Mock draft: An early look at 2004

By Chris Bahr - SportingNews.com

It was cold, it was dark by 4:20 p.m. and it was just downright crappy outside. So, what better to do on Dec. 2 than jam eight members of our fantasy baseball team into a conference room -- and connect with four others on the phone -- for a 12-team mock draft? It's not as crazy as it sounds, since we currently are working on our 2004 Fantasy Baseball Owners Manual.

We spent just under three hours going through 24 rounds of picks for a 5x5 league (batting average, homers, RBIs, runs and steals; wins, saves, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts). We each took two catchers, one first baseman, one second baseman, one shortstop, one third baseman, one corner infielder, one middle infielder, five outfielders, one utility player, nine pitchers (minimum of two relievers, maximum of three) and one prospect (player with rookie status entering the 2004 season). We picked in typical "snake" fashion.

For simplicity's sake, I only included the first 10 rounds of the mock draft here. If you want all 24 (and we know you do), you'll have to wait for the Fantasy Baseball Owners Manual to hit newsstands. So, here are our experts, their first 10 picks and some brief comments from yours truly. I'll try not to be too harsh, but I'm the lucky one who gets the first crack at picking these rosters apart.

Hopefully, this will help you in your early draft preparation, as well as help you through the next couple of winter months when the only baseball you'll see comes from ESPN Classic.

First impression: Solid at the top. Right away, you've got a little bit of everything with A-Rod's overall game, Ichiro's speed/average/runs, Rivera's bullpen dominance and the Big Unit's power game.
Lock: A-Rod. How can you not pick him first? He is an MVP in MLB and fantasy leagues.
Reach: Millwood. OK, so the fifth round isn't exactly a reach, but his inconsistency scares me.
Steal: Lee. He swatted 31 homers, scored 100 runs and drove in 113 last season, while stealing 18 bases and hitting .291. Not bad for the seventh round.

First impression: Who needs an infield? I had four outfielders in my first eight picks.
Lock: Pujols. Barring an injury (I think I just jinxed him), he only will get better.
Reach: Bagwell. His production has slipped a bit the past couple of years, and his 40-homer, 130-RBI days could be over.
Steal: Pineiro. A workhorse whose ERA and WHIP will improve as he enters his prime.

First impression: Can he swing a deal for Marcus Giles? He already has Brian Giles and both Boone brothers.
Lock: Garciaparra. He is in a contract year and wants to prove his late-season/postseason slump in 2003 was a fluke.
Reach: Giles. After four seasons of 30-plus homers, he hit just 20 in 2003 and drove in just 88. Perhaps the Padres' new park will help.
Steal: Hinske. His sophomore slump is behind him, and that lineup still has plenty of pop. Great value in the 10th round.

First impression: This guy must hate the AL. Never mind the fact that he grabbed six pitchers in the first 10 rounds, he took just one AL player in that span.
Lock: Bonds. He shows no signs of slowing down and still is the most feared hitter in the game. The only concern: too many walks.
Reach: There really isn't one -- and I'm not just saying that because Rawlings literally could walk over here in less than a minute and whack me with a Louisville Slugger.
Steal: Dotel. He lasted until the ninth round, though he should be among the major-league leaders in saves. Yes, he is a bit unproven in the role, but he certainly has the stuff.

First impression: God bless the NL Central. Five of Gatto's 10 players come from the division.
Lock: Prior. He'll give you everything but saves -- and he'll do it sensationally.
Reach: Chipper. It has been a couple of seasons since he hit 30 homers, though he is a lock for 100 RBIs. I'm also concerned with how the Braves will replace Gary Sheffield's bat and how that will affect Jones.
Steal: Sure, he has to stay healthy, but Miller is 27 and has 20-win potential. The bandbox he plays in is concern, but his ERA was actually better at home last season (3.94) than on the road (4.30).

