After weeks of uncertainty and back-room dealings, Alun Michael was forced to resign as First Secretary of the Welsh Assembly by a vote of no confidence supported by the three opposition parties. Rhodri Morgan was selected as Labour's alternative nominee for the post and subsequently appointed by the Assembly. 

Coming just a week before the debate on his future, the Ceredigion by-election result was a bitter blow to Alun Michael. All his efforts to bolster his administration and talk-down Labour's disastrous Assembly and Euro election results were reduced to nothing, as Labour slumped to a humiliating fourth place. 

Calling the by-election at this time was a political masterstroke by Plaid Cymru's Cynog Dafis - the result turned out to be the final nail in Alun Michael's political coffin. 

Even the most thick-skinned and slow-witted of Labour's Assembly Members (AMs) could not fail to understand the implications of the result. According to Carole McKeown, the secretary of Ceredigion CLP, 'The message from Ceredigion voters is loud and clear. We, like the rest of Wales, want more socialist policies, with health, education and welfare at the top of the agenda.'

As was reported in the last issue of Socialist Outlook, the issue which finally led to Alun Michael's demise was that of matched funding for Objective 1 projects in Wales.*  The opposition parties gave February 8 as a deadline for Alun Michael to deliver the goods. 

On the day, Michael tried to prevent a vote of no confidence being tabled by tendering his resignation in advance. This caused considerable confusion in the Assembly chamber, since only Michael's closest allies in the Labour Party were aware of his cunning plan. 

It was only on the insistence of the more far-sighted AMs that the vote of no confidence was eventually tabled and passed. Under the Assembly's rules, this left Alun Michael with no option but to resign.

It has now emerged that Michael hoped to prevent the vote being taken by offering his resignation, and then to win renomination as Labour's candidate for First Secretary. 

Unbeknown to him, there was by then a clear majority of Labour Assembly Members in favour of his removal. Out of a group of twenty-eight, Michael was left with five hard-core supporters, with a further eight AMs wavering between supporting him or Rhodri Morgan.

Michael's plan quickly unravelled as it became clear that he would not receive the support of the Labour group. His forced resignation then became permanent, leaving Tony Blair floundering for an explanation as the Tories made the most of his discomfort in Parliament. 

It is clear that Blair had full knowledge of Michael's plan and expected him to survive the day - more evidence, if any were needed, of Blair's contempt for the Welsh Assembly and the democracy of his own party in Wales. 

The role of the Liberals in these events is particularly interesting. Described by one senior Labour figure as 'six characters in search of an author', the Liberal AMs resisted pressure from Charles Kennedy to do a deal with Alun Michael and prop up his administration. 

Their refusal was motivated by a desire not only to get rid of Michael but also to continue attacking Labour in the hope of electoral advantage.

Bolstered by their success in winning Cardiff Central in the Assembly elections, the Liberals hope to further capitalise on the unpopularity of Cardiff's Labour council in the next parliamentary and council elections.

Rhodri Morgan's appointment was greeted with enthusiasm throughout Wales. This reflected both relief at the removal of Michael and the expectations raised by the appointment of his successor. 

An impromptu party organised by Rhodri's Cardiff West constituency was described by one London journalist as 'Blair's nightmare party from hell'. 

Rhodri was quick to make clear that he would not be Blair's puppet in Wales. He also promised to be a tough negotiator in talks with the Treasury on Objective 1 matched funding. One of his first moves was to appoint leading left-winger Sue Essex to his cabinet. He ruled out a coalition with any party for the time being but would not be drawn on possible developments in the future. 

Echoing the call to let a thousand flowers bloom, Rhodri urged Wales to 'uncork the Welsh champagne bottle and let it fizz'. One of Rhodri's undoubted strengths is his willingness to allow debate and discussion to take place, in sharp contrast to Alun Michael's paranoid and anti-democratic style.

One ominous development is the appointment of Gordon Brown to head an inquest into the events which led to Alun Michael's resignation. 

Brown has threatened to 'knock heads together', and his intervention may be an opportunity for the more reactionary forces in Welsh Labour to regroup and stage a fightback. Though, as Rhodri said in response, 'If he gives us the Objective 1 money he can knock as many heads together as he likes'.

While analogies have been drawn between Ken Livingstone and Rhodri Morgan, it is important to understand that Rhodri is no left-winger. He has always been more of a practical than an ideological politician, who earned the respect of the people of Wales by his tenacious exposure of the corruption and ineptitude of Tory quangos such as the Welsh Development Agency.

Rhodri was one of those who promised a 'bonfire of the quangos' before the last general election. Now that he has finally achieved a position of power, he will be expected to deliver.

The significance of Rhodri's victory and the setback that this represents for Blair's plans in Wales, lies as much with the current he represents as with the man himself. Rhodri's supporters are a heterogeneous and growing band of Labour supporters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned with Labour in Government. 

They are equally unhappy with the politics and practice of Welsh Labour in its local government and trade union strongholds. There is a real desire to break with the bureaucratic and paternalistic mentality which so dominates Welsh Labour. 

Rhodri's election can only help to politically clarify this current, as it moves to deal with the real problems and limitations of the Welsh Assembly. This is a process with which all Labour left-wingers should enthusiastically and constructively engage.

A lesson in how not to respond has been provided by the Blaenau Gwent constituency of Llew Smith, the only Campaign Group MP in Wales. They voted to oppose a coalition with the Liberals and also to oppose the use of PR in the Assembly elections. 

Opposition to a coalition with the Liberals is important, and undoubtedly correct, but opposing PR is a big mistake. Can anyone argue that Labour's problems in the Assembly elections were mainly caused by the PR system? 

Can socialists seriously claim that Labour should have won 68% of the seats on the basis of 38% of the vote, as would have occurred under first-past-the-post? If socialism is to regain its democratic credentials, this is not the road to follow.

Events in Wales have implications for the left across the British state. Those on the left who expected opposition to Blair's right-wing government to take the form of growing protest movements and strike action, particularly in the public sector, have so far been disappointed. 

What we have see is a growing dislocation of British politics, as different patterns of voting develop in Scotland, Wales and parts of England. 

This was most clearly illustrated in the Euro elections, which saw the rise of the SNP and Scottish Socialist Party in Scotland, Plaid Cymru in Wales and the Greens and UK Independence Party in the south of England. 

Blair's ongoing problems in Wales and Scotland suggest that this trend will continue. It is also likely that Labour's difficulties will predominantly manifest themselves on the political level, at least in the near future. 

Of course, these political problems do not simply manifest themselves on the periphery, but also at the very centre of the British state. Labour's problems in London are uncannily similar to those in Wales. 

They stem from a broad consciousness among Londoners in opposition to privatisation and in sympathy with the policies of the old GLC, which translates into support for Ken Livingstone. 

While Blair is unlikely to be swept out of office by a growing strike wave, he may yet be undone by political problems of his own making.

* The issue of Objective 1 funding is likely to be debated at this year's Wales Labour Party Conference, to be held at the end of March. At least four constituency parties have submitted contemporary resolutions on the subject : Caerffilli, Bridgend, The Vale of Glamorgan and Cardiff West. The text of the Cardiff West resolution reads: