Well, for the first time since I was 17 years old, I am car-less. We have managed to do a deal to part-exchange both of our cars for a new Toyota which is due 1st June - I can guess who'll be driving that most! To be honest, I rarely drive these days, but it is strange not to have a set of wheels to jump into whenever I feel like it. It made no economic sense to keep two running when mine only gathered dust most of the time, so I'm sure we've done the sensible thing. (Sob!)
Well, we almost saw the 6000 mark again on Monday - but profit-taking and "doom & gloom" in the US, pulled back the FTSE100 to close just short of the line at 5966. With so many mixed signals coming from East and West, on Tuesday and Wednesday the London market dithered and both were pretty lifeless days. Only comments from Eddie George that he was surprised by the swiftness of the slowdown in UK GDP growth raised any eyebrows, support for the grounds that an interest rate cut was now becoming more and more likely. By Wednesday close the FTSE100 had edged down to 5904. When news arrived on Thursday of the poor overnight performance in the US, London took on a pessimistic air and the FTSE100 plunged 138 points to 5765. Another bad time in the US next night provoked fears that there might be a bloodbath in London on Friday but there was enough interesting news about locally to ensure that the index started the day strongly. The HBOS merger and Shell profit figures helped. After a little uncertainty mid-session, London decided enouh was enough and took off quite well. With the long weekend ahead, I guess institutional investors were buying into safety. The FTSE100 ended the week with a 104 point gain pushing it to 5870, still way short of the dragon line but a step forward. With the BoE set to pronounce upon UK interest rates next Thursday, it will be interesting to see if the markets are confident enough that another cut will come to make some progress in advance of the day.
Thanks to his newly acquired skills in "c", Rory M (ADVFN) is in the process of adding some "go-faster" stripes the the charting system. (see Faster charts. Try them out now!!!) and the general response has been very positive. If you haven't had a look already, pick up the link on the thread and see the difference for yourself. This is only a cut-down version at the moment and the URL is likely to change when the fully turbocharged version goes into production. Good news for the TA players. Let's hope the full version is quickly completed.
The Weekly BB Review
How much is traded off the order book has developed into quite a debate since Haystack kicked it off on Tuesday. The real question was whether with so much "off screen" activity, the Level 2 price feed was still necessary. As Flops said, it appears to all intents and purposes that the MMs decide on a whim whether to use SETS or not - an exercise which allows them to adjust the order book picture "off-line". Kayak thinks that since the price is determined by the SETS order book, Level 2 is always useful, and of course it also gives the individual MM positions in the case of non-SETS stocks, which enables us to time trades a lot better. harvester takes the cynical view that "...some professional traders use the SETS order book to conceal their real intentions..." which is hard to argue with. Howard0181 was concerned that AIM trades reported on ADVFN might no be complete but, as Kayak pointed out, ALL trades will be published although some will be delayed in view of their size. There was a lot of questions about whether the trades list is adjusted in retrospect and like sparkie, I know that happens, having placed limit orders with my broker and received initial notification that the order had been filled at the limit price, with a more formal confirmation later following to show that they dealt within the limit. No1 made the most strident comment - "...the big guy will always win, leaving us people the left-overs-`twas always thus." The system as it stands is open to abuse and manipulation which means that the more information we have the better. Level2 for me is a must, as is Andyble's ExActFutures system, however, since being part of the beta testing team for streaming data, I think that will have a major benefit for traders when it eventually goes live. Good thread. Shame it seemed to end so abruptly.
On Wednesday, ebiz reminded us that Friends Provident is about to float. He had picked up a news item which set the flotation value between £3.7bn and £4.2bn with members receiving an allocation of 200 shares each which should be worth about £500. He had been expecting considerably more. As geoff911 reported, allocations should begin in July. tracker supplied some more detailed info (see post 5) to help out ebiz - "All qualifying members will get a flat 200 shares. Those in "With Profit" policies that qualify will also get ADDITIONAL shares probably based on the value of the policy, time held etc.
The £2,500 you refer to, I understand, is the AVERAGE VALUE of the payout accross all Friends Prov policy holders. Some get 200 shares, some get say 4000 shares." That had a few scurrying about looking for their policy documents. No1 rang them to check his situation and finds he will be entitled to a whole 0.8 of an extra share. Wow! sonofagun brought in a relevant new angle to the plot, "...they adjusted the terminal bonuses on with profits policies to more than compensate them for what they will payout. What about the orphan assets?..." parrett is pleased that he can rest easy in the knowledge that he wins and kame401 has found out he gets an extra 16 shares for his investment to date. maxk is gearing up for the inevitable ramping campaign. :=)
StewJames saw "a whole lot o' shakin' goin' on!" and asked Tree shaking - what's it all about?. As gordgeko so lucidly explained, this exercise is "...when the MM's for no apparent reason drop the price of a stock enough to either make you poop yourself and SELL..." As for its frequency, it is probably a lot less than it would appear to be, as cheve says. However, it does happen and we must be aware of it. wonging has been studying the phenomenon in detail and quotes an interesting case in post 14 which sounds more like a trader playing tricks rather than the MMs. As he says in an earlier post, to be effective, the "tree-shaking" exercise must be a joint exercise between all MMs on a stock, which is not so easy to envisage as they do very little in harmony. I think the term is used by a lot of less secure BBers (none of those on this board, I must add!) when they see the price of their "baby" going down. You have to blame someone, don't you? And the MMs are a perfect target.
