Potassium Iodate protect ONLY the thyroid gland and will NOT prevent radiation poisoning. NOTE: Iodized salt is not a sufficient source of iodine to prevent absorption of radioactive iodine by the thyroid gland, and it cannot be safely taken in sufficient quantities to provide such protection. Iodine water purification tablets are poisonous when ingested in their solid form; therefore, they should never be taken as a source of iodine. Iodine antiseptic solutions are also poisonous when ingested; however, some iodine may be safely absorbed through the skin if these antiseptic solutions are applied externally, in generous quantities.

Any exposure to radioactive fallout, such as any trip outside for the first two weeks following a nuclear disaster, should be immediately followed by decontamination (using water or, preferably, soap and water) of exposed skin, clothes, tools, etc. Never bring contaminated clothing or supplies into a fallout shelter. When forced to venture outside during the first month following a nuclear blast, wearing simple protective gear, such as raincoats, garbage bags, etc., and removing this gear before entering the shelter, will help prevent contamination.

If possible, avoid looking directly at a nuclear blast. The bright flash of a nuclear blast may cause temporary or permanent "flash blindness." The severity of "flash blindness" depends primarily on the victim's proximity to the blast.

Approximate Required Thickness of Shielding Materials for Adequate Protection from Radioactive Fallout:

Material	Thickness (in inches)
Lead	5
Iron	8.5
Steel	8.5
Brick	24
Concrete	26.5
Dirt	39.5
Water	39.5
Ice	81.5
Wood	105.5
Snow	242.5

Fallout (Radiation) Shelters (in order of preference and effectiveness):

1. Underground shelter covered by at least 3 feet of dirt or 2 feet of concrete.
2. Cave or tunnels covered by at least 3 feet of dirt.
3. Storm or storage cellar.
4. Culvert (drainage crossing under a road).
5. Basement.
6. Abandoned concrete or stone building.

Radioactive Fallout Exposure Table:

Days after Fallout Release	Acceptable Exposure Times
1-6	Complete isolation in protective shelter.*
*	One short exposure, not to exceed 30 minutes, can be performed on or after the third day, to procure water, if none is available in the shelter.
7	One exposure of not more than 30 minutes.
8	One exposure of not more than 1 hour.
9-12	Exposure of 2-4 hours/day.
13-30	Normal exposure while awake. Continue to sleep in protective shelter.

Minimum Safe Distances (MSD) From Ground Zero (source of a nuclear blast):

For these purposes, "Minimum Safe Distance" refers to the minimum distance from a nuclear blast that a person could reasonably expect to survive without taking special precautions. Minimum safe distance from a nuclear blast is determined by factors such as the size of the bomb detonated, the proximity of the bomb to the ground at the time of detonation, and wind direction. Minimum safe distance from a terrorist bomb would most likely be much shorter than the MSD from a 1-megaton Soviet Cold War bomb or even the 14-kiloton bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima, since a terrorist bomb would most likely be much less powerful (probably closer to 1-kiloton than 1-megaton). No MSD can serve as a catchall for all scenarios. Treating every threat as if it were a 50-megaton bomb could lead to evacuees fleeing so far from one target that they end up too close to another target. Treating every threat as if it were a 1-kiloton suitcase nuke could place evacuees well within the kill zone of a 1-megaton bomb. If the threat is known to be of the nature of a suitcase nuke, the minimum safe distances could be as short as 1 mile from ground zero to survive the initial blast and 50 miles to survive the radioactive fallout. If the nature of the threat is unknown, the distances must be increased. A good MINIMUM SAFE DISTANCE RULE OF THUMB, when dealing with an unknown threat, is 10 miles from ground zero to survive the initial blast and 300 miles to survive the radioactive fallout--These are the estimated minimum safe distances from the surface detonation of a 1-megaton nuclear bomb.

Potassium Iodide:

Adults and adolescents 12 years and older - 130 mg/day for 15-85 days.

Children 3 to 12 years - 65 mg/day for 15-85 days.

Infants 1 month to 3 years - 32 mg/day for 15-85 days.

Newborns to 1 month - 16 mg/day for no less than 15 days. Potassium Iodide can be administered to a newborn for up to 85 days, but the dosage should be increased to 32 mg/day when the newborn reaches 1 month of age.

Potassium Iodate:

(Preferred over Potassium Iodide for better taste and longer shelf life)

Adults and adolescents 12 years and older - 170 mg/day for 15-85 days.

Children 3 to 12 years - 85 mg/day for 15-85 days.

Infants 1 month to 3 years - 43 mg/day for 15-85 days.

Newborns to 1 month - 22 mg/day for no less than 15 days. Potassium Iodate can be administered to a newborn for up to 85 days, but the dosage should be increased to 43 mg/day when the newborn reaches 1 month of age.

YOU CAN LEARN MORE ABOUT POTASSIUM IODIDE AND POTASSIUM IODATE AND PURCHASE POTASSIUM IODATE ONLINE AT http://www.medicalcorps.com/

YOU CAN PURCHASE RADIATION DETECTION AND MONITORING EQUIPMENT AT http://www.ki4u.com/products1.htm

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SURVIVING A NUCLEAR DISASTER CAN BE FOUND AT http://www.ki4u.com AND http://oism.org/nwss/s73p904.htm AND http://www.wilderness-survival.net/hazards-1.php AND http://oism.org/nwss/s73p904.htm AND http://www.bt.cdc.gov/radiation/index.asp</

SEEK PROFESSIONAL MEDICAL ADVICE BEFORE TAKING ANY MEDICATION!

DO NOT RELY ON ANY DATA ON THIS PAGE!

THIS DATA HAS BEEN ACCUMULATED FROM UNVERIFIED SECONDARY SOURCES!

Sources for this article include:

Nuclear Blast Mapper

Nuclear War Survival Skills

The Davy Crockett and the W54 Warhead

The Junk Science Bug-Out Guide: What to do when it's time to get out of town!

Does Osama Have a Nuclear Bomb?

Suitcase Nuclear Devices

Our Worst Nightmare

MedicalCorps.com

Wilderness Survival: Survival in Nuclear Warfare

The Destructive Effects of a Nuclear Suitcase Bomb

More useful sites:

Nuclear Weapons Articles on Nuclearfiles.org

Do Terrorists Really Have Nukes Here?

CLICK HERE to learn about TREATMENTS FOR POTENTIAL TERRORIST WEAPONS.

CLICK HERE to learn how to prepare by making your own B.O.B.s.

CLICK HERE to visit the National Terror Alert Resource Center for more preparedness information.

CLICK HERE to visit www.ready.gov and see what the United States government recommends you do to prepare for the possibility of a terrorist attack.

CLICK HERE to go to civiliangasmasks.com.

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