The "Foot and Mouth" crisis has begun to bite here this week with outbreaks of the disease being reported ever closer to home. I had a business meeting just over the Devon border on Tuesday and had to arrange it in such a way that we could avoid the lanes which have been sealed off for safety. There is also a local kerfuffle about the number of horses being exercised on the beach this week - there are always a few but this week has seen a ten-fold increase. The argument is not so much about the horses being there (at least one Grand National winner has used this beach as a training ground) but how they got there and where they came from. The majority appear to be hunters. Media coverage has ensured that the food stores are all doing a roaring trade as the stockpiling of meat begins - another reason I can use to get out of shopping this weekend. for the second Friday in a row, a local power cut had me wondering whether I would be able to get this piece finished. Luckily this time it was minutes rather than hours but it caught me between "saves" which was annoying.
Despite an unconvincing rally by some tech stocks, the week started poorly and without conviction. The FTSE100 gave up a further 27 points to keep it well below the 6000 mark. With more hints that a further interest rate cuts might be on the cards next time around and a bit of bargain-hunting amongst tech and telecoms stocks, there was a minor recovery on Tuesday, but not enough to recoup the previous day's losses, the FTSE100 ending the day at 5941. Although the banking sector had a better time of things on Wednesday, the Greenspan factor ensured that the day ended in negative territory - again. A very similar picture emerged on Thursday with the FTSE100 down to 5908. Friday's opening saw a dramatic plunge in the main index value which was later tempered by common sense and helped by better-than-expected results from Rolls Royce. However, there was nothing about to cheer the markets at all and every index had a RED day. A bad week in every respect. Will the FTSE100 test 5750 next week? On this performance it is entirely possible.
Don't forget to visit the Top Lists facility for a quick view on current winners and losers. The function which tracks Constant Gainers and Losers is very interesting if you are looking at trends and want to avoid dredging through the whole FTSE. It is also interesting to see what the MMs are currently buying and selling! Worth a few daily visits to keep you abreast of events and set out in an uncomplicated, easy-to-read format. Take a look!
The Weekly BB Review
"All that glisters is not gold" but Calling any followers of Signet Group PLC (SIG) was re-awakened this week as coiffurist, Limpsfield Chartist, spotted signs of a break through resistance and ploughed in. Andyble was quick to join the hunt for 100p. It is certainly a pretty chart. Let's hope it doesn't run out of steam. As Andy says, "...it never quite seems to achieve the level it deserves." Maybe this time! A big T sell right on the bell took off a little glitter.
Ncipher looks a good short (NCH), kicked off by lodger last week, turned out to be a shorters dream. In fact the opportunities ran into this week too but it was a matter of keeping nerves intact. SpectoAcc, parrett and dodddy (of course!), were lined up to take advantage of the companiy's fall from grace. The unanticipated temporary bounce in price early in the week stretched a few sinews but those sticking with it had the opportunity to make a healthy profit - provided they bailed out by early Thursday morning when the trend reversed as the short positions were closed. At least it paid for lodger's skiing holiday. Who says shorting isn't fun!
Crowman's introductory thread highlighting KIER GROUP (KIE) turned out to be a revelation. Mr Charts was also in - on the basis of the chart alone which looked very bullish. With interim results due for publication 15th March, he saw no reason for anyone to take profits for a while yet. Crowman expected the results to be good but anticiapted some tree-shaking along the way. Exactly what appeared to happen bigtime this Friday with a 3% (12p) fall.
In a week when shorters were in the ascendancy (or is it descendancy?), dodddy carried on picking at the bones of Orchestream in The Orchestream are playing on the decks of the Titanic. Kjoco resurrected the painful memories of Calluna by pointing out that the two companies share the same Chairman but it didn't shake Rayrac from his eternal optimism. Swede55 warned Limpsfield Chartist to watch his short position (without explanation). After falling away throughout February (with one or two insignificant glitches along the way), the shares seem to have found a support level at 150p and bounced back 9p on Friday just to keep the shorters on tenterhooks and the long-term holders in hope. With this one so easily damaged by outside influences, I'm looking for more manageable risks for my pennies.
Well, Save Group gave up the ghost this week as, I think, many had expected for some time; especially since the recent petrol crisis highlighted the vulnerability of the private operators. Scripophilist says it all in SAVE Group finally goes into administration. Like him, I have taken an interest in the shares since the old "shooting star" thread of many moons ago. I only ever made one brief foray into SVE and escaped with enough to cover my costs and enough for a tankfull of unleaded. linhur and Acol are similarly pleased to have steered clear of late. A good appraisal here of what is really meant by "value investing". I hope there are not too many burned fingers out there.
A good spot by chester last week put John Laing into a few Monitor lists. In John Laing - The Rebirth, chester was joined by hilly, Dil and Tortoise as the fan club built. The possibility of the company making the Mid250 is another potential plus for a firm which has experienced some dire times of late and has turned things around quickly by re-inventing itself and concentrating on the retail end of the construction market. After establishing good support at the 500p level, the shares now seem destined for much better times. They closed the week at 541p bid.
