My well-publicised virus attack caused me much angst and wasted time this week. The virus came in from a "trusted" source from whom I might have anticipated e-mail and stuck a .vbs tail on many files in my system. It was a long job cleaning things out. Another lesson learned. It was good that ADVFN were so helpful in posting up a warning for me to avoid any of you inadvertantly picking up my bug. It gave me the breathing space I needed to get my spare machine running while I fixed the problem. I sincerely hope nobody else fell victim. Needless to say, I have upgraded security on my system to avoid any re-occurrence. DocProc kindly provided a link to a useful free Healthcheck service. It is worth having a look at Greystone virus-WARNING. A few guys who ran the Healthcheck discovered they had virii (unrelated to mine!) which they didn't know they had. Thank you to everyone who helped me get back up and running. A day later, a new virus arrived on the scene, first reported by PitBull and discussed here (New VIRUS? --- US PRESIDENT AND FBI SECRETS"). If you have any spare time this weekend, it might be worth giving your system the once-over. Also, don't forget the PC & MAC CLINIC - On line problem solving. thread which may also have some answers for you.
For the new FTSE100, things began positively on Monday morning but without the enthusiasm a lot had expected. A glitch in the middle of the day restricted the gain to just 39 points. There was a much more optimistic look to Tuesday and markets on both sides of the Atlantic showed more enthusiasm for the fight. This was relected in the 122 point gain in the FTSE100 and lots of blue across the board. Wednesday saw something of a reverse as the overnight NASDAQ performance was hit by poor figures from some major players in the computer sector. That undermined the positive stance the London market had developed earlier in the week. The main index fell away 70 points on the day and the nervousness overflowed into Thursday with another poor performance in most areas and a further 65 points lost from the FTSE100. It was a brighter start on Friday following a better performance overnight in the US. By the end of the session, all sections were well ahead, although many will have been disappointed that the Techmark didn't show more spirit.
The Weekly BB Review
If you are going into short-term trading (as opposed to investing), you need market volatility. However, you also need an element of predictability which is what has been lacking this week. dodddy's daily threads on the subject are always an interesting read and I always take a peek to see what the "traders" are up to. For a fairly typical day in the life of a day-trader, take a look at Wednesday's activity. Pay particular attention to posting number 5 from Dead Cat Bounce. There is some sound advice there. With both UK and US markets bouncing about like a hot yellow-spot squash ball, this week has been hard work for traders. gausie was good enough to kick off the Friday thread when it began to look as though the big London night out had taken its toll on dodddy. Sounds far too energetic a strategy for me!
Dil has been pretty much on his own with Here's One For Fundamentalists ........... since July. The company in question is Comprehensive Business Services which has had a good run this month. With some comprehensive investment from Edinburgh Smaller Companies Investment Trust lately, the share price has continued to improve and, as Dil says, "...you wonder if there is something cooking." Certainly one to keep an eye on. I'm surprised no-one else on the BB has shown any great interest. Up over 30p (8%) on Friday on no particular volume and showing no sign of slowing down.
The construction industry focus on the BB this week was on BEAZER left behind in property shares revaluation. (BZR). Some strange trades at the start of this week caught a lot of attention, Tortoise denied crocodile's strong accusation that he'd sold his twenty one and a half million share stake! A contra transaction the following day was noted by czechmate who also reminded us that the AGM was due Friday. ARICHARD and marksp were equally keen to see some positive movement. I recall buying some of these at flotation and waiting a long, long time before taking any benefit from the investment. At the time I was convinced that the construction industry was a good long-term bet. I still believe that, but, as the thread title implies, Beazer Homes seem to have been left out of the recent revival. A modest gain on Friday left them at 116p bid.
Reflec (REF), the maker of reflective paints and coatings, has long been a favourite with private investors and, although the potential of their business has never quite translated itself into shareholder profits, the fans will stick with it through thick and thin. More good news this week and an impressive performance by the CEO on television helped give the share price a badly needed boost this week. It sounds as though Pippin owns half the company (unless he's exaggerating :=)) and is glowing in his praise. Skinny, Mart and kieran also seemed keen to be in on the act. Some tiny signs of revival this week, but it is still a long way from the year's high and far, far away from Pippin's modest target price. On the Free BB, people were a tad more cyncial, to say the least and especially phased by the ill-timed sale of shares by one of the Directors immediately the SMTM programme plug had lifted the price. (Reflec - plugged on show then director sells , coincidence ?") They finished the week at 11p bid, but with a big spread. IMHO, not one to put your shirt on but certainly worth watching out for.
What began as a plea from zzaxx99 for ADVFN to catch up with the new EPIC for Marconi (Show me the MONI!), attracted a good and comprehensive rundown on the company's situation by BROCKMAN and broadened into a wider appraisal of their situation in relation to others in the sector. After taking a bit of a beating of late, the share price showed signs of picking up this week, gaining 43p on Friday alone on good volumes. The chart should look a little more interesting now!
The recent spate of bad rail accidents ensured that there was plenty of publicity for the Railtrack maintenance contractors. Line closures and promises of bigtime Government investment gave the fans of Jarvis (and The Count! :=)) plenty to talk about as they have some major deals under way. Jarvis-On the Up Track gives some graphic reminders of what is expected of the company and what they do, thanks to cartoon capers and pics from DocProc, who seems have regressed to his teens again :=) and impassioned words from insideryou delivered as loudly as possible. Upyrgunga puts a lot of the hesitance in the City down to distrust following a very public falling out between the company and its auditors, an opinion which seems to be shared by hindsight. The shares showed some signs of revival early in the week but fell off a little in the final session.
