So much news and so little time! (10/02/2001) Greystone

Ever had one of those weeks when seven days just isn't enough? Without actually achieving a great deal, I seem to have spent the week running from place to place. The house still looks like a bomb hit it and the plans are going back and back. I guess we'll get used to living with "modern rubble" decor eventually. Trying to get anything done in a hurry in sleepy Somerset is about impossible. Still, it has its compensations - we didn't get caught up in the snow blizzards which friend Vertigo had to suffer. Another disaster trip home from London Thursday night via First Great Western was rescued by a very friendly, efficient and reassuring guy at Taunton station (not where I was supposed to be!) who kindly arranged a taxi to get me home. If only the staff on the trains themselves were as helpful, it would be a much improved service.

Monday saw a slow start as many Londoners were late at their desks due to industrial action on the underground but when they got there, there was nothing to inspire them and trading was light. A similar pattern emerged on Tuesday with everyone seeming to be waiting for a lead from the Bank of England later in the week when the gurus decided on interest rates. On Wednesday the FTSE100 fell off 67 points, largely undermined by the bad vibes in the telecomms industry and the revised valuation put on Orange. Thursday was a big reporting day and results were mixed. With the interest rate cut of 0.25% already discounted, it was pretty negative all round and the FTSE100 dropped further to 6206. The banking sector came away smiling and Shell and BP stirred up a hornets nest and a lot of negative press with big profits recorded - bad timing with the fuel price lobby gathering pace again. Friday was pretty red and dismal all round and with the US opening in a sour mood, it doesn't bode too well for Monday's opening. Best make the most of the weekend, I think!


Keep on the lookout for new ADVFN functions and some which might not be immediately obvious. Have you checked out the new charting tools yet? They give a lot more options than the old toolset and the multiple overlays can be very useful. Also have a look at the News Monitor function where you can customise newsflow to suit your portfolio or monitor. Save wading through a lot of unwanted items and helps make sure you don't miss anything. So, take a look at the tool-bar and see what new goodies you can find!



The Weekly BB Review

CMC Users - Start Complaining came back into play this week and seems to indicate that there have been some improvements in service but things are still far from perfect. sundance was in the process of opening an account and seeking some re-assurance. paulwells is certainly not impressed and (like many others here) is giving GNI Touch a run as an alternative. All-in-all, GNI seem to get the better press, although they too have their problems from time-to-time. I guess none of them will get ten out of ten. Please keep posting up your experiences (good and bad) because it does help those BBers about to plunge in some background upon which to base a decision. It is hard enough to make a buck these days without having service problems with a dealer.

GEO Interactive has put on a new set of clothes and metamorphosed into Emblaze Systems (BLZ). The company is now estsblished on such an international scale that any Middle East problems may have only a limited effect but Vertigo and pooh fear it could have serious consequences. The news has certainly not set the share price alight. The potential is huge but it needs a lot of confidence building to get things moving in the right direction again. New Israeli PM, Sharon isn't going to help there, I fear. 25p down on Friday and looking a bit sad.

Tech shares: where are they headed over the next 90 days? is a good question. Romeo was looking to judge BB sentiment and, as might have been predicted, the responses were extreme in the extreme. Volatility was the most common word used, although StewJames and Trader2 saw the range as relatively narrow. Anon gave me the impression that he sees a lemming-like dash for the cliffside later in the year but capitalist took a more optimistic view, unlike Cat who certainly sounded gloomy about immediate prospects. We'll bookmark this one for April and see what has transpired then.

Since EARTHPORT PLC now trading on AIM was kicked off by pommy at the end of January, that share price has seen a giant "thud!" Earthport provide technology enabling secure online transactions and have a pretty good list of clients. Pommy has some reservations about director holdings but certainly none about the prospects for the company. Gerard J picked up on some buying activity on Friday which at least steadied the boat a little. However, it was quickly followed by a bout of selling which suggests the worst may be yet to come. Off just a touch at Friday close.

Although helllv set the ball rolling on Aminex - So cheap it hurts, it is SpectoAcc and Ladron who have been running with it lately. Pippin who, I know, spent time working with the sector, is a bit dubious about the economics of getting oil money out of Russia (politically rather than physically), although he has confidence in the company management. If, as suggested here, the value of the potential reserves is so substantially in excess of the company valuation, why is it not reflected in the share price? Big institutional selling could have left a big overhang and the MMs are not going to give up their chances of making a few bucks out of it. That would suggest to me that the price is more likely to go up than down. Aminex's recent chart looks as though the drop at the end of last week has been reversed. For me it needs a few more days of recovery and buying to prove the point. Maybe, just maybe, helllv will see the movement he wants as we approach publication of final results. The company reported moving into profit at the interim stage - has it continued in that vein? Friday's news of a Director buy of 100,000 shares will do no harm to the case, that's for sure. Certainly worth keeping an eye on.