First impression: Really good or really bad. There is plenty of upside, but plenty of risk. Glaus and Hoffman are coming off injuries, Pedro always hits the DL and Lopez and Loaiza had career years.
Lock: Gagne. The dude has 107 saves in 111 opportunities the past two seasons. The Dodgers are always in tight games, so he'll continue to get chances. Plus, he struck out 137 hitters in 82.1 innings last season.
Reach: Loaiza. OK, he isn't a reach in most people's minds, but I'm one of those people who believe Loiaza had a dream season that will be all but forgotten by June. He never had won more than 11 games before last season.
Steal: Wolf. Both he and teammate Vicente Padilla slipped in our draft, but Wolf won 16 games last season with pretty good numbers (sans ERA).

First impression: Look at me, I can be center field. With Edmonds, Damon and Hunter, he has the market cornered.
Lock: Hudson. What's not to like about the guy? He has tossed 200-plus innings four consecutive seasons, has a great WHIP and ERA, strikes out about 160 hitters and could win 20 games.
Reach: It's hard to find one. In fact, I guess I should commend Kint for not reaching for Yankees, seeing how he is a die-hard fan.
Steal: Hunter. If he gets his stolen bases back up, he'll be a complete threat. Last season wasn't a true measuring stick.

First impression: His draft strategy was clear: Draft all of the Jasons (Giambi, Schmidt and Varitek). And, no, he didn't grab Simontacchi later in the draft.
Lock: Schilling. His won-loss total from last season is deceiving. He still put up great numbers and will be healthy this season. Few AL hitters have seen him, and he'll have a ton of run support.
Reach: Green. I know his shoulder injury played a big part in his 2003 woes, but 65th just seems a bit high. However, Green could be the steal of any draft if he turns those doubles back into homers.
Steal: Ramirez. A blossoming star who will thrive at Wrigley. After the trade to Chicago, he hit 15 of his 27 homers.

First impression: The Silver Bullets. Two of Wheeler's first three picks play at Coors Field, and that is never a bad idea.
Lock: Helton. His homer and RBI totals have dipped a bit, but that is hardly a concern for a guy this productive. Expect those totals to rise again.
Reach: If I had to pick one, I'd take Blalock. The fifth round seems a bit early for a guy who has one year under his belt and whose team has lost a lot of pop (and could lose more).
Steal: Zambrano. On any other team, this guy would get a ton of hype. On the Cubs, he is "just" a third starter. This will be a true breakout year.

First impression: Under the radar. This team is loaded with several great players who never seem to get any attention. That is just how fantasy owners like it because they can get top players who slip through the cracks.
Lock: Delgado. Seriously, 42 homers and 145 RBIs?!? And those kinds of stats aren't even unusual for him. He also has played at least 161 games in three of the past four seasons.
Reach: Beckett. I'm not sold yet, even after that fantastic postseason. I still think there could be some growing pains ahead.
Steal: Cabrera. Another young Marlin with plenty of upside. I've heard many people call him a young Manny Ramirez (in terms of offense), and I'd have to agree based on what I've seen so far.

First impression: Good hitting beats good pitching. London didn't draft a pitcher until the seventh round.
Lock: Sosa. That lineup provides a ton of protection for him, and you are guaranteed 40 homers. Once he got past the slow start and cork scandal last season, he really took off.
Reach: Chavez. It is his show now in Oakland, and I worry that the same thing that happened to Miguel Tejada could happen to him.
Steal: Pettitte. He is a borderline No. 1 starter, held back only by his ERA and WHIP.

First impression: Speed kills. And you gotta love the back-to-back picks of Podsednik and Baldelli.
Lock: Halladay. With 41 wins in the past two seasons, he is as close as they come to a sure thing. He will provide great numbers in every category but saves and has led the league in innings pitches the past two season.
Reach: Cabrera. Not a bad pick by any means, but Tejada was still available (and went with the next pick).
Steal: Young. There aren't a lot of solid options at the position, so this pick looks even better. He does it all (106 runs, 14 homers, 72 RBIs, .306 average and 13 steals in 2003).

Associate editor Chris Bahr is a fantasy baseball expert for Sporting News.