Enjoyed the big moon this week on the clear frosty nights but it was disappointing that on the evening of the lunar eclipse, there was a little too much cloud to see the best of it. Talking of clouds, we have a new barmaid at the pub this week. Tall, blonde, very efficient - but with all the charisma of a packet of cheeese & onion crisps. No chance of getting rid though as she's the daughter of one of the biggest customers who just happens to be a local councillor. As soon as I discovered that I realised why she was such a boring f**t. Our place is used as a post-council-meeting watering hole and when I hear some of the crap which our local dignitaries expound on those occasions when they meet, I realise why local government is in such a mess and why local amenities are so poor. If they spent half as much time and money on local services as they do on buying each other drinks, the place could be Utopia. I think this must be the only place in the country where the mayor (bless 'er) is banned from two of our biggest hotels for unruly behaviour! Who says seaside towns are boring?
It was a poor week for system problems - both here and across the internet generally - as some major failures occurred which screwed up more than one ISP. I gather a lot of mail has gone walkabout too. I hope you weren't too badly hit but must admit that I came close to depositing my PC in the garden pool on more than one occasion. Tomj is going to have to find a few new phrases of explanation and apology. I think we all got a bit bored with the regulars this week. I think it was Oscar Wilde who first brought the expression to the UK following one of his US lecture tours - he saw it in a western saloon he visited - "Don't shoot the pianist, he's doing the best he can!"
The trading week began gentilely enough, considering the hammering the US markets took on Friday night. I think it was anticipated that London would follow but in fact the FTSE100 managed a 46 point gain. A different story emerged on Tuesday as disappointing future prospects announced by Nokia punched a hole in Vodafone's progress and pulled the main index down over 60 points. The market remained cautious throughout that day and the next as the headache continued. Although the FTSE100 drifted off another 27 points on Wednesday, selected technology and retail stocks looked quite buoyant. Thursday was another positive day for first line stocks, despite the fall from grace of a couple of high profile retailers which had a slight damping effect on the market as a whole. Friday saw some good signs that the month might not be the disaster it started out to be with enough blue arrows about to pacify most BBers. Second-line stocks and the TechMARK did particularly well.
The latest in the series of Dodddy & Smellys London Nights Out is scheduled for 15th February and has already drawn a big crowd in anticipation of an even better bash than the last - which was, by all accounts, a stonking occasion. Register early to avoid disappointment! The event is City based and if you can't make it, don't forget that The Bristol & South West Focus Group is holding its next meeting on the evening of Tuesday 13th February in Taunton, Somerset and The Northern Ireland Focus Group meets at Cookstown on Friday 23rd if either of those are more accessible venues or more suitable dates.
The Weekly BB Review
Baltimore anyone? (BLM) might have brought a lot of painful memories back for some BBers having seen them tumble from grace bigtime. Having made a brief recovery to the 900p mark last summer, it has largely been a downward slide since then. However, markready asked the question and received the anticipated responses with blackday sounding very negative about short-term prospects. At the same time rd-racer produced the news that JP Morgan were taking a buy stance on the stock with an optimistic target price. MH echoed a lot of our thoughts when he questioned whether the markets had any clue how to value technlogy stocks in general. Viren still rates them a quality stock and, I must say, if you look at the (growing) list of high profile clients for their software security products and the list of business partners, you have to be impressed. And this is an area where there is still a big market for expansion. Any company intending to do business on the internet needs to address security issues up-front and Baltimore's toolset products are amongst the best around. The share price is now back to pre-goldrush days and one might easily assume that the only way is up! I'd like to see an established improvement pattern over a longer period before getting too involved but this week's recovery was very impressive. They are bound to be volatile while the NASDAQ is still so jittery.
Capitalist began Seymour Pierce - rising in anticipation (SYP) back in November and despite a fair set of results and lots of encouraging press, the price is more-or-less where it was then. It has been a spikey ride, complicated by the company's penchant for funding acquisitions by issuing new stock. Capitalist remains confident of longer term prospects but seems only to have lrguk for company at present.