A brief mention in Friday's national press seemed to be the spur that Blacks Leisure needed, quickly spotted by ARICHARD and posted in Blacks Leisure has been drifting ..... It certainly stopped any further drift following the downbeat trading statement in January! Up over 11.5% on good volumes. Scripophilist expected momentum buyers to add to the feeding frenzy with ainsoph also picking up on the news. Aren't takeover rumours wonderful? Remember to keep on hand on the rip-cord - just in case!

At times it seemed mighty quiet on the Premium BB this week, although the Free BB went on at its usual frenetic pace. In answer to Charles Bronson's question - Is this board dying?? - I think the answer is definitely not. Certainly since its inception, the pattern of posting has changed - largely due to the introduction of new tools and the ease with which posters can now present charts, etc., within a thread. This has taken away some of the necessity for discussion. DSH summed it up for me with "...Charting doesn't lend itself to great discussions so this board is bound to be short on serious fundamentals-based chat. There's just too many chartists on here. It's also populated by serious investors - people who are willing to pay money to be here. That implies experience and the more you know the less you feel like relying on the wisdom of others. On that basis there is a certain inevitability to the outcome." There is still a lot of activity but it is less in the form of debate. (Apart from the insomniacs club!) Newcomers might think it muted on the Premium BB but propitious use of the "Search" button will show that most subjects and shares are covered somewhere. With a lot of goodies tucked away in places like "The Traders Threads" which regularly notch up over a hundred postings in a day, you sometimes need to search a bit harder than was the case in the early days.

Kayak came up with the great news that another budding investor has sprung into the world in the form of baby kayak. Hearty congratulations from everyone! (I'm not sure whether Mad Mac's diet hint referred to the father or the mother of the family drinking champagne - but it sounds like a good idea!) Sardine is making a slot free on the late night thread to make sure there is somewhere to hide should sleepless nights become a temporary problem. I recall my own daughter was more difficult to wake than to get to sleep - obviously took after her Dad! (Read the story and check out the pics here.)

I must give a little time, thanking Dil for taking all of the stick about last weekend's rugby results in such good humour. I hope the England supporters will be equally kind when thrashed by the Irish and Scots teams later in the competition. ;=)

Meanwhile, in the Land of the Free.......

Up and down like Murphy's hat, AUTONOMY (AU.) are either a great momentum play or a shorter's paradise, depending on what day it is. Then mix technology shares and football and you have all the making of a popular soap opera! The football connection is ENIC, a major shareholder, who are also involved with Glasgow Rangers. With them also touted as a bidder for Tottenham Hotspur and rumours that they may need to sell some of their stake in Autonomy to finance the deal getting louder, despite denials from the company, it was enough to push Autonomy shares from their fragile pedestal when added to the news that Microsoft is understood to be launching a similar product to Autonomy's in Q2/2001. If that wasn't enough, a retracted statement about poaching an employee did nothing to calm the jitters. If GARYCOOK was worried on Wednesday when he started the thread, he must have been distraught by Friday as the share price continued to plunge. Gurlywurly, expecting company results next week, was looking for a buy-in point. GMATTIO1 pondered £19 as a target but Powderhound saw the continued trend as down. With so much uncertainty surrounding the company, I think it is time so find a seat in the main stand and watch from a distance. Unless of course, you were cool enough to take a good short position on Friday morning. Down nearly 10% on the day.

Reuters Group keeps threatening to break out of its downtrend but never seems to maintain any momentum. When Luthor started Reuters - a 16% Rise last December, it looked likely but fizzled out. That has continued to be the story ever since. Now the game is "guess the bottom!" as ecclesme, noor and Hot_Property expected to find a get-in around 1010p. By Friday, rembrandt was playing the game too but the share price bobbled about around the 1020p mark and it seemed unclear whether it would break the barrier and slip further. Ended the week at 1019p offer. A quality company but subject to many outside influences. Don't be too quick to jump aboard while there is still red ink about!

I fear there may have been a few burned fingers this week amongst the Invensys fan club. Certainly ISYS LARGE SELLS? suggests so - although the original thread heading referred to a completely different set of events. pd55 noticed the price fall Friday morning with Goldfinger suggesting that a profits warning might be on the cards. Although all company sources denied the rumours, the City believed them enough to mark the stock down 9%. The AFX news item is here. Sounds a bit iffy to me.



This week's Poster of the Week prize goes to Mealiff whose enthusiasm has shone through in a week when there was much discussion about a lack of content on the PBB. Those who have had the privelege of meeting him will agree, I'm sure, that Mealiff is enthusiastic about everything, whether it be investing, his ladies football team, promoting the involvement of the Northern Ireland contingent, or just life itself. The craic! He has also developed a keen appetite for charting since taking one of the courses on offer which I have tried not to influence my decision. ;=) Congratulations Mealiff! If you will e-mail me a delivery address, I will see that your prize finds it way to you very soon. Enjoy!


Good Hunting!

The ADVFN Who's Who is still growing steadily and is now a quite long list. (I'm way behind with updating the listing but will catch up with it over the weekend) If you haven't sent me your bio yet, please drop me a few lines about yourself - a full editing service is provided! No e-mail addresses are published unless specifically requested.