Ain't Christmas shopping wonderful? Especially when it is persisting down with rain and you don't have the luxury of a nice air-conditioned shopping mall anywhere close to hand. And how come there seem to be more cars than people. Sometimes parking this week was pretty near impossible, but I couldn't find the numbers of shoppers to match the numbers of cars. The predicted storms hit us first on Thursday and we had to spend most of that night keeping the water at bay. I do hope none of you suffered too badly. I can see much of the next few days spend rebuilding barriers, clearing channels and generally cleaning up the debris which water always leaves behind. Friday morning, as though Mother Nature was taking the mickey, turned out to be bright and sunny - although it is probably only a temporary lull. The Santa Claus run around the family groups for me this weekend, although I hope to make time to visit the local BBers in Taunton on Saturday for a pint and a chinwag - weather and wife permitting! I look forward to meeting a lot of you in London next week at the annual knees-up. Must get in some practice over the weekend!
I guess a lot of the shuffling about this week had more to do with vying for position in the new FTSE100 than anything. Despite some late bargain-hunting, the main index fell off eleven points on Monday. Tuesday was much more positive as it began to look more like the US election fiasco was drawing to a conlusion. All indices faired well and the FTSE100 rose a creditable 140 points. Things looked set to continue in that new spirit on Wednesday and were only interrupted by some profit-taking. The mood was still positive and restricted the FTSE100 fall to a mere 25 points. Other areas of the market fared better as investors looked for bargains and value in second line stocks. Thurday's decision to leave interest rates alone again (longest stretch at the same rate for many a year) didn't have any impact much on trading with investors more happy concentrating on the bad news projections coming out of the US. Friday started bright and breezy with advances in most sectors and continued so troughout, with the Techmark leading the way!
Closing date for the Poster of the Year Competition has been brought forward to 12 noon on Wednesday 13th December to allow the presentations (where possible) to be made at the Christmas Bash on Friday. VOTE for your favourite BBers in the following categories :-
1) Poster of the year 2000
2) Most constructive poster
3) Most amusing poster
4) Lurker of the year
5) Ramper of the year
6) One line quote of the year
There are two separate competitions - one for the Free BB and one for the Premium BB. (Please indicate in your voting, which BB you are using and your BB nickname.) There will be valuable prizes for the winners. So start now thinking of who you would like to nominate - one choice per category - and when you have decided, send your entries to me here
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The Weekly BB Review
In common with a few (anonymous) others, insideryou was ruing his decision to pump money into BATM Advanced Communications in Batman has lost its wings. On Monday and Tuesday, Hamsterhunter and tempted were still keeping the faith, despite less than good fortune following the share price. Patience was the watchword but it was being stretched to the limit, I think. The profits warning which Addo posted (and reposted) was really fairly buillish considering the circumstances but the market still didn't like it at all. On Thursday morning, the shares lost over 50% of their value - which was already low in many opinions. Schwab treating this as a residual stock (meaning they've got a lot of stock on their hands), as Biomax pointed out, didn't help matters. With the company predicting a surge in revenue in 2001, this might be the Christmas recovery stock. Tempers became a little frayed as things turned sour for those with long positions. Sands and Martini did their best to pour oil on the troubled waters - the ire largely aimed at Addo. His comment "....it is a two dimensional medium with people reading into it in 3d." had a ring of truth about it. It is always worth keeping in mind (especially when posting on sensitive isues at sensitive times) that the lack of body language in BB conversations can easily lead to statements being misinterpreted or exaggerated. On Friday there some fragile signs of recovery as a few buyers entered the market but the share price still ended the day a dismal 156p bid.
It looked like Rayrac and MegRyan had been rewarded for their consistency towards Oxford Glycosciences (OGS) this week as the company announced an alliance with Glaxo Wellcome to make use of their proteomics
technology platform in a joint collaboration. Any announcement of a tie-up with an organisation of this stature is bound to provoke a positive response from the City - and so it proved. With £150m of new money raised via the recent open offer (although a slightly disappointing 21% take up domestically), it was good news enough to send the share price heading for its next resistance level of 1700p. As Rayrac implied, when the international offer was completed, the circle would be rounded - for the moment. Maybe this is enough to tempt chadd into dipping a toe in the water. Hoping that she doesn't think I'm ramping her assets, Acorn1 gave an example of how the open offer would work in practice, with Rayrac following up with the text of the good news that the £150m take-up target had been met. As soon as the statement was released, the share price carried on climbing at a goodly pace. It ended the final session at 1420p bid.