If you have ever been tempted by Warrants (or just didn't know what they were), take a look at Idiot's Guide to Warrants which zzaxx99 kicked off a couple of weeks ago. It has developed into a comprehensive description and appraisal with valuable input from Acol, Tromso and Einstein (amongst others). There are some useful links too, particularly from ExecLine who seems to have a link to everything somewhere - must have a heck of a favourites list! Superrod spotted the potential downside of dealing with Warrants - as tightfist says, "...it's a high risk game!" Latter discussions revolved around EVC Christows (see also EVCW for Warrants) who announced a consolidation plan (amongst other things) on Friday which pushed the Warrant price ahead - close to the share price level. It is not a clear picture yet, but if you are a holder of either the shares or the warrants, it is worth taking a look at this thread - particularly the appraisals of the possible outcomes for the company from zzaxx99 and Humdinger, who anticipates a potentially damaging dilution of the company's capital value. Excellent thread.
Much speculation in and a variety of means of attempting to calculate ADVFN's revenue stream in Bullie very Bullish, especially after Bullshare published the current site advertising rates. Suffice to say that operating costs appear to be well under control (£100k per year?) and page impression rates are growing all the time. With a Sales Director now on board (sic), it suggests to me that the company can begin to optimise the take-up rate for advertising under its various headings. I think everyone was relatively happy to hear that that side of the business was going so well, although a few doubts were raised about whether subscription rates would remain at current levels. There is no suggestion that I have seen that current subscription levels will change - although with a hint of new services to come, it may be that..... I guess we'll find out in due course. There is a limit to what the company can say in these situations and we seem to have reached it. The new banner ad got the novelty prize of the week!
The PC & MAC CLINIC - On line problem solving thread has concentrated highly on system performance issues during the past week or so. There are a few suggestions of how to speed up your PC and improve response from your ISP. Mad Mac and robber both came up with sites offering (free) software to help tune and monitor your PC. I have had them both running most of the week and there is a perceptable difference. Also included is a good (and uncomplicated) explanation from SpiceBoy as to how Windows manages your resources. If you are having any problems at all with your PC or software, I suggest this thread is the first port of call. Thank you to all of those who give their time so freely to help out those of us a little less "au fait" with the technicalities of computing. Expert or not, you may find it useful to visit PC Pitstop which will give you an assessment of the efficiency (or otherwise) of your current setup and suggest changes you may wish to make. It has certainly helped me clean up my system.
I would just like to take this opportunity to wish Martini a HAPPY BIRTHDAY for Monday - an occasion which he, sadly, has to spend in hospital as part of his rebuilding plan. We all hope you have a good day Martini and are fit enough soon to rejoin the madhouse!
Meanwhile, in the Land of the Free.......
In spite of the encouraging thread title, SCOOT - Ready to move up, Scoot.com PLC look anything but secure as an investment at the moment. Sure, the French subsidiary announced a new deal on Monday, but where is the support and where is the volume? While kitkat and Paul Kostner could see only a bargain, gordonvallance was a little more circumspect (and realistic) in expecting further falls. Maybe shush is right, that it will take a bid (or BIG deal) to get them moving in a northward direction. For everyone's sake, I hope johnmfrancis is wrong but I can't find anything to enthuse me about this one at the moment. Down to 43p bid by Friday close and looking very fragile. Any hint of a recovery is bound to be covered by the shorters all around us which will make a return to full health very difficult!
Since Whoops brought Motionposter to our attention in Whoops - MotionPoster Research in Novmeber last year, there has beena lot of in-depth investigation and analysis but very little joy for the share price. However, today saw a return to BLUE as the date for preliminary results was published - 14th March. Whoops, as always was thorough in his research to the extent of finding out a bit more about how the MMs can manipulate the market. Friday's small rise was due to Winterflood's moving to the offer early in the morning although I could see any serious buying to support the move. I guess the rumours will begin to circulate close to reporting date which might give the price a boost but unless the results show something startling, which is unlikely this early in the company's cycle, I don't see them taking off until some firm orders are in place. The potential market for their product is huge but they need to get that all-important first client under their belts. Until then it is only cash burn and dreams - I think I'll take mieke's advice and just keep my eyes peeled (and fingers crossed!).
A doom and gloom trading statement from Stagecoach brought them crashing with a vengeance with jimted expecting the 48p in quick time. STAGECOACH whats going on??? began in positive mood back in January. Any hopes of getting near the 90p-95p mark which Merlin37 was looking for in February have now disappeared forever, it would seem. As COLSMITH and grity spotted, there were a lot of buys going through amongst the sell orders. On the whole though, these were relatively small and smacked of bottom fishing. If there is any credibility in the thoughts of jeeves2 and mcpaulas that it could lead to the company being taken back into private ownership (Brian Souter and The City has long had a frosty relationship) then that might limit the fall. By the end of trading on Friday the price was 56p bid - having recovered a little from its low of the day. Not one for widows and orphans. It may take a long while for the dust to settle.
I would like to award this week's Poster of the Week award to Aquila for his energy and enthusiasm. He has been here, there and everywhere on the Bulletin Board this week. It just reminded me how quiet it was for the short period he was away. On weeks like this where is nothing much to cheer about anywhere, it is good to have someone with Aquila's energy to keep the bells ringing! Congratulations! Please drop me a line with a delivery address and I'll get your prize on its way.
Good Hunting!
The ADVFN Who's Who is still growing and is now a quite long list. If you haven't sent me your bio yet, please drop me a few lines about yourself - a full editing service is provided! No e-mail addresses are published unless specifically requested.