There was a good debate this week on the whys and wherefores of the current downer for tech stocks, fired off by Romeo in Tech stocks: from irrational optimism to irrational pessimism?. Just why have some tech stocks fallen by 80%? As Addo says, greed had a lot to do with the original metioric and unsustainable growth in prices. Baden supports that approach too. (brendanp has some good relevant links here.) Dil sees part of the problem arising from companies failing to deliver goods having underestimated demand (Nortel is his example). BROCKMAN bravely (?) thinks the bottom has been reached and it is revival time, whilst crocodile rues the fact that the baby has been thrown out with the bathwater in many cases and good profitable companies have suffered along with those who promised and failed. mr.elbee makes a good point and touches on my own opinion that the institutional market has manipulated the smaller investors to its own advantage. I also believe that the lack of understanding of high technology and its applications by the institutions (and the brokers) has had a hand to play in the farce. Some of the guys I hear on TV venting their opinions on the qualities of particular items of technology obviously have about as much of a grasp of the subject as I do on ancient Greek vases - not a lot! Good thread!
It sounds as though the London Night Out was a huge success and allowed Smellybogbrush and dodddy an opportunity to demonstrate again their organisational skills. I'm sorry I wasn't able to make it. Interesting to note that Tom (ADVFN) has promoted Smelly to the Peerage now that he has become a Director! (Crawler! :=)) And to see Bullie state that "MMs are not really that bad!!" brought a smile to a few faces, I'm sure. If the quiet start to Friday on the Bulletin Board (no posts for 1/2 hour, or is it me?) was anything to go by, there were a few sore heads about. Always a good barometer of success for a night out!
The ADVFN BBers SETI Team has marched on apace. The User is now around the 270 results mark and the Team as a whole will have clocked up over 1200 results by now with Tromso averaging less than 10 hours per unit. I think Version 3.0 of the SETI software certainly seems to have an edge on V2.4 after running it for a week. Wish I had a machine as quick as Tromso's!
Meanwhile, in the Land of the Free.......
I thought that Victory Corporation's AGM might produce enough goodies to give the share price a leg-up but, although it was a rousing meeting according to snakeplisskin who attended it, the market was unimpressed. The Results also demonstrates via munro1938 how frustrated long-term holders are that no matter how good the news is, nobody takes it seriously. For me, this is one to avoid until there is more convincing evidence of the progress they tell us they are making. Off a quarter point in the final session.
As I have found to my cost in the past, investing in football shares is an uncertain business. Even more than with any other share pick, there is a tendency to allow the heart to rule the head. Whilst football company shares are helped by good performances from the team on the pitch, there has to be a sound business platform behind them. At the moment Leeds Sporting is a good example of good performances on the football pitch not being reflected in the value of a stock. noonoo is sounding a bit frustrated and I think only a Leeds supporter would be so confident that they will take a point in Milan. hilt sees a conspiracy theory holding the team back (see champions league) but that doesn't explain why the shares have continued to slide. I hope Leeds United go on to great things (including that next result in Italy) but I will save my interest to the team and leave the shares to those with greater faith.
There's nothing wrong with a bit of bottom-fishing when the signs are right - provided you don't overplay the hand. We've seen that recently with Scotia Holdings who slumped badly after the Foscan disappointment. SCOTIA GOING- DOWN,DOWN....DOWN&DOWN keeps up-to-date with the story and widely differing views. aaaa sees them sinking further whilst Master RSI sees the trend as up. eBod sounds uncomfortable with the situation, drawing parallels with Independent Energy's collapse. I must admit, I took a few on board when they first looked like bouncing, expecting to have to bail out in a hurry when they re-commenced their descent. Instead of that, the price has continued to rise and I'm happy to run with it. However, at the first sign of weakness, I shall quickly review the situation. Still looking healthy on Friday at 24p bid!
Another medical (and recovery) play under discussion this week was Proteome Sciences (PRM) which has follwed a similar pattern to Scotia. Again, the chart looks pretty awful and any movement is driven by rumour rather than substance. With interim results due next Tuesday, the price has started a minor upturn. Maybe that will continue until the results which I don't expect to reveal anything startling. terry91 and myomy have been following the action closely this week with Pooh seeing them as a good long-term prospect too. I'm sure both views are valid. The company is well positioned and has a unique quality about some of its products which could see it do well. It will be interesting to see if the Friday burst of energy carries over into next week or whether pre-results profit-taking bites into the price.
My Poster of the Week this week is Dead Cat Bounce, a prolific BB poster, for putting into words (and action) what a lot of us should do when things aren't going quite according to plan. In his words, "... after hitting a very bad patch trading index futures, I stopped trading for real and went back to paper trading for 2 weeks. I printed out a chart and wrote down reasons for every entry and exit.....tried to take only the very best of signals - no trading on "hope"......result of this major change in discipline over 2 weeks was astonishing....22 trades placed. 17 winners, 3 losers 2 break even...." Sometimes stepping away from a problem for a while gives you a much clearer picture of where you are going wrong. DCB concludes with "....overtrading is a curse. Avoid it like the plague." Congratulations Dead Cat Bouncer! If you will e-mail me a delivery address, I will see that your prize finds it way to you very soon.
Still more entries are needed for the ADVFN Who's Who! (Those received this week will be added over the weekend.) Let your fellow BBers know a little about who you are. If you aren't yet on the list, drop me a few lines about yourself - (a full editing service is provided!) Take a look at the list so far if you want some ideas for how to put a brief bio together. (ADVFN Who's Who) No e-mail addresses are published unless specifically requested by you. Click here for my mail address - 
Good Hunting!