An elected assembly is now supported by 47 per cent of the Welsh people, according to a recent opinion poll, with 31 per cent against. Support is particularly strong in the Welsh speaking areas and amongst young people. When asked how they would vote in a referendum on such an assembly, 62 per cent of those polled said they would vote in favour with 30 per cent against. These figures are in stark contrast to the result of the 1979 devolution referendum, when only 20 per cent voted in favour.

What lies behind this dramatic turn around? Thirteen years of Conservative rule have certainly had a big impact on the way Welsh workers view Westminster. Wales has never once voted Tory but has had to suffer three consecutive Conservative governments. The consequences of Tory rule have been particularly severe in Wales. The destruction of steel and coal production dealt body blows to the economy and the much vaunted 'recovery' has been largely based on low-waged, low-skill jobs. Many Welsh workers feel increasingly dissatisfied with a British centralism which provides them with little benefit and over which they have no control. This mood is reflected in recent opinion polls: Labour support in Wales is running at 53 per cent but less than half of Labour supporters think their party will win the election.

International factors have also had an influence, particularly the example set by small nations within the Soviet Union in their struggle for independence. The propaganda, if not the reality, of European union also makes greater Welsh autonomy within a federal Europe appear a credible option. But undoubtedly the biggest influence comes from developments in Scotland. When asked if they would support a Welsh assembly if such a body was established in Scotland, the figure in favour jumped to 61 per cent, with only 24 per cent against. Clearly the struggle in Scotland following this election will have a big impact on Welsh politics.

Given their stated support for such an assembly you might expect Labour to be on the offensive on this issue. In fact the opposite is the case. Welsh Secretary David Hunt made clear that the Tories completely oppose any form of devolution and challenged the opposition parties to debate the issue in a special session of the parliamentary Welsh Grand Committee. Plaid Cymru and the Liberals readily accepted but Labour ducked and weaved and in the end declined, making vague excuses about the date. Labour leaders wanted to avoid such a debate because their policy is more of a sop than a real commitment. Neil Kinnock was one of six Welsh Labour MPs who broke ranks to oppose devolution in 1979, using the most reactionary British chauvinist arguments. His latter day conversion is paper thin and an assembly is very low on his list of priorities.

Whilst Scotland is to have an assembly within a year of Labour gaining office the Welsh Assembly will be part of a package of devolution to the English regions enacted within the lifetime of the government. 'We march to the rhythm set by the Welsh people - not to any nationalist stopwatch' was Kinnocks' message to the Welsh Labour Party Conference held at the beginiung of this month. A number of resolutions on an assembly were placed before the conference, including one from Cardiff North which called for it to be established within the first year of a Labour government. Pressure from above ensured that this motion was not discussed. Many people will be justifiably sceptical about Labours' commitment to an assembly, even within five years. Brian Gould has already admitted that elections to an assembly might not occur until a second term.

The main Tory arguments against an assembly are the same as those employed by Kinnock and co in 1979. Firstly, that the union benefits Wales as it receives a net subsidy from England and secondly an assembly would cost too much. The first point is debatable and the second a good argument for getting rid of even the limited democracy which exists under wectern capitalism! The Western Mail, once the mouthpiece of Tory coal owners, now berates the Tories for their attitude. According to the Mail the events in Scotland are 'tinged with revolution' and a gradual devolution of power is necessary to prevent similar developments in Wales. In this the paper speaks for sections of the Welsh state bureaucracy and intelligentsia squeezed by Tory cutbacks in public spending and regional aid and exasperated by Wales' continued drift into the economic periphery of Europe.