Red Nose Week? Red Eye Week? Whatever! (17/03/2001) Greystone

A hectic week for me this week as my wife had a few days in hospital in Exeter undergoing some tests for something or other (non-life threatening). The 100 mile roundtrip twice a day was hard work. I've got out of the habit of commuting in recent years and I can now remember why. The strangest thing about the week was having the house to myself for the first time. I'm often away on business but have never spent so much time home alone since my last batchelor days. I'd forgotten how quiet it can be. Local residents of the little Devon hamlet I lived in previously (and still visit regularly) have been fighting to save the village pub with petitions and lobbying against a plan by the licensee to redvelop it and its car park for residential purposes. Using the power of the internet to spread the word, they have been successful in persuading the Local Authority to throw out the idea. One up for us! (Friends of Staplecross)

It was a bumpy ride this week with the FTSE100 at one time hitting a closing level not seen since the bad days of 1998. On Monday the main index took a knock of 90 points, dragging it down to 5826. Any hopes that the US might turn around and give some encouragement to investors were quickly quashed as the DJIA itself lost over 200 points overnight. On Tuesday there was even more red on the screens and a further drop of 105 points dragged the FTSE down to a scary 5720. Hopes of a technical rally quickly faded on Wednesday as the fall continued. With no place to hide for safety and no support from the US where the picture was even more bleak, investors watched in horror as the FTSE100 plunged into the depths. Even a late rally left it 94 points adrift at 9625. Bargain hunting provided a platform for a rally on Thursday and the index gained over 100 points on the day but somehow it was all unconvincing. Friday was a disaster from the bell with no support anywhere and another flood of red. With the FTSE100 down at 5562, where do we go from here?


Yet more new goodies appeared in the ADVFN toolkit this week with an extension to the Level 2 service allowing us to track changes in MM positions as they occur - either by EPIC or MM. Quite a nifty feature and very useful, especially in these volatile times. Quote Changes will get a lot of use.



The Weekly BB Review

It has been a lousy week or two for most of us but Ladron took a big hit this week, as recorded in I'm as sick as a parrot - my '01 profit lost in just 4 days !!. It didn't take long before he found out he wasn't the only one suffering. March and Meg Ryan were quick to sympathise and counsel patience but Ladron seemed to think the Building Society might be safer after all, although as his posting appeared to emanate from his holiday home in Spain and he was doing OK with Spanish stocks, there was a limit to how much sympathy his plight might generate. Forsaken suggested renting out the hacienda to fellow BBers might bring in a few bob (10% fee deducted). GAIN and LLUCKY offered support while dodddy suggests trading only intraday while the current volatility lasts (surprise, surprise!). I like the DSH anecdote, "No point in trying to build sandcastles when the tide's coming in." adonis, Biffer and t10Trader each had comforting words and Wessex, while wishing Ladron well, insisted the trading method is much more fun that the BS method. (There's a quality of life issue here.) ExecLine suggested branching out into something completely different! That's quite a spread!

The long wait for news from Clubhaus was finally over on Friday when the golf course operator posted up news that the 60p per share offer for the company was no more. Moneybags has always been a leader on this one (presumably he has the biggest handicap) boyse was the one to break the bad news (Clubhaus.....The Bid) Aquila was just taking the ... oh, just being Aquila, I guess!

The old Dragon Oil fans came out into the light this week as the shares showed remarkable signs of life. (Dragon Oil - thoughts please) There was also general press coverage which helped the cause. dcarn expected an interesting week and wasn't disappointed. Gordon Brown and s4w3 were keen to follow the action while Dil still rued a previous missed opportunity with the same stock. As mungoa reported Thursday, the company were atop the winners table as the surge went on. Pippin was doubly convinced that something good was going to happen and bought in early Friday morning. However, by late morning Gordon Brown sounded the warning bell followed swiftly by Lofty. The shares continued to bubble along until lunchtime before going into reverse in the afternoon session to end up a few pence down on the day. Still a healthy profit for anyone who bought in this week (or last). With OPEC cutting oil production quotas, the oil price should remain high and that can only be good for DGO. Unless of course, that well in the Caspian turns up dry....

Autonomy sub £10 here we come ? sounds about right. Mealiff's chart looks grim enough but mab's addition of trend lines gives a better view of where it might be heading. mr elbee had picked up the end of the FT's optimism about Autonomy, suggesting it is prescient of an opportunity for us all. (I had to look that one up in the dictionary! prescient=foreknowing) paulwells saw 1300p as the crucial point before looking at a short - now long gone - but Pippin still saw the pattern as a double bottom. All but the shorters will be hoping that dodddy's £5 prediction is a joke!