I know nothing thought it was about time oil was back on the menu and resurrected Clueless's OIL-WATCH thread this week to check out the current level of interest. With oily issues much in the public view in recent months and the price of crude on a roller-coaster ride, it was probably about time to take a broader view of the industry. With Saudia Arabia (reportedly) poised to try to drive up the price again, maybe dcarn will see the re-rating he thinks is due. Big Al 39, who works in the North Sea and thus is closer to the black stuff than most of us, has some interesting observations to make but, like a lot of others, including hindsight and Acol, sees Soco International as the most interesting play. SandyBooth and selber82 from the FBB are similarly interested (SOCO - when to get in?) and we know that Picguru has held this one in some esteem for a long time! Soco International tells that story!
To break the boredom of constant profit making on equities (:=)), some BBers are turning to Currency Trading for their kicks. Spiceboy kicked off the thread before Christmas and it has since grown quite a following. With the Euro firming in recent weeks and pressure building on the US Dollar (during the election fiasco), there has been a nice volatile spell for traders. It is an area where you need to do your homework thoroughly before getting involved. Luckily, there are some tools out there to help you. If you visit Forex trading, there is an opportunity to phantom trade $100,000 to see how you fare. (Thanks Spiceboy!) The site offers an abundance of news and information to back up your decision-making. Another to take a look at is HotspotFX (Thanks BRAVE) which also has a demo site. Dead Cat Bounce has been playing - with mixed results - and Limpsfield Chartist has all the charts at hand to help. As mentioned during the thread, Forex trading can become quite addictive and, although margins can seem attractive compared to equity trading, movements can be swift and unpredictable. Mr. Greenspan's recent antics did a little more than just shake the trees! If you are going to get involved, take care and take time for plenty of dry trading first!
What began as a tongue-in-cheek bit of fun from Gausie - Stocks which will halve by the end of Feb01 - has turned into a more serious and competitive thread than anyone could ever have imagined. With almost 200 postings, it was also one of the busiest threads of the week. (Chances of this being "least popular thread of the year" are pretty remote. Ain't it funny that when you begin looking for potential losers, you find fortunes change and they turn into winners? SpiceBoy has created the mechanism for tracking progress (or regress ?) and team lists are posted regularly. Last time I peeked, the wah and jackrussel were heading the list as the only ones to actually have share selections which had lost money. Gausie's selection of Torotrak has done wonders for the share price which is up over 50%! Great stuff!
Just2Clicks.com - big discount to cash (JTK) saw StewJames in an attempt to establish a "fair" value for the company - forgetting the hype and the bad press for all dotcoms. ghhghh was of similar mind, estimating that, unless there were some hidden pitfalls, the NAV (including cash in hand) would value the shares at around 50p, rather than the 27.5p they were at the time he posted. When the results were published on Thursday, there were no big surprises and the CEO confirmed that cash reserves were still substantial (50p per share) and that cash-burn was well under control. Press treatment was extreme, as might have been expected, I suppose, with silly headlines like "Just 2 Clicks away from failure", as MrWildjuice pointed out. A more measured response from the MoneyGuru site put a more optimisitic interpretation to the news. A boost in volumes also boosted the price to 31p bid which it held through the final session of the week. yump summed it up well with "....given the difficult intellectual challenge of coming up with a clever headline, you can't expect journos to get the facts right as well ;-)" Given the work in hand and the potential for revenue, I consider this a good candidate for my Monitor.
We seem to have had quite a few new names appearing on the PBB over the last couple of weeks, perhaps related to the time some of the more established users are spending on the FBB. Just a few I have noted - JohnKemp, superrod, sharestriker, £note, mcpaulas and lancslad. Welcome aboard guys. I hope you find the site as useful as you hoped. You will certainly find no shortage of BBers to offer you advice. Why not send me a brief bio for inclusion in the Who's Who? (see foot of page for details). To those new users I have missed out - apologies and welcome!
