AMEX- ( AAC )
NOVEMBER 21, 2000 at $3.75
Just Issued: Strong "BUY" Rating and 100%+ Price Target from the desk of Scott S. Fraser, Editor of The Natural Contrarian!
Read the entire recommendation below:
This publication was issued from the desk of Scott S. Fraser, Editor of The Natural Contrarian:
AbleAuctions.com (AAC: AMEX) is the "#1 Stock Pick" of Scott Fraser, editor of the prestigious The Natural Contrarian investment publication, with a near-term price target of over $8.00 per share - a 100% premium to current share price levels.
AbleAuctions.com (AAC: AMEX) has been picked by the independent editor, Scott Fraser, as his "single biggest commerce-infrastructure stock of the year."
* AbleAuctions.com (AAC: AMEX) revenues could increase eight-fold by fiscal year-end
* AAC has wider percentage profit margins than eBay, Amazon, and Yahoo!
* AbleAuction's public float is negligible
* Revenues could expand to 40% of its current market capitalization of $85 million before June 2001
* The most potentially lucrative business model of virtually any e-business
* Total sales for the industry this year will be over $28 billion
* Forrester Research estimates the industry will grow to $65 billion by 2002
* AbleAuction's average profit margin is over 50% of sale values
* Revenues were just over $4.5 million in the first six months of 2000
* Major potential acquisitions could skyrocket its revenues in the near-term
* Dream-team management with proven track record
AbleAuctions.com (AAC: AMEX) has wider percentage profit margins on the goods it auctions than any other major online auction business - including eBay, Yahoo, and Amazon. AbleAuctions has been able to increase its average profit margin to just over 50% of sale values by acquiring ownership of the inventory before the auction commences. The company's acquisition costs are a small fraction of real market value, allowing the company to generate extraordinary margins on its merchandise. Revenues were just over $4.5 million in the first six months of 2000, yet the company's increased acquisition-to-auction pace could multiply its calendar-year revenue total by eight-fold. Based on industry valuations, my conservative price target on AbleAuctions (AAC: AMEX) is over $8 per share.
Buy Alert Initiated with Near-Term Price Target.
From the desk of Scott S. Fraser, Editor of The Natural Contrarian:
"AbleAuctions.com (AAC: AMEX) has established an online auction business model that will attain wider percentage profit margins than eBay, Amazon, and Yahoo! Based on relative market valuations, I project the share price of AbleAuctions (AAC: AMEX) will climb to $8 in the near-term."
To all Natural Contrarian subscribers:
The Streamlined Dot-Com Companies In The Online Auction Industry Will Lead The Next Internet-Stock Frenzy
The valuable lesson learned from the previous Internet-stock frenzy...just before the next one arrives.
Starting with gradually increasing momentum from the middle of 1995 until the point of major meltdown in March 2000, the Internet stock sector's frenzied birth is now complete and part of the historical stock market record. The investing public became mesmerized by the infinite potential of the Internet and reacted with reckless abandon. Any publicly traded company could inspire a sudden influx of buying interest to its shares by simply adding the "dot-com" designation to its corporate logo. The universally accepted projection that the Internet would become a force of expanding dominance on global society justified the knee-jerk reactive buying of any related stock issues.
No one had time for such foolish diversions as considering the existence of fundamental merits. As with every market frenzy that came before, the upward momentum of the Internet sector hit the maximum saturation point and then suddenly reversed direction. A collective perception shift within the investing public caused this drastic reversal. Why were billions of dollars raised and standard triple-digit share price runs attained across the Internet stock sector when only a select few Internet companies could boast of economic business models? The subsequent implosion of equity values across the Internet sector continued through the summer of 2000 until its smoldering arrival at the rock bottom. The first lesson, already learned by misguided individual investors, was that rapid and substantial profits must be taken early because all frenzies switch directions without issuing prior notice. These same investors will learn the second lesson in the next few months because they failed to detect which area of the Internet stock sector is poised to rebound first.