How could you resist a thread entitled Dear Mr. Funndementalist? The whole BB is founded on fandamentals, isn't it? It started with hawkeye bemoaning the near 14% fall in British Gas despite improved profit and earnings figures. ingrid is expecting a lower P/E following comment in Citywire but BROCKMAN hit the nail on the head by pointing out the figures were below what the market expected - doesn't matter whether they were good or not. charter troll, like so many others here, finds it intensely amusing that people still actually take investment decisions based on fundamental data. Having said that, the chart has looked pretty naff for a couple of months and when I cast the runes last week they told me to avoid blue vans. :=) Proved wrong yet again, I watched the share price recover 9p on Friday to finish the week at 262.5p bid.
"Will she, won't she?" MMT Computing was back on the BB with , started thanks to Delboy002 way back in early October when rumours of an offer for the company were rife. I'm afraid it all went pear-shaped at the end of November when the company announced that talks were off. It was certainly enough to send hawkeye running for cover, although Risker is in for the divvie and still sounding confident. Cat and Rayrac were unimpressed. Certainly the chart looks a bit iffy and the pre ex-dividend volume appears to have dried up. I'll sit this one out, I think.
Despite some confusion over how and when the edit button should be used, it was interesting to see REGALIAN..Announcement this morning (RGAL) appear this week just as the press were beginning to discuss why the property sector is currently out of favour and there have been a glut of merger/takeover rumours, stories and deals of late. Along with the interim results on Thursday was the news that an approach had been made "which may or may not lead to an offer." As Thoroughbred suggested, a lot of people seemed to have overlooked the announcements (too busy watching for the BoE interest rate decision ?). A similar discussion was taking place on the Free BB in parallel (Regalian Prop.) with a lot of the same posters involved - gets quite confusing sometimes! The approach statement seems to have caught everyone unawares with the company Managing Director wanting to take the company private being the story favoured by the press. If the MD does get his way and the asset disposal plans go ahead and raise the sort of numbers being bandied about in the City, it will only add to the generally confused state which the property sector currently finds itself in. Maybe worth adding to the Monitor - just to follow the storyline, of course!
It seems almost imperative these days to take an interest in shorting stock. It seems infinitely easier to spot the falls rather than predict the rises at the moment. A good idea of Romeo's then to start Shorting the market: let's talk strategy on Friday. gausie suggested some good reading material to support the subject while Lom's advice is always to go with the flow - don't try to buck the trend as it usually ends in tears! Limpsfield Chartist had a couple of bits of advice for kamz, namely apply the same strategy to shorting as you do to long trading - stop losses included. He also took the opportunity to remind us that there is a Success Events course which covers the subject. dodddy, our renowned day-trader, had three good points to make which are worth printing out and attaching boldly to the wall immediately in front of your screen. The first is the most important - before you enter, make sure you are plain about your ambition for the trade and set yourself an exit point - and stick to it! Sands also has some good advice which works for him - worth quoting in full here for anyone who doesn't open the thread - "...(I) sell half the number of shares I would if going long in a stock. Double the stop loss percentage position although I still base it around resistance points. The advantages are that with current volatility I am getting taken out much less often on a spike whilst leaving the risk $/£ ratio the same . The disadvantage of course is that the reward ratio is of course halved so risk/reward 1.5/1. DONT sell in the first hour of trading unless you know something...." Good thread, although the senses of humour haven't improved :=)
If you use the internet as much as I do (and I guess there are many who do) it is worthwhile searching around for the cheapest connection deal. Call charges can be a nightmare. BT don't seem to have learned the lesson yet, but there are a number of other companies offering free calls 24/24 for a small monthly fee. I can see this market hotting up after the Christmas resurgence of interest in the internet. This thread gives some examples of BBers' experiences to date. Wanted: 1p a minute telephone connection. The truth is out there!