Don't overlook crocodile's PC & MAC CLINIC - On line problem solving thread if you are experiencing any problems of a technical nature. I know from experience that this is the time of year when a lot of machines are upgraded and changed as the latest models and features become cheaper after the Christmas blast and, invariably, there is a problem somewhere along the line. If you need help, don't be afraid to shout out!
Martini was at it again this week with his animations. A really inspired and very clever entry in ADVFN in Bid talks???????? If only!! (Take time to see the whole process!)
For the insomniacs amongst you, there is possible help on the way in the form of Hello anyone awake??????? which has recently been resurrected and turned into a nightly meeting place. The conversation is often non-investment related and a flak-jacket is a must, but if you find yourself bored in the early hours, there is usually someone about to tell your troubles to or pick a fight with!
Meanwhile, in the Land of the Free.......
We seem to have been waiting an age to see some positive signs of progress from Telewest Communications but the last couple of weeks saw some action. WESTHAM's subtle ramping in TELEWEST-IS THIS THE START OF SOMETHING GOOD?, COLT TELECOM IN FOR TELEWEST?? and TELEWEST-STILL IT RISES-BID NEWS SURELY DUE !! only served to open old wounds. There have been plenty of rumours to account for the share price bound and the renewed interest in telecomms generally has certainly helped, as diego suggests. eteda01, having bought in at just over 100p was happy to sit and wait but there are many others in much less comfortable positions. portiere seemed to have decided enough was enough. Whatever the final outcome, after a shaky start on Friday, the share price regained its northward march to end the week at 136p bid. Maybe there is a second swallow in sight after all!
Old friend Danka Business Systems has been showing signs of life after a long and painful fall from grace. Its landing of a mulli-million dollar supply deal, announced at the beginning of the month, gave the share price some impetus. colinvest was maybe being a bit ambitious in seeing a breakout of the downward spiral so soon (DANKA BUSINESS (DNK) - Classic chart breakout @ 17p. His words "...one swallow does not make a summer...." must be ringing in his ears now. This week saw the share fall away as a mixture of profit-taking and poor US sentiment dragged it back down. Tony14 was wise enough to lock in some profit early in the week and is looking at a sub 10p buy-back target. It might arrive sooner than we think. So long as DNK carries on living from hand to mouth and lacking substantive and sustained revenue flow, there will always be more doubters than fans, I fear.
Smart Buying ... began in December when GLOBE hinted that things were about to happen. It took a while but Knowledge Management Software got there in the end. After its low-point last week, the share price has managed to pick itself off the floor on the back of increasing volumes this week. wanabee was tempted early this week (GLOBE remained insistent that they were a good bet!) and shush took the trouble to speak to the CEO to confirm the present trading stance which sounded positive. Mark Watts and Master RSI joined the fan club on Friday as the price rise gained momentum with nishi joining the fun and adding the rumour that the Evening Standard was carrying a piece on the company in today's edition. I couldn't see anything in the online edition, but.... With volumes over two million, they gained 6.5p on Friday. @@@@
Clinton Cards took a lot of people by surprise with a very upbeat trading statement on Thursday. BuyBuyBuyBye sounded confident that this would be the case when posting on Clinton Cards..any views on value at the beginning on the trading year. Nice call. clocktower and amulkern were suitably delighted to see the price rise immediately the market opened on Thursday. The improvement continued well on Friday following glowing press and looks likely to hold, allowing for the usual profit-taking, pending publication of results in April - unless there is a catastrophe around the corner of which we are not yet aware which seems unlikely.
This week's Poster of the Week prize goes to Gausie who, much to his surprise, began a snowball rolling which was never intended. I think the Stocks which will halve by the end of Feb01 thread will run and run. Congratulations Gausie! If you will e-mail me a delivery address, I will see that your prize finds it way to you very soon.
Good Hunting!
The ADVFN Who's Who is still growing steadily and is now a quite long list. All entries received to date have been included. If you haven't sent me your bio yet, please drop me a few lines about yourself - a full editing service is provided! No e-mail addresses are published unless specifically requested.
(As the list has now grown so long, I hope to have an index/search facility built-in soon to make it easier to find individuals)