Limited Imagination! (03/02/2001) Greystone

My project plan for the building work in the house has gone the way all plans do - all to pot! Still living wih a hole in the wall for a fireplace as the original has had to go back for some reshaping. This means the carpet can't be fitted and the decorating can't be started, etc., etc. And I don't have a mantelpiece to put Bullie's picture on! How sad! Whilst stripping off the wallpaper in the main room, we discovered a boarded section and under it a wall safe - complete with partially legible instructions for opening and locking it. So far no joy with any of the compinations. We presume it is empty but it would be nice to know for sure before we board it back up again! Anybody got any semtex?

Monday's trading was thin with the banking sector hogging what little limelight there was as chatter increased about possible interest rate cuts to come on both sides of the Atlantic. The FTSE100 edged up 22 points. Much the same story emerged on Tuesday, although the rumours were louder. Another small gain saw the main index finish at 6334. A 37 point fall in the FTSE on Wednesday seemed to be triggered by uncertainty about the impact of a 0.5% cut in US interest rates - perhaps traders were hoping for a bigger reduction. Sentiment in London on Thursday was generally negative although the US markets appeared to welcome the rate cut as a signal to buy. The FTSE100 lost a further 45 points with banking and telecomms sectors taking the brunt of the lack of enthusiasm. Friday seemed to be a day for bargain hunting amongst front line stocks and, although many of the gains evaporated as the day progressed, the FTSE100 remained (just about) in positive territory, ending the final session at 6256.


Major upgrades to the systems at ADVFN this week have solved a lot of problems with access and reliability but there is still a more work to do on getting things back to normal. A big surge in activity on the site has made the task even more difficult. As with all major reconstructions, there has to be a settling down period. Let's hope it all comes together soon. When the new shape has been established and bedded in, we should all see improvements. Until then, I guess a little more patience is needed. I would like to think that this time next week I will be able to report an unbroken run of reliable service and a re-establishment of some of the features which are curently in catch-up mode.



The Weekly BB Review

In the dim and distant past, I worked for a subsidiary of what is now Corus Group so I have always followed their antics with interest. As Join in the CORUS and prosper... tells, there was some uncertainty this as to how the City would react to yet more talk of plant closures and restructuring. Sardine's interpretation of the early signs was spot on as the price eventually improved immediately the announcement was made - or maybe it was, as rally suggested, all down to Tempus in The Times who had recommended them as a "sell". The impending merger of Avesta Sheffield (the stainless steel subsidiary)with Outokumpu, announced last week, will also have helped. A 10%+ rise on Thursday and a much prettier chart picture could mean a mini-revival is on the cards. Needs to be watched carefully. The steel industry in general is very depressed at the moment and there is still a world-wide overproduction. Whatever happens, I hope Sardine and Trawler at least make enough to finance the celebration party! At the same time, I have a lot of sympathy for those involved in the closures and redundancies which will follow this rationalisation. The human cost will be much more difficult to calculate than the shareholders' gains.

Its not just a game! Sega Corp. Reportedly Halts Dreamcast gives all of the current news and views on this decision which could have reverberations throughout the computer games industry. As anticiptated in the thread, the news had an immediate impact on Imagination Technologies Group who put out an announcement on Thursday to try to minimise the impact. A 25% fall in share price resulted almost at once! This thread demonstrates that research is always a must. Technet posted the news last week and Forsaken urged one of the BB's fundamentalists to research the impact. Did anyone do that? The initial signals were confusing with a SEGA price rise confounding the news and Solomon and Pippin not sure which way to jump. So last week, the winning direction was long, but for who's benefit? I think cynic may have called it right at the time with "....City boys....letting the small fry play "Sell the fact" before scooping up cheap stock....". Pippin managed to escape with a couple of days supply of champagne but cheve was leaping in where angels feared to tread, hoping a bounce from over-reaction might materialise. (Now that sounds familiar...!) By close of play Thursday, the fall in IMG was over 30% for the day. The dive rate slowed on Friday to only 5% or so but they are still looking very fragile.

There were a few unwelcome shocks for fans of Vocalis this week. First thing Tuesday was an upbeat statement introducing their new "Talking Network" which had the adrenalin rushing and, doubtless, sucked in a lot of new investment. Then, late in the day an announcement that the previous statement had not been authorised by the company's board accompanied by what could only be construed as a profits warning. The price went into free-fall and everyone was left wondering what the hell was going on - as Pippin put it in Vocalis - the power of speech - "...what a bloody mess!" And bloody it was. cheve was one of those caught out be the sudden movement. Hotei had bailed out the previous day as signs began to look bad. There were weak signs of recovery late Thursday and again on Friday as the bottom fishers moved in but I would imagine that this has left a bad taste in the mouth for any holders and it will take more than a few conciliatory words from the management to restore faith in the company. I'm with Hotei and humbugg - best steered clear of. For those caught up in the maelstrom without time to escape, my sincere regrets that companies can act like this with impunity, disregarding the effect their actions can have on shareholders - many of whom are small private investors who can ill afford the losses. The price clawed back to 68p bid by Friday close. Still a long way from the comfort zone.

If you are looking for a chart with a pretty constant upward impetus, take a look at AMEC (AMEC). Engineering management may not be the sexiest sector in town but there is no denying that the growth pattern here is impressive. freelander and rd-racer are certainly impressed and I sense a couple of broad smiles in the background! M.T.Glass was happy to report that the share price has risen 75% in the past six months and is a Shares Magazine tip this week. Any publication which recognises ADVFN as The Best Private Investor Website can't be ignored! :=) Another impressive day on Friday saw the bid price rise to 383p.