StewJames came up with a topical conundrum in Shorting and companies going bust - surely a few will be in danger of going to the wall in the present rout. He wanted to know if, when you're short and a company goes tits up, you lose everything or make 100% profit. Cat Man had the right answer (although he wasn't sure) while dodddy gave the technical phraseology which accompanies such situations - "having a right bloody result" and was interested to know if there was a particular stock in mind. (He's never one to pass by a good opportunity!) The share Stew was looking to was , currently languishing at 30p bid, slip sliding away (as the song goes). ( Recent Chart) Smallchange suddenly began to think how he could make something out of his holding.....

On a similar theme, Robert started Advance warning of the Crash with news that two newsletters he subscribes to have come up with the same dire warning he predicted a year ago. He was already prepared, in cash and sitting on his hands but wondering what shorting could do for him. As for calling the bottom - don't even try! Ladron and Aquila suggest the best investment at the moment is more training - you can never get enough of it - to put you in a position to take advantage of the opportunities which the bear market provides and be ready for the long trades when the right time comes. Martini and biker suggested a meeting at a suitable hostlery was called for! Good to see Sands working his way back after a bad run persuaded him to take a rest from trading for a while.

As pommy says, "....it seems incredible what these markets do to people that have previously seemed quite sane!". He was responding to Aquila's How Do I Get Inside a Tumble Dryer thread. Incredibly enough Mad Mac actually did just that while at Uni. Now we know where the nickname comes from! :=) crocodile is concerned that Aquila might have got stuck in there when things suddenly went very quiet. (I tried to call but got no reply - he's probably gone for a spin in the country instead!)

I know things are not too great here in the UK at the moment but in some parts of the world just living from day to day can be a bit of a lottery. It doesn't take much to make a big difference to people's lives in some of the poorer parts of the planet and there are now a number of sponsored websites where, just by a single click of the mouse, you can provide enough to feed someone for a day or provide them with water. A couple of threads on the BB have listed a few sites you can visit and do a lot of good for very little effort. Please take a look at With one click make somebod's life better for the latest sites to emerge and see what you can do to help. (Thanks to GAIN for starting the thread and all of those who have contributed) Closer to home, Friday was Red Nose Day and there is still time to contribute to that good cause. ExecLine provides Red Nose Day Comic Relief - Link to Donation Site :@ for the chance to do just that.

It is even more valid now to check out the regular feature threads. * USA STOCKS - March 2001 *, * ASIA STOCKS - Year 2001 * and * EURO STOCKS - Year 2001 * all begin with dynamic charts for an instant view of the particular markets and some good discussion. If you are interested in the pharma area, Sectoral Intercourse: Pharmaceuticals contains just about everything you need to know.

Meanwhile, in the Land of the Free.......

Activity in the Orchard (OFU) re-emerged this week with astraleisure spotting some big(gish) trades going through. SirY2K suggested that news may hit the market next week which would explain all. peterreidsmith decided to call it a day and go bargain hunting elsewhere but, as poolman pointed out, there was some buying activity again on Friday which moved the price a tad. I hope that "sunny day" arrives soon.

danMAR tried to get some more rational discussion about NIS going on in his Northgate Information Solutions discussion thread. gazz127 backed him up as a long-term holder and Thomas10 reported on Tom Winnifrith's comments picked up on Bloomberg TV which suggested they were a good bet. Whilst alsation is a big TW fan, Wildrover warned against following his "tips" too closely as he has "tipped" his share of dogs over the years. Having said that, he still sees NIS as a quality company and will be back in when the trend is more favourable. Although taking a big hit on these, tuftymatt too is waiting for a future opportunity to re-enter the fray. You guys obviously have patience which is what this one is going to require. I feel it may be some time before there is any real recovery.

morose lived up to his handle with I'm getting near to ditching the lot!!. The thread obviously hit a nerve as it generated 130 postings in double quick time. On Wednesday night watch was still thinking "buying opportunities". I think Muchos Wonga was more realistic when he suggested it was no good we little guys supporting a falling market. The trend is your friend and the trend is DOWN. artful dodger has been careful to balance his exposure with ISA cash and property backing up his portfolio - wise man. On Thursday everyone was wondering whether the prevailing blue colour on the screens was only a temporary blip. garrie was wondering if he'd missed out by selling out too early but was later proved right, deciding on Friday (when the red meanies reappeared) that he'd take a share holiday. It is worth taking a look at abz's posting (124) which carries a lot of sense. As for morose who started this thing off - he's away to the Caribbean for a while - probably the wisest move of all.



This week's Poster of the Week prize goes to jazza for an interesting little observational piece hidden away in BALTIMORE TECHNOLOGY - Stuff The Chart I'm Buying. which includes "...the number of bulls and bears are said to reach their respective peaks at the top and bottom of market swings..." Must be aproaching the bottom then? :=) Congratulations jazza! Please drop me a line with a delivery address and I'll get your prize on its way.


Good Hunting!

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