The Risk Reward And Money Management thread, started by Limpsfield Chartist in April 2000 has been an excellent debate and contains a lot of very sound advice, despite the desperate ramping of his own website. tightfist brought it to the top this week - obviously anticipating an upturn and determined to be ready for it. As The Player says, a lot has happened since this thread first emerged. I can't entirely agree with his "..risk reward ratios are a tad futile.." statement but I certainly agree with "...the ONLY thing you can know is the level to which you do NOT want the price to fall, and that's all..". Stop loss, stop loss stop loss! guinea pig says has also had problems with the "measuring risk" formulae and is more concerned with establishing a position size for a trade. Limpy admits to straying from his strategy and receiving a financial "slapping" for it - enough to persuade him to stick rigidly to his 3:1 rule in future. As he (and others) have said (or implied) within this debate, the dangers increase dramatically if you over-trade. Very few opportunities will arise which meet all the criteria you set yourself but don't be impatient and trade for the sake of it. Still one of the best threads on the board.
axiom has been doing some soul searching in light of his recent trading experiences. I'm a speculator not a gambler - how about you? sets out a questionnaire which he picked up form Gamblers Anonymous but which seems quite relevant here too. To be classified as a compulsive gambler, you will answer "yes" to as few as seven of the twenty questions. His own score was eleven. moonblue went one better. Martini was in dreamland again with his own version which has, as you might expect, nothing at all to do with trading. As a fulltime trader, Kayak scored a creditable three and wonging an "honest" nine. robber and ChisG came in under the red line. Morraly bankrupt has some excellent thoughts on the subject - seeing no difference at all between gambling an speculating. I like the closing line of his post - "There are only two types of gambler....losers and liers" Very profound. I am not going to reveal my own score (but it was a tad higher than 7). Have a try yourself and see how you fare.
Don't forget crocodile's PC & MAC CLINIC - On line problem solving thread if you have a technical problem. The thread is full of good hints, solutions and links and deserves ADVFN spending some time on creating an index for it. I have found it useful on many occasions. With the anniversary of "The Love Bug" virus on Friday, it did prompt me to do an overnight scan which was long overdue.
Some of the non-stock threads seem to create an almost fanatical following. The best examples are "Go to bed" said Sardine which is turning into a night club for insomniacs and maniacs and has accumulated almost 900 postings since started by Trawler in February. A more successful thread yet - which is actually fourth in a series - runs on the Free BB and is a mix of social and investment chat. It also includes some amusing and interesting pics, animated gifs and links. THE SHARES CAFE has racked up over 1400 postings since -GoldDog- opened for business in April.
Meanwhile, in the Land of the Free.......
bird's FTSE-100 chart outlook .....as requested thread has turned out well with some good debate and observation. He is still ultra bearish on the FTSE and is now holding three June shorts. But 4600? I hope not. zjc takes a more optimistic view while i rely on research sounds a bit cynical about the whole exercise. (I'm sure bird insists on adding "DYOR" to his postings simply to comply with the rules regarding "tips" and "financial advice".)
WAP or CRAP Phones?? is an attempt by FEARLESS666 to highlight the transient nature of mobile phone technologies - in this case WAP. I quite agree that WAP will be a short-lived protocol as there are already much more efficient systems under development. The main problem is speed, which is a general problem with mobile phone technology anyway. Also, as bj444 says, it is expensive. The slower the speed the more expensive it is. However, as eugene1234 points out, it is cheaper than premium land line calls. I agree with the hound that WAP has its place and with others that it is difficult to find a great number of people who use it actively. (Or, maybe I just lead a sheltered life.) Whether FEARLESS666 is CS or not, I tend to agree with most of his/her opinions on this one. WAP has a place. For the moment.
Choice of Poster of the Week this week goes to SpiceBoy for his jargon busting contribution to the Contingent Orders thread. This is the sort of info I only seem to be able to find on the ADVFN Bulletin Board. Congratulations SpiceBoy! Please drop me a line with a delivery address and I'll get your prize on its way.
Good Hunting!
The ADVFN Who's Who is still growing and is now a quite long list. If you haven't sent me your bio yet, please drop me a few lines about yourself - a full editing service is provided! No e-mail addresses are published unless specifically requested.