Colt Telecom's share price has been up and down like a yo-yo of late. For traders it seems to offer long and short opportunities alternatively on a day-to-day basis. Any new news on CTM Guys?, which Grapsey started in mid January, chronicles the swings with Mad Mac short on Wednesday and Mr LJS long on Thursday. Friday brought a fall of 118p. The problem is how to interpret the data available. The past month could be argued as showing an upward trend but go back any further than that and a completely different picture emerges. Definitely not one for the faint of heart!

Crest Nicholson (CRST) carried on rising this week as news broke in the national press that house price inflation had again burst into life during January. Here Tortoise and yump took different stances on re-rating prospects for the company while Sardine was enjoying the 80% rise in share price since the Autumn. Friday saw the first blip in the upward trend but it was a generally poor day all round and a 2p fall at this stage not too significant. The house building sector is certainly enjoying a renaissance at the moment.

There was a lot of discussion this week on unmetered internet access services, especially following the experience of Anchovy and Lemain who were kicked off Plusnet without warning. (PlusNet ISP Dumps 1000 Users...) ExecLine posted a link to ISP Review which you might find useful. It seems from some of the comments there, that companies are making the rules up as they go along and making arbitrary decisions on who should use their services and how without any correspondence with their customers. In UNmetered Internet Access - who's the best?, shadowman was looking for the same answers as the rest of us. I guess the services will vary a great deal from place to place - I envy those who have access to ADSL - but it is worth shopping around and checking out ISP Review before plunging into new deals. A good thread here which covers just about all of the possibilities and at the same time demonstrates that BBers like to help BBers whenever possible.

The Six Nations Rugby Union Fiesta is again upon us and all of a sudden Dil is discovering Welsh cousins all over the BB. With an English father, Scottish mother, Irish grand-daddy and having resided in France long enough to enjoy their passion for the game first-hand, I suppose I can change my allegiance with impunity as the results demand - provided Wales or Italy don't upset things. Not that I'm sitting on any fences, mind.... I dare say all the results will be posted here as they happen - WALES v England : They'll Be Singing & Dancing In The Valleys This Time Next Week - unless of course, Wales lose, in which case they'll probably be 20 minutes delayed! Passions are aroused enough to have Martini spouting Shakespeare and Bullie taking a break (no pun intended) from skiing to search out a bar in France which will be showing the game live. Pommy's just interested in finding the best odds and it sounds as though Mealiff has been sniffing his ladies football team's embrocation! Now, where's that big plastic leek I used to have.....?

Meanwhile, in the Land of the Free.......

Paul Augustus was inspired enough by a MoneyChannel interview with the CEO to open PipeHawk - Any Views (PIP) Not one to give up easily, he discovered some news coverage linking the company's unique radar probe system to company's such as Railtrack and Southern Water. Just what was needed - a few recognisable names on the CV. bj444 sounded highly delighted - especially when the price began to move rather rapidly northwards this week. Although hightone had picked up a reference to the company in last weekend's Mail, mod was a tad peeved that the entry in Shares Magazine had not included the EPIC and he had missed it. The picture looks good and the progress continues. I'm just surprised that so little interest has been shown on the BBs. Maybe this mention will prompt them to take a look! Certainly a must for my Monitor.

A former darling of the BBs, Rage Software now finds itself friendless and unloved. Even today's national press was doom and gloom about prospects. Woz was looking for support in Rage Software - Time to buy? 9.75p... and received some from markatarn, adrianbatchelor and iph123, although Chef was right in counselling caution and expecting some big sales to cover the rush of small buying. MCDONALDG was grateful - at least for an explanation of where the information is to be found. I still have painful memories of this one when it was last at this price level. Have a look at the chart and the recent newsflow guys. There is nothing in the world to recommend buying in at the moment. The only improvement this week has been the reduction of the spread as dealers find an excess of shares on their hands. With the demise of Dreamcast, I suppose it could lead to renewed interest in Sony's Playstation and Rage's software. But there are too many unknowns to tempt me.

The share performance of Marconi has always been hard to read and even harder to predict. Just take a look at the trading range over the last twelve months. GARYCOOK was interested enough to start MARCONI ON THE UP this week and found support from Sausage advocating the sensible line of waiting for a better buy oportunity before diving in. The improvement early in the week quickly dissipated. tigerman was looking at support around the 700p mark and stallion was upbeat enough to advocate buying to hold longer term, rather than bow out with a "meagre" profit at 850p. benavig was baffled by the later fall in price, against the background of continued buying and CURRYPASTY expects more downside before any reversal. All-in-all, the BB sentiment was positive but, with the last major support level now dangerously close, it will be a brave man to predict how low it will go before there is any sign of a bounce. For me, this is a spectator sport only until there is some sign of a prolonged period of market stability to bring back confidence to the sector.



This week's Poster of the Week prize goes to zzaxx99 who has single-handedly maintained a comprehensive appraisal of GlaxoSmithKline in GlaxoSmithKline - It's Alive!. What he doesn't know about the company just isn't worth knowing. Congratulations zzaxx99! If you will e-mail me a delivery address, I will see that your prize finds it way to you very soon.


Good Hunting!

The ADVFN Who's Who is still growing steadily and is now a quite long list. (I still have a couple of entries to add which will be done over the weekend - apologies for the delay!) If you haven't sent me your bio yet, please drop me a few lines about yourself - a full editing service is provided! No e-mail addresses are published unless specifically requested.