The Online Auction is among the select few profitable endeavors that will drive the future of the "Grand-old" Internet
Through the same progression by which primitive man eventually stopped wildly convulsing at the sight of fire and learned to use it as a tool, 21st century mankind has learned to adopt a pragmatic acceptance of the Internet. Shopping on the Internet is now just another addition to the previous stages in the evolution of modern commerce, such as the use of paper currency, mail order catalogues, and shopping malls. The investing public's unquestioned embrace of any company with a web site but with no foreseeable prospects for profitability is now extinct. The stock market's future attributes of increased share-price values will be based on such fundamental merits as profit margin and industry market share.
During the Internet sector's previous meltdown phase, the list of failed e-business concepts rapidly emerged. Internet-based healthcare companies, such as drkoop.com (KOOP: Nasdaq), dismally joined the ranks of deflated corporate pipe dreams. Did that company and its shareholders really believe that prostate exams and tetanus shots could be delivered online? In contrast, Southwest Airlines (LUV: NYSE) proved that profit margins and customer loyalty could be expanded by cutting cost and retail prices through an effective web site business outlet. The major original equipment manufacturers, such as Sony (SNE: NYSE), were also able to increase sales and profit margins on the Internet. Yet, of all the e-business concepts that passed the profitability filter, the Internet auction industry holds the greatest potential for future growth.
The advent of the Internet propelled the fragmented business of auctions in North America into a $200 billion annual industry. The traditional structure of an auction unites a discounted product inventory from an often-distressed producer/supplier with a bargain-driven group of consumers. The online addition to this structure multiplied the available product inventory and the potential audience of consumers to infinite levels. With the physical limitations of a conventional auction site virtually dissolved, eBay (EBAY: Nasdaq) and Yahoo (YHOO: Nasdaq) became the two leading online auction houses. Each year since 1998, eBay has held over 8,000 online auctions and has sold over $2 billion in merchandise. The total sales for the online auction industry's calendar year 2000 should be over $28 billion. I agree with the Forrester Research estimate that the annual amount of merchandise to be sold through online auctions will reach $65 billion by 2002.
A simply superior business model gives AbleAuctions.com the widest profit margin percentages in its industry. The majority of auction houses, both brick and online versions, position themselves as conduits between the inventory sellers and the bidding buyers. This standard position yields a profit margin between 2% and 5% based on total amount of goods sold. AbleAuctions has been able to increase its average profit margin to just over 50% of sale values by acquiring ownership of the inventory before the auction commences. Because the initial inventory owners are usually in distressed or discount situations, the company's acquisition costs are a small fraction of real market value. AbleAuctions recently acquired Warex Supply and Johnston's Surplus Office Systems. The company plans to auction these inventories into substantial additions to its profit bottom line within this calendar year. Revenues were just over $4.5 million in the first six months of 2000, yet the company's increased acquisition-to-auction pace could multiply its calendar-year revenue total by eight-fold.
While the smoke is still clearing from the drastic implosion of the Internet sector's opening era, I recommend that we start accumulating the quality stock situations while the entire sector is still heavily discounted. My favorite area within this battered sector surrounds the online auction houses. Consider eBay and Yahoo to be your relatively conservative re-accumulation targets. You should compliment your current Internet investment presence with the higher risk/reward ratio of AbleAuctions (AAC: Amex). There are only 19.6 million shares outstanding with a public float of 2.2 million. The shares currently trade near the $4 level, which is an approximate 50% discount from its summer trading range. The company's management has embarked on an aggressive acquisition campaign that is being amply fueled by its high-profit margin auction operations. If this acquisition agenda is completed on schedule within this calendar year, AbleAuction's revenues could expand to 40% of its current market capitalization of $85 million before June 2001. Based on the relative historical record of market valuations of eBAy and Yahoo, an AAC share price of $8 is a conservative target.
Sincerely on the Contrary,
Scott S. Fraser
Editor, The Natural Contrarian
This publication was issued from the desk of Scott S.
Fraser, Editor of The Natural Contrarian:
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