The corniest joke of the week award must go to Biffer in It's a bloody OUTRAGE!!!! Who did this? but poor old Addo once again finds himself the prime suspect as news seeps out that there has been a major massacre in Santaland! bigman! How could you suggest such a thing! Thanks I know nothing; I must admit a little titter ran across the room when I clocked the pic and cartoon. Sadly, Biffer also picks up the oldest joke of the week award too for his later contribution. :=)
Meanwhile, in the Land of the Free.......
A couple of good threads here which DocProc highlighted over on the other side are worth taking a long look at. First Spread Betting the INDICES which Neelix started at the end of November, setting out his basic strategy for getting hold of the data he needs.It soon developed into an excellent debate and exchange of information. That's what BBs are for, after all. I hope this thread continues and urge anyone contemplating "playing the spread" to have a look. DocProc also brought our attention to Any snags with CFD 's ?? ZERO commission, ZERO tax !!! where bj444 has stimulated some good discussion, some of which overlaps with the previous thread but is substantive and helpful. Again, anyone tempted to look at these areas of investment would be well-advised to take a look and read up on some of the experiences which BBers have been through. And, don't gloss over the warnings! Good stuff!
Can't let an opportunity go by to bring oilies into the conversations, can we? Some constructive stuff appeared this week on Dana find oil - again !, although not exclusively to do with Dana Petroleum. Joe soap was a tad upset that despite the recent oil price rises and continued good news flow, the share price was not performing to plan, finding support from Pinkky and the advice to hold on. Thomas10 decided enough was enough to the dismay of Peter Shone who gives us a comprehensive rundown of his reasons for holding on. He goes on to provide an analogy with the old Paddle Tennis video game (which probably only a few of us oldies remember hitting the clubs originally!). Old friends Emerald Energy and Sibir Energy also get some attention with Bananaramadingdong seeming to see advantages in all three - but suggesting also that Paladin Resources might steal a march on them all. Of the four only, Sibir ended the week showing a blue arrow.
Auiron Energy got a mention or two at the most recent meeting of the investment club I belong to and I had to admit I didn't know anything about the company. A little investigation showed that the shares had done very nicely through most of November. However, as colinvest pointed out this week in AUY now into stop-loss country, on Wednesday, it looked as though the trend had been broken. Lalu was one to take the money and live to fight another day. BoyBlue, Davepeers, Dorsey and Eddise were for holding on. The turnaround came soon enough for BoyBlue to start a new thread with a more optimistic title (AUY Bounces Back - Are you still with us) on Friday and the share price pulled back comfortably over the 40p mark. m0rg4n sounded as though he was going to batten down the hatches for a while but Dogeye had no doubts about the eventual outcome - only the timing was in doubt. money loser swiftly decided to take the plunge as the offer price hit 44p. I think I'd like to see the price at this level or higher for a couple more days in a row before assuming that there is genuine support at this level but it does look promising and is certainly on my Monitor.
I would like Poster of the Week this week to go to Martini for his hard work in finalising the Christmas Bash details and his various amusing and enlightening contributions to a number of threads throughout a week when he has just returned home from a serious bit of surgery and probably feels like death-warmed-up. Thank you Martini for all of your efforts and our best wishes for a speedy recovery. I look forward to renewing our acquaintanceship next week when I will certainly be aiming to be full of the Christmas spirit. If you will e-mail me your delivery address, I will see that your prize finds it way to you very soon.
I would like to introduce the opportunity for guest reviewers to put across their own views and summaries of the activities on the Bulletin Boards. It would be limited to a couple of hundred words and could be either a general overview of the BB or some subject (or some stock) you are particularly interested in. If you would like to put your own views across, please contact me and we can arrange dates. I have started putting together a schedule for 2001, so please mail me if you are interested. You never know, you might enjoy the opportunity!The copy could be sent to me in any form - Word, text or e-mail - and I will be happy to handle the conversion to publishing format and provide any editing necessary. This idea has proved popular in the past and I'm sure would be so again. If you would like to have a crack, please drop me a line here
and i'll get right back to you. (Let me know whether you are from the Premium or Free BB so that I can plan the appropriate space.)
Good